Garrett Wilson Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Wilson set career highs in catches (101), yards (1,104), and TDs (7) last year.

He finished as a top-12 fantasy WR in three weeks (WR5, WR2, WR2) with only four weekly finishes outside the top-30.

In total, Wilson slotted ninth in total PPR points and 17th in points per game.

Usage & Role

Let’s split this up into two different categories: Wilson with Davante Adams and Wilson without Adams.

In six games without Adams, Wilson saw a huge 29.8% target share.

In 11 games alongside Adams, Wilson’s tally dropped to 22.8%.

Overall, the 24-year-old tied for fourth league-wide in total targets (153).

Wilson also continued to play both outside (69.1%) and in the slot (30.2%). Those numbers were consistent with past seasons.

Efficiency Metrics

Among 38 WRs with 100+ targets last year, Wilson ranked:

• 16th in yards after catch per reception
• 25th in catch rate
• 31st in yards per route run
• 34th in yards per catch

Each finish fell in line with his career averages, though. Wilson added a career-best 51.7% contested catch rate.

Interestingly, he recorded his lowest finish in ESPN’s Open Score (31st). Wilson sat fifth in 2023 and 13th in 2022.

Offensive Context

New York’s approach fueled Wilson’s volume. The Jets ranked fourth in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

Aaron Rodgers stayed healthy for 17 games, but he was far from the guy we saw in Green Bay. The 41-year-old finished outside the top-25 in completion rate, yards per attempt, and QBR.

He ranked right at league average in on-target throw rate, per Pro Football Reference.

Historical Production & Trends

Wilson has now hit 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards in all three NFL seasons.

TD production has proven underwhelming, though. He’s tallied 14 scores for a 5% TD rate – considerably below his expected TD mark of 22.5 (8.1%).

Injury History

Wilson played all 17 games for the third straight season. He wasn’t listed on the Jets’ final injury report at any point in 2024.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Davante Adams leaves behind 114 targets after signing with the Rams.

Still, New York opted against making an impact move at WR. They'll look for some combo of Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Tyler Johnson, Malachi Corley, and Round 4 pick Arian Smith to emerge.

TE Mason Taylor arrived as a Round 2 pick and projects as a Day 1 starter. But his presence doesn’t affect Wilson’s role.

It’s a major net positive for Wilson, who’s in position to push for 150 targets.

Supporting Cast

QB Justin Fields signed a two-year deal in March. He played with Wilson at Ohio State from 2019-2020.

Fields’ hot and cold passing tendencies add a layer of uncertainty here. Fields enters 2025 with a career yards per attempt of 7.0; a career completion rate of 61.1%.

RB Breece Hall returns for a contract year. Despite talk of a committee, we ultimately expect him to hold lead back status and keep defensive pressure off the passing game.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

We’re intrigued by the hiring of OC Tanner Engstrand. He spent 2020-2024 in Detroit, most recently as the pass game coordinator.

He oversaw breakout seasons from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. We’ll see how much Engstrand takes from Ben Johnson’s creative approach, but we don’t expect a pass-heavy lean with Fields under center.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Our historical WR aging curves show that Round 1 WRs typically peak at age 26.

On average, players can be expected to perform at 99% of their peak during their age-25 season, which Wilson will enter in the fall.