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Michael Penix Jr. Dynasty Value

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In November 2020, Michael Penix Jr. tore his right ACL for the second time in his college career. Despite not receiving medical clearance, he would start the 2021 season for Indiana.

It didn’t go well.

They went much better after a transfer to Washington. So well that Penix became the biggest surprise of NFL Draft weekend.

But is an older QB with an extensive injury history worth your investment in dynasty?

Michael Penix Jr. Dynasty Values

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Michael Penix Jr. Draft Profile

Michael Penix Jr. Pro Day Results

Michael Penix Jr. College Stats

Penix Joins the Hoosiers

Penix played QB for Tampa Bay Technical High School, putting up 4,243 yards passing and 61 TDs in his two years as starter. Throwing to Under Armour All-American WR Daquon Green put Penix on the radar of several prominent colleges.

As a three-star recruit, he had offers from USF, Florida State, and later Oregon. Penix committed to Tennessee at the end of his junior year, but a coaching change left Penix without a school. 

He would ultimately commit to Indiana after they pursued him hard. (Penix later commented that his dad didn’t understand the choice.)

Injuries Plague Early Career

Penix backed up starter Peyton Ramsey in 2018, but he was too talented to keep off the field. The Hoosiers implemented packages for Penix to add a dynamic QB threat to the offense. 

Unfortunately, he tore his right ACL against Penn State in October.

Penix came back strong and won the starting job for 2019. But Penix would only play in six games that season. 

He missed two for undisclosed reasons and another for an undisclosed injury. A fractured right clavicle on Nov. 2 against Northwestern ended his season.

Penix returned as starter for 2020 and impressed with his 5-TD performance against Ohio State. 

On Nov. 28, though, he tore his right ACL for the second time (against Maryland).

His 2021 return fell victim to an October A/C joint separation in his left shoulder.

He entered the transfer portal shortly after the season.

Penix Transfers to Washington

Despite the multitude of injuries, Penix was a hot name in the transfer portal. He took a visit to South Florida but decided to join his former OC Kalen DeBoer in Washington.  

The results were electrifying. Penix jelled with OC Ryan Grubb (now OC for the Seahawks).

The Huskies went a surprising 11-2. Penix threw for 4,641 yards and 31 TDs. He drew national attention with a 408-yard performance against No. 15 Oregon. 

Most importantly, he did not get hurt.

Run at a National Championship

Washington returned a loaded roster for 2023, with Penix dishing passes to Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan. 

Penix earned Heisman-finalist status, throwing for 4,903 yards and 36 TDs. He and his star receivers made it to the title game before getting battered by Michigan.

Penix looked uncomfortable throwing the ball in that game against the Wolverines’ constant pressure. Numerous passes missed the mark amid regular miscommunications with his WRs. (More on that later.)

Pro Day Eye Opener

Penix was not expected to work out due to his injury history. But he decided to run the 40-yard dash and do vertical and broad jumps at his Pro Day.

The QB delivered surprising results.

Penix ran a 4.58-second 40 time with a 36.5-inch vertical and a 10’5 broad jump. He tested in the 97th percentile for QBs, showcasing his athleticism despite multiple knee surgeries.

Michael Penix Jr. Highlights

Games Watched: UCLA (2022), Oregon (2022), Texas (2022), Boise State (2023), Michigan State (2023), Cal (2023), Oregon State (2023), Arizona (2023), Oregon (2023), Texas (2023), Michigan (2023)

The highlights showcase Penix’s arm talent and upside as a passer. The best plays make him look like a Top 10 pick.

But, does the full film show red flags that could derail his career? 

Penix Hits His Targets

The Washington offense was built on a “levels” concept, to put their WRs at varying levels on the field and give the QB a wide-open option.

When that comes to fruition, Penix easily identifies the best target and throws the ball accurately to his WR, often in stride.

Even when a WR does not get open, Penix identifies single coverage and places the ball where his WR can go up and get it.

He embraces the jump ball, utilizing his WR group’s best talents, and rarely throws a pass significantly off target.

In the play above, Penix uses motion to recognize the zone coverage. Knowing the deep safety will need to cover the middle, he sets up a pass to the deep level.

Penix rolls onto his front foot and launches the ball accurately into the end zone, perfectly in front of his WR.

Penix’s highlights are littered with similar passes.

QB Dazzles Downfield

Throwing accurately is great, but having a QB who can do that deep is exceptional.

When Washington set up a one-on-one matchup down the field, Penix took advantage with his powerful arm. These deep shots not only resulted in TDs often, but they also kept defenses on their heels.

 Downfield arm strength is not an issue.

Against Cal, Washington often used a far-side stack to isolate a corner on Odunze.

Odunze runs a banana route as Penix looks off the deep safety to freeze him slightly. Penix tosses the ball 50 yards with ease to Odunze’s outside shoulder.

Odunze needs to make an athletic catch, but Penix placed the ball where it was not at risk for an INT. 

These downfield passes are a staple of Penix’s game.

Penix Delivers with Compact Release

Throwing the ball accurately down the field is great, but if a QB doesn’t have consistent mechanics, it may not translate to the NFL.

As a left-handed thrower, Penix’s release can look a bit wonky on film. But he transitions quickly between setting his feet and beginning his release.

Though he swings his arm back fairly far, the release stays compact with little horizontal movement.

This allows Penix to deliver the ball at a consistent velocity and pinpoint his accuracy.

Michigan’s edge rushers crashed the pocket throughout the game, often pushing the tackles into Penix.

In the clip above, Penix anticipates the pressure, despite being in no real danger of being sacked. He quickens his feet and ends up throwing off his back foot. 

This causes the pass to sail slightly, missing a potential huge play down the field.

From Sam Darnold to Zach Wilson, plenty of highly drafted QBs have failed due to their inability to handle pressure.

Michael Penix Jr. Team Fit: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons shocked everyone by selecting Penix eighth overall. Given that Atlanta just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal with $100 million guaranteed, the 24-year old Penix might have to sit for multiple seasons.

One positive: Penix does fit the new scheme. OC Zac Robinson brings Sean McVay’s system, which asks the QB to work off play action to freeze defenders in the wide zone.

This often results in less pressure plus hesitation or isolation in the secondary. Though it will be a much different route system from Washington’s, Penix will be able to use his presnap knowledge to anticipate which WRs will come open.

He will have to move more because of the wide-zone play action which may be a concern with his knee injury history.

Though the team may look very different in a few years when Penix gets to start, having Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London will help.

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Penix being drafted eighth overall would typically increase his value sharply – and it certainly did boost his score in our rookie model. 

But, being stuck behind Cousins – potentially for multiple seasons – hurts. And it dings Penix further given that he’s old for a rookie (24).

The lack of anticipated starts makes him nearly worthless in 1-QB leagues. And Penix doesn’t look worth the wait (at expected draft cost) even in your superflex league. 

Add in a lack of rushing upside, and Penix is a mediocre fantasy asset despite the draft capital. 

Perhaps Cousins gets hurt again and allows Penix to start sooner. But even in that case, we’d have questions about his upside.

Penix sits a clear sixth among QBs in our superflex rookie rankings. We don’t project him as a Round 1 rookie draft pick in that format.

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.