Adam Thielen Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Thielen tallied 48 catches for 615 yards and five TDs across 10 games last year. He ranked 29th among WRs in PPR points per game.

Thielen missed Weeks 4 through 10 with a hamstring injury. He caught eight balls for 109 yards and a score in three games before going down, ranking 55th among WRs in PPR points.

He was much more productive post-injury, racking up 40 catches for 506 yards and four scores over his final seven games. Only 11 WRs scored more PPR points than Thielen over that stretch. The run included a pair of top-eight weekly finishes and four games inside the top 24 WRs.

Usage & Role

A healthy Thielen was a near full-time player for Carolina last year, posting a 78% route rate across his 10 games.

He averaged 6.2 targets per game on a 19.0% target share for the season, ranking 43rd among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

Over his final seven outings, Thielen climbed to 7.1 targets per game and a 21.6% target share. He ranked 29th at the position in expected PPR points per game over that stretch.

Efficiency Metrics

Thielen’s 77.4% catch rate last year ranked third among 89 WRs with 50+ targets. He was charged with only two drops.

Thielen averaged just 12.8 yards per catch but still posted 9.9 yards per target. That was his best mark since 2016 and ranked 10th among those 89 qualifying WRs. He finished 23rd in yards per route (2.06) and 31st in Pro Football Focus receiving grade (76.5).

Thielen was even more efficient over his final seven games:

• 10.1 yards per target
• 2.25 yards per route
• 78.7 PFF grade

Offensive Context

Thielen played in a bad Panthers offense that ranked:

• 31st in plays
• 23rd in points
• 29th in total yards
• 30th in passing yards
• 30th in yards per pass attempt
• 16th in passing TDs

QB Bryce Young played better over the second half of the season, coinciding with Thielen’s uptick in production. But Carolina still averaged only 212 passing yards over the final seven games. That would have ranked 21st over the entire season.

Historical Production & Trends

Thielen has averaged 13.5 and 14.0 PPR points per game across his two seasons with the Panthers, finishing top-30 among WRs both years.

He did it with volume in 2023, averaging 8.1 targets per game on a 23.4% share. Efficiency carried him last year, with Thielen posting his best yards per target since 2016 and his best yards per route since 2019.

Injury History

Thielen has only missed time with injury in three of 11 NFL seasons — but all three of those have come over the last six years.

He missed five games in 2019 with a hamstring injury, four games in 2021 with a high-ankle sprain, and seven games with a hamstring injury last year.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Panthers spent the eighth overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Tetairoa McMillan. Draft capital and talent make him a strong bet for an every-down role right away.

That’d leave Thielen to battle for playing time with WRs Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and Hunter Renfrow. Legette underwhelmed as a rookie last year but has draft capital on his side after going 32nd overall in the 2024 draft. Coker went undrafted last year but led Panthers WRs with 10.4 yards per target. Renfrow returns after missing all of 2024 due to a bout with ulcerative colitis.

Thielen has run over 70% of his routes from the slot for the Panthers over the last two years, so he’s likely battling with Coker and Renfrow for that role.

Supporting Cast

The biggest question in Carolina this year is which version of Bryce Young we’ll get.

The No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft had a historically inefficient rookie season, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with a 2.1% TD rate. Last year didn’t start out any better, and Young was benched after Week 2.

But he returned in Week 8 and played much better the rest of the way.

Over his final 10 games, Young averaged:

• 210.4 passing yards
• 1.5 passing TDs
• 0.6 INTs

He still ranked just 26th in completion rate and 27th in yards per attempt over those final 10 games. But he ranked sixth among 35 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales is just a year removed from helping revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. He also served as Seahawks QBs coach for Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season. Canales still looks like a positive for Young’s development — and, therefore, Thielen’s fantasy outlook.

It’s worth noting that Canales’ 2023 Bucs team produced a pair of top-30 PPR WRs, with Mike Evans finishing WR7 and Chris Godwin WR29.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Thielen turns 35 in August. Our aging-curve research says to expect just 60% of peak production from 35-year-old WRs.

Thielen has already bucked traditional aging curves, though. In fact, his 14.0 PPR points per game last year were the 29th most in NFL history by a WR 34 or older.