Streaming Defense Week 4: Target the Newbie at QB for Bucs

For DST, the Matchup Is the Strategy

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No fantasy position depends on weekly matchups more than defense.

If you waited to draft fantasy defense/special teams, as our Redraft Strategy Playbook recommends, the best move is to stream the position and chase matchups.

Let’s break down how DST scoring works and identify the best Week 1 streaming targets.

Breaking Down the Basics of DST Scoring

Most fantasy football leagues score team defenses on the following categories:

• Points allowed
• Sacks
• Interceptions
• Fumble recoveries
• TDs

Because TDs are worth 6 points, including return scores, they create the biggest weekly swings. If your DST finds the end zone, you’ve almost certainly got a top-10 week.

The problem: Those scoring plays aren’t predictable.

Instead, points allowed give us the most predictable signal for DST fantasy scoring. In general, target defenses that are expected to allow the fewest points in a given week over trying to chase less-predictable big plays.

That often means simply targeting defenses facing the worst NFL offenses. 

Why Turnovers and Sacks Aren’t Reliable

TDs aren’t the only volatile category. INT leaders rarely repeat from year to year. Fumble recoveries are even less predictable. And even sack totals fluctuate.

We still want defenses with playmakers, especially stud pass rushers and DBs who get their hands on the ball.

But as far as DST scoring categories go, we want to chase points allowed the most.

The Real Edge: Exploiting Matchups

Don’t lock yourself into one defense all season. DST scoring is volatile, and so are weekly opponents.

Some defenses will be better than others at limiting points. But if one of them draws the Eagles or Chiefs, you’ll probably want a different DST that week.

Embrace the stream and come back here weekly to find the best options. 

Week 4 Defenses Worth Streaming

Packers (at Buccaneers)

Rostered: 32%

The Packers have not played well on defense so far this season. They rank 26th in defensive DVOA after giving up 35 points to the Falcons and 39 points to the Vikings (sandwiching a 17-point performance by the Jets). 

This certainly isn’t a D you’d target in normal circumstances (at least until Micah Parsons returns from the PUP list). But Baker Mayfield’s dislocated right thumb changes this matchup.

The Bucs’ offense had already been struggling, ranking 27th in yards and 23rd in offensive points per game (plus an INT return for a TD on defense). Now it’ll start undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels, who  threw 19 INTs over his last two years at Kansas. Daniels completed only 59.6% of his passes over that period, facing far weaker defenses than he’ll find in the NFL.

The Packers are 3.5-point favorites. If they jump to an early lead, that would only increase the pressure on Daniels and potentially drive up the passing volume. That could lead to sacks and turnovers, making them a worthwhile defense for this week alone.

Jets (at Bears)

Rostered: 2%

The Jets defense performed admirably for the first two weeks of the season, holding the Titans and Packers under 200 total yards apiece before running into the Lions.

Week 4 will bring the Bears, likely led by Tyson Bagent, who hasn’t started a game since 2023. (He likely would have started Week 3 if not for a concussion keeping Bagent out of practice all week.)

He went 5-of-9 for 54 yards filling in for Caleb Williams against the Vikings in Week 2 and didn’t look particularly impressive. In 2023, Bagent went 2-2 as the starter. Across his five games played, he completed 94 of 143 passes for 859 yards and 3 TDs with 6 INTs. Bagent also fumbled the ball three times. He was turnover prone when he did start, and that bodes well for the Jets Defensein this match-up. 

The Jets haven’t had an INT since January 5, 2025, but this may be their best chance to end that drought.

The Jets pass rush has also been impressive. They are tied for seventh in sacks with eight so far this season. The pass rush has been even better on film, especially rookie Edge David Bailey who has often commanded double teams from opposing offenses.

Cardinals (at Giants)

Rostered: 1%

The Cardinals haven’t played well on defense, giving up 31+ points against the Seahawks and 49ers the past two weeks. This one’s about the upside of facing Jameis Winston.

He took 3 sacks against the Titans last week, despite ranking just 28th in pressured rate, according to Pro Football Focus. But the real upside in facing Winston is the turnovers.

Since 2022, Winston has tossed 23 INTs vs. 21 TD passes. Last time he spent a full year starting, Winston famously led the NFL with 30 INTs for the 2019 Bucs. He leads all active QBs with 1.05 career INTs per game.

This year’s Giants have also struggled to score the past two weeks. They mustered only four FGs in last week’s 12-7 win, albeit in rainy, windy conditions. The team also failed to reach the end zone the previous week in L.A.

The Cardinals are currently favored by 1.5 points, despite being on the road. They certainly could hold the Giants to a low total with a few sacks in this game.