Jaylen Warren Fantasy Overview

2025 Offered More Work … and a New Challenge

Production Climbed But Volatility Remained

Warren posted career highs in total fantasy points and points per game in his first season without Najee Harris (who left for the Chargers). Warren checked in:

• 19th in PPR points per game
• 19th in half-PPR
• 18th in non-PPR

Warren finished 11 of his 16 games inside the position’s top 24 in PPR scoring but had trouble climbing beyond RB2 territory. He cracked the top 12 three times, two of those coming thanks to 2-TD rushing efforts.

Two of those games included 125-plus yards, but Warren topped 70 only once otherwise. For the season, he ranked 21st in rushing yards per game (59.9), 21st in yards per carry (4.5), and 23rd in carries per game (13.2).

Rushing Up, Receiving Down

Warren’s rushing usage spiked with Harris’ departure. Check out his carry shares by season:

• 2022 -- 16.6%
• 2023 -- 30.6%
• 2024 -- 25.2%
• 2025 -- 55.8%

That last mark ranked a solid 17th in the league and nearly doubled Kenneth Gainwell’s 28.0%.

Warren’s receiving suffered for Gainwell’s arrival, though. He drew the second-smallest target share of his career:

• 2022 -- 5.9%
• 2023 -- 14.0%
• 2024 -- 10.1%
• 2025 -- 8.3%

That slotted Warren just 28th at the position, while Gainwell’s 14.9% share ranked fifth.

Gainwell’s departure in free agency should mean some rebound in 2026, though we have new competitors to factor in that we’ll hit in the look-ahead section.

Warren Makes Case for Getting Touches

Warren remained effective when he did get the ball. His 88.9% catch rate marked a career high but also continued a four-year streak of catch rates above 80%. His 8.3 yards per catch edged the career high of 2024 (8.2). And that came despite the shortest average target depth of his career to date (minus-2.5 yards).

Warren countered that average starting point by going for 10.7 yards after catch per reception, 2.3 ahead of his previous best and tied for sixth among 52 RBs who drew at least 20 targets.

Warren also stayed efficient on the ground, ranking eighth among 51 qualifiers (90+ carries) in rush yards over expected per attempt. His 0.86 beat Gainwell’s 0.58 and gave him a top-8 finish in that stat for the second time in three seasons.

Among the same qualifying group, Warren ranked:

• 22nd in yards after contact per attempt
• Eighth in missed tackles forced
• T-20th in yards per rush
• Third in Pro Football Focus elusive rating

That last stat measures a runner’s performance independent of his blocking. Warren trailed only Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane in 2025. He also ranked 11th in 2024 and second in 2023. (Warren carried just 77 times in 2022 but ranked ninth among 59 qualifiers in elusive rating that season if we lower the threshold to 70 carries.)

Bottom line: Warren has proved to be good with the ball in his hands across his four seasons.

Injury Risk Here Might be Subtle

Last year marked the first time that Warren averaged more than 8.8 carries per game, so we’re still gauging his durability. But injuries haven’t been a significant problem to date.

He lost one contest to a knee injury early in 2025 but also returned the game after a Week 11 hamstring tweak. Warren missed two games with a knee issue in 2024 and dealt with a preseason hamstring injury that might have impacted his early-season role and performance.

There was another hamstring injury in 2022 that cost him one game. That will be an aspect to watch heading into the season, as recurrent hamstring issues can signal injury risk going forward.

2026 Presents a Different Challenge

Does This New Guy Signal Trouble for Warren?

Warren watched Gainwell leave for Tampa Bay in free agency, but then Pittsburgh imported Rico Dowdle on a two-year, $12.25 million contract.

When you factor in the slow start to Dowdle’s career -- just 96 total carries and 22 targets through his first four pro seasons -- and Warren’s impressive efficiency, he looks like the superior player.

But Dowdle has seen spikes in usage and production the past two years, and he brings history with Mike McCarthy, the Steelers’ new HC. McCarthy helmed the Cowboys for the entirety of Dowdle’s run there, starting with his 2020 entry as an undrafted free agent.

Dowdle barely saw the field before 2023, but then logged 89 carries and 17 catches that year, followed by his 2024 breakthrough: 235 carries and 39 catches.

Dallas elected not to re-sign Dowdle after that season, but the team also parted ways with McCarthy. It’s certainly worth noting that his return to coaching this offseason has coincided with Dowdle’s largest pro contract to date.

Split Could Be Trouble for Fantasy Managers

Losing Gainwell should help Warren’s receiving outlook, but Dowdle is a more similar back. That could be bad news for fantasy.

Let’s start with their usage over the past two years (obviously in different situations):

Dowdle took over the 2024 Cowboys backfield from a 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. But then he found an uninterested market and opened 2025 behind Chuba Hubbard before exploding while Hubbard was out with injury. And yet the Panthers also let him walk after the season.

(To be fair, they still had Hubbard under contract and are getting former second-round RB Jonathon Brooks back healthy.)

Warren, meanwhile, went from sharing with Harris to sharing with Gainwell. He’s heading into Year 1 of a two-year extension (worth $11.9 million) signed under the Mike Tomlin regime last September.

Dowdle and Warren look like similar players. They’ve both proved effective as runners and receivers with increased workloads in recent seasons. And neither has proved to be a true backfield leader.

Expect an annoying work split here for fantasy purposes rather than either guy emerging as the top back. Of course, an injury to either player would likely spike the other’s workload.

The RB Targets Are Coming Down

The Steelers will probably throw fewer passes to their RBs this season than last. Their 25.4% RB target share ranked second in the league, behind only San Francisco.

Pittsburgh also ranked second in that category in 2024, but even that 23.7% checked in lower than last season’s share. Warren’s first two seasons in the league found Pittsburgh 24th in RB target share (17.3%) and then sixth (23.6%).

Warren, and later Gainwell, probably helped drive that rise, but so did Pittsburgh’s deteriorating WR depth chart.

They acquired DK Metcalf last offseason to start the rebuild and then nabbed Michael Pittman Jr. and second-round rookie Germie Bernard this offseason.

Pittsburgh also sports a pair of TEs on starter-level contracts:

• Pat Freiermuth -- $12 million per year
• Darnell Washington -- $10.5 million

Washington got that extension this offseason, after McCarthy’s arrival. He has worked primarily as a blocker through three seasons but also increased his reception count each year.

All told, Pittsburgh RBs face more target competition in 2026 than they have in a while.

Warren Has the Receiving Edge

McCarthy has leaned pass across 18 years as a head coach, so overall target volume should be decent. But no McCarthy offense since 2013 has reached a 20% RB target share.

Add in the WR upgrades and last year’s unusually high RB target share, and Pittsburgh’s backfield probably sees a notable target decline.

Warren has seen target shares similar to Dowdle’s over the past two years, but he has proved to be the more efficient receiver:

(Success rate is a Pro Football Reference stat that measures how often a player gains the “needed” yardage in a given situation.)

Warren’s also coming off the best PFF pass-blocking grade that either guy has posted in the pros, though he trailed Dowdle in that category in 2024.

We still need to see how the split develops in their first season together, but Warren appears to hold the receiving edge.

The pair looks more closely matched across rushing categories:

Low-RB2 Is the Honest Upside

The obvious best case for Warren would find Dowdle getting hurt. Unless 2025 third-round pick Kaleb Johnson dramatically improves vs. last year, that scenario would vault Warren’s workload and give him upside into the position’s top 12.

Short of that, we should probably expect something similar to what Warren has given us the past two years.

Expect the rushing share to settle somewhere between the 25.2% of 2024 and last year’s 55.8%. The past two seasons have found 24 RBs reaching 47% carry shares. That’s likely close to the ceiling for whomever leads this backfield, as long as both stay healthy and neither falters.

Factor all that in, and Warren’s best hope looks like low-RB2 territory across formats as long as Dowdle’s around.