Justin Jefferson Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Jefferson delivered 103 catches for 1,533 yards and 10 TDs across 17 games, finishing second among WRs in both total PPR fantasy points (316.6) and points per game (18.6).

He posted seven top-10 weekly finishes, including three top-5 finishes. Still, he had five games outside the top-24 WRs.

Usage & Role

Jefferson maintained a 28.1% target share across the season, although that dipped to 25.9% over the final eight games (including playoffs).

He aligned wide 71.3% of the time and in the slot 27.3%, giving Minnesota some flexibility in how they deployed him.

He drew a 33.7% first-read target share, 15th among WRs with at least 25 targets, highlighting his centrality in the passing game.

Efficiency Metrics

Jefferson remained elite by nearly every advanced metric.

His 2.61 yards per route run ranked 4th among WRs (min. 50 targets), matching his 4th-place PFF receiving grade (90.3).

He continued to separate well (3.1-yard average separation according to Next Gen Stats) and posted a solid 11.3-yard average depth of target.

While his yards after catch per reception (4.5) ranked just 27th, he still beat expectations with +0.5 yards after catch above expected.

Offensive Context

The Vikings have consistently ranked top-6 in pass yards and top-5 in pass TDs in each of the past three seasons under Kevin O’Connell.

Even with a slight dip in 2024 pass rate (56.6%, 13th), Minnesota still ranked 2nd in expected passing TDs (36.5).

The passing rate should remain high enough to support Jefferson’s elite fantasy production.

Historical Production & Trends

Jefferson’s 2024 target share (28.1%) marked a slight increase over his 2023 (27.7%) and 2022 (27.4%) marks.

His fantasy points per team pass attempt has also climbed three straight years, from 0.54 to 0.57 to 0.58, highlighting improved per-play impact.

Injury History

Jefferson left the game in Week 2 with a right quad contusion, but he did not miss any additional weeks.

In 2023, Jefferson dealt with a hamstring injury that cost him seven games. He also suffered a chest bruise that caused him to leave early in Week 14.

No lingering issues appear headed into 2025, and he’s still firmly in his physical prime.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Jefferson remains the undisputed No. 1 WR in Minnesota.

Jordan Addison has been a quality complement, but not a threat to Jefferson’s role.

The Vikings added WR Tai Felton in Round 3 of the NFL Draft and return Jalen Nailor as potential slot options.

They also added Rondale Moore in free agency, but Jefferson is locked into the alpha role.

Supporting Cast

QB J.J. McCarthy missed all of 2024 with a knee injury, but he is locked in as the starting QB.

The Vikings boast a solid RB duo in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.

TE T.J. Hockenson is another year removed from his ACL tear and should be more effective.

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked 2nd in the NFL (70%) in 2024. They return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first-round pick Donovan Jackson.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Kevin O’Connell’s system has consistently leaned pass-heavy. In 2022 and 2023, the Vikings boasted a pass rate over 63% and a neutral pass rate of over 61% with Kirk Cousins at the helm

That dipped in 2024 with Sam Darnold taking over. The Vikings' pass rate dropped to 56.6% overall, with a neutral pass rate of 58.3%. They ranked 16th in the NFL in pass rate.

Despite the drop, the Vikings still ranked sixth in pass yards and fifth in pass TDs in 2024.

The offense will likely throw enough once again to support Jefferson as an elite WR option.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Jefferson has increased his per-route and per-target efficiency for three straight years, with no signs of slowing down.