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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Grab this St. Louis Ram

Last year’s treasure is this year’s trash.

A hotshot rookie last summer, Rams WR Tavon Austin was coming off the board in the 7^th round of most fantasy drafts. After a disappointing debut season, he can now be had in the 9th or 10th.

No player was hyped more than Austin leading up to last year’s NFL Draft. And there was plenty of reason to be excited about his fantasy potential.

Austin was a stat-piling machine in college. He topped 100 catches in each of his final 2 seasons. Austin’s 114 grabs in 2012 matched teammate Stedman Bailey for 2nd most in the country and a West Virginia single-season record.

After tallying 1,186 receiving yards in 2011, Austin went for 1,289 in 2012 -- 11th most in the country. He posted a career-high 12 receiving TDs in 2012 after 8 in each of the previous 2 years.

Austin was also a major threat on the ground. He totaled 388 rushing yards and 3 scores in his first 3 seasons. Then he exploded for 643 yards and 3 TDs in 2012. He averaged a juicy 9.5 yards per carry for his career.

Austin tacked on 5 more TDs in the return game: 4 on kickoffs and 1 on a punt. He finished his college career with 40 total scores.

A sizzling Combine performance only boosted his stock higher. Austin blazed a 4.34-second 40-yard dash. Only 1 guy at the entire event was faster. Austin's 10-yard split and 20-yard shuttle times were both 2nd among WRs.

Austin was selected with the 8th overall pick of last year’s draft and seemed primed for a big rookie year. That didn’t happen. He finished with 40 catches, 418 yards and 4 TDs. He added 151 yards and a score on 9 carries and also hit pay dirt on a punt return. Still, he finished 54th among WRs in non-PPR fantasy leagues and 56th in PPR.

So what went wrong?

Austin appeared to have trouble adjusting to the NFL game. His speed wasn’t as big a difference-maker as it was in college. Austin had an 81-yard catch and runs of 56 and 65 yards. But only 5 of his 40 grabs went for 20+ yards. He averaged just 10.4 yards per catch.

Austin also had some trouble with drops, especially early in the season. He dropped 5 of 45 catchable balls, giving him a drop rate of 11.1% that ranked 67th among 94 qualifying WRs. All 5 of Austin’s drops came in his first 5 games, though, so we can attribute that to settling into the NFL game.

Austin’s size was also an issue in 2013 and will remain an issue going forward. As electric as he is, the fact remains that he’s 5’8 and 176 pounds. Very few WRs that small develop into elite players. In fact, only 1 WR 5’8 or shorter has ever topped 830 receiving yards in a season. None has scored more than 8 TDs. Austin will need to beat the odds to emerge as a big-time pass-catching threat.

His elite speed, quickness and versatility still give him a shot to put up useful fantasy numbers, though. It’s up to the Rams coaching staff to maximize Austin’s value. He’s not a prototypical WR that lines up outside the numbers and makes plays. Austin is more of a gadget player that needs to be moved around the formation and get touches on screens, handoffs, end-arounds, reverses, etc.

Last year, Austin ran 80% of his routes from the slot. His catch rate from the inside (57.7%) was actually much lower than his catch rate from all other spots (76.9%). The Rams need to move Austin out of the slot more often this season.

They might also want to send him deep more often. Austin was targeted just 7 times on passes 20+ yards downfield, but he caught 3 of them. That 42.9% catch rate led the WRs on a team that completed just 34% of its total passes of 20+ yards. Austin turned his 3 deep grabs into 113 yards and 1 TD. He’s not the traditional big downfield WR, but his speed makes him tough to contain.

Most importantly, though, the Rams need to get Austin more touches on the ground. He received just 9 carries last year but turned them into 151 yards and a score. That’s 16.8 yards per carry. That average was inflated by 56 and 65-yarders, but those big plays aren’t a fluke.

So those are our recommendations to the Rams coaching staff on how Austin needs to be deployed this season. We’ll see what HC Jeff Fisher and OC Brian Schottenheimer come up with.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Austin came up well short of the lofty expectations fantasy owners had for him last year. The good news is that he’s coming cheaper in drafts this summer. Austin is feeling more comfortable in the offense this offseason and should be better in his 2nd pro campaign. Hopefully the Rams will do a better job of putting him in a position to succeed. Don’t draft Austin as more than a WR4, but he certainly has the potential to emerge as a high-upside WR3.

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.