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5 Fantasy Football Breakouts Ready to Explode in 2025

These Players Look Ready to Make Noise in 2025

You’d think a second-round RB would make for an obvious breakout candidate … right?

I would. So obvious that I’d think such a player would have a better chance of being overvalued in drafts rather than undervalued.

But there’s a rookie the draft market’s practically begging you to take right now. And his upside stretches well beyond his modest ADP.

Want to know who he is, why he’s so attractive, and how to spot other potential 2025 fantasy football breakouts? Read on …

2025 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates

• Drake Maye
• Quinshon Judkins
• Jaylen Warren
• Ricky Pearsall
• Josh Downs

Now let’s break down each player’s breakout case.

What Makes Him a Breakout?

We’re looking for guys who are capable of delivering fantasy football production well above what they’ve done before. That requires two key factors:

And that brings us to this group.

It’s early in the 2025 NFL calendar, so situations are still evolving. But the five guys on this list have flashed us signals of their talent and appear on track for increased opportunity in 2025.

Let’s dive into the specifics …

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

Maye showed his breakout potential as a rookie by thriving in poor conditions.

He delivered top-8 fantasy finishes in his first two starts after sitting behind Jacoby Brissett through the first five weeks. For the season, Maye tallied five top-12 fantasy finishes among his 10 full outings. That made him one of just 12 QBs who finished top 12 in at least half of their starts.

He did so in an offense that ranked just 27th in EPA (expected points added) per play. The Patriots also had no player reach 100 targets or 700 receiving yards, highlighting the dearth of help the QB found available.

Fresh Faces in Foxborough Could Unlock Maye

The Patriots clearly know that just about everything around Maye sucked last year. They showed that by firing HC Jerod Mayo after just one season and overhauling the coaching staff. That included dumping OC Alex Van Pelt for another round of Josh McDaniels.

McDaniels heads into his 14th year as New England OC, split into three parts. Only one of those previous 13 seasons found the Patriots ranked lower than eighth in scoring. That was 2020, when New England rocked this ugly QB crew:

• 31-year-old Cam Newton
• Jarrett Stidham
• Brian Hoyer

Sure, nearly all of the other 12 years featured Tom Brady at QB. That probably helped a little. But McDaniels also piloted the 2008 Pats to No. 8 in scoring and No. 5 in total yards with Matt Cassel filling in for an injured Brady. More recently, McDaniels coached a Mac Jones-led 2021 offense to the league’s sixth-most points.

McDaniels left for Vegas in 2022, and Jones fell apart. The coach’s return should help the offense.

WR Corps Gets a Lift ... Will It Be Enough?

Most of New England’s big free-agent additions have come on defense. But they did sign WR Stefon Diggs to a three-year deal. Even coming off an October ACL tear at age 31, Diggs immediately becomes the team’s best wideout.

He probably won’t be nearly as explosive as younger versions of himself, but Diggs at least adds a reliable, experienced target. He ranked seventh in ESPN Open Score and 23rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among 118 qualifying WRs last year.

The draft added WR Kyle Williams in Round 3 and RB Treveyon Henderson -- a talented receiver -- in Round 2. Williams adds downfield ability that last year's group lacked. Henderson can turn short throws into big plays.

The additions turn the incumbents from iffy to potentially OK by potentially pushing them down the depth chart.

Demario Douglas has been a fine player through two seasons. TE is in solid shape, with Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. WR Kayshon Boutte flashed a bit in Year 2. Veteran WR Kendrick Bourne should be more useful than last year, now that he’s further removed from a 2023 ACL tear.

Can New England Keep Maye Upright?

New England also didn’t help its rookie QB much with blocking. Pro Football Reference credited the Pats with allowing the eighth-highest pressure rate in 2024. ESPN ranked them 31st in pass-block win rate.

Maye and Brissett both ranked among the top 13 QBs in pressure rate, according to Pro Football Focus.

Maye handled it fairly well, at least. He tied for 16th in pressure-to-sack rate vs. a No. 13 ranking in pressure rate. That indicates his mobility kept a good number of those pressures from becoming sacks.

Maye also tied for the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate when pressured (66.7%). Of course, even he jumped to 77.1% adjusted completion rate in clean pockets.

Shockingly, it appears to be easier to play QB when you don’t have large men charging at you with violent intentions.

Draft Should Help More Than Free Agency

New England signed RT Morgan Moses and C Garrett Bradbury in free agency.

Minnesota let Bradbury – a former first-round pick – walk after six seasons, none of which found him ranking higher than 30th among centers in PFF pass-blocking grade.

Moses has fared considerably better. Despite heading into his age-34 season, Moses recorded the two best pass-blocking grades of his career among the past three campaigns.

The Patriots' most important addition up front came when the drafted T Will Campbell from LSU fourth overall. He graded out better in pass blocking than run blocking in two of his three college seasons, according to PFF.

We'll see just how much New England's blocking improves. Fortunately, Maye’s running ability makes that less important to his fantasy value.

Maye’s Rushing is the Differentiator

Maye averaged 36.3 rushing yards per game across his 10 healthy starts last year. Among QBs, that trailed only:

• Lamar Jackson (53.8)
• Jayden Daniels (52.4)
• Anthony Richardson (45.4)
• Jalen Hurts (42.0)

That’s why we don’t need to worry too much about the O-line. It also sets a high fantasy floor for Maye, even if New England makes no more meaningful additions at WR.

Drafters Aren’t Getting It So Far

The final piece here is Maye’s ADP. He has consistently gone  just 15th among QBs in Underdog Fantasy ADP.

His scoring average across those 10 healthy starts last year would have ranked 13th.

So the early draft market is basically saying that it doesn’t expect Maye to get any better in Year 2.

Even if he doesn’t, Maye’s a fine value at that level. But the high rushing floor and untapped passing upside give him scoring potential well beyond that starting point.

Breakout potential.

Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns

This running back fulfills both “what makes him a breakout” categories above. But one other factor is solidifying his inclusion here: market price.

Drafters are plenty excited about a number of rookies. But they don’t appear excited enough about Judkins relative to his classmates.

We’ll dig further into that. But we’re starting with the most important factor …

This Guy’s Pretty Freakin’ Good

That’s a technical scouting term I like to apply when a player debuts in the SEC and acts like it’s the UFL.

As a true freshman in 2022, Judkins led the SEC in carries (274), rushing yards (1,567), and rushing and total TDs (16 and 17). He averaged 5.7 yards per carry, 8.8 yards per catch, and 130.7 total yards per game.

Among 168 FBS RBs who carried 100+ times, he ranked:

• 13th in PFF rushing grade
• 46th in yards after contact per attempt
  • narrowly behind Jahmyr Gibbs
  • ahead of Will Shipley, Blake Corum, and Kaleb Johnson
• 44th in elusive rating
• 23rd in breakaway percentage
• tied for seventh in missed tackles forced
• Second in rushes of 15+ yards
  • behind only speedster Keaton Mitchell

Judkins also jumped immediately ahead of Zach Evans, who would get drafted by the Rams the following April.

Elite Testing Confirms His Upside

Year 2 at Ole Miss found dips from the high efficiency of that first year, but Judkins once again led the SEC in TDs and earned his second straight first-team all-conference honor.

He transferred to Ohio State for his final season, which obviously cut into his production. That’ll happen when you join a backfield that already sports Treveyon Henderson. But Judkins rebounded his …

• yards per carry
• PFF grades
• and breakaway run rate

And he nearly doubled his yards per route while catching nearly as many passes (22 vs. 27) as Henderson.

Judkins then delivered an even better performance at the Scouting Combine than most expected from him. That included these results:

• 75th-percentile 40 time for the position
• 92nd-percentile speed score (at 221 pounds)
• 85th-percentile 10-yard split
• 89th-percentile vertical
• 98th-percentile broad jump

Those last three categories speak directly to his burst and explosiveness, at a position where it’s pretty important to start fast and have multiple methods for evading tackles.

PlayerProfiler gives Judkins a pretty lofty “best comparable player”: Nick Chubb.

The team that drafted the new guy probably sees some similarities as well.

Judkins Faces Loads of Opportunity

You could read the way the Browns have played RB this offseason in a few different ways. Here are the facts:

1. They drafted Judkins in Round 2.
2. They added Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson in Round 4.
3. They’re returning Jerome Ford for the final year of his rookie deal.
4. They let Chubb walk in free agency.

Perhaps they view Judkins as more of a Chubb replacement, focused on rushing more than receiving. And perhaps they plan to work in Ford and/or Sampson in pass-catching situations.

But … here’s what GM Andrew Berry said right after drafting Judkins 36th overall:

Comparing Judkins to Chubb and Hunt accounts for the duo that controlled all the backfield work before Chubb’s 2023 injury. And Judkins lands in a run-friendly situation.

HC Kevin Stefanski has spent six years as an NFL OC or head man. Five of those teams ranked ninth or higher in carries, including four top-4 finishes.

Of course, we don’t know that the Browns will let Judkins “really carry the load” this year. But that uncertainty is producing the final component …

The Market’s Making a Mistake with This Rookie

First-round RB Omarion Hampton is going 15th among RBs in best ball ADP despite sharing the Chargers backfield with Najee Harris.

Second-round rookie R.J. Harvey is going 17th. (Though we’ll see how much the J.K. Dobbins signing lowers that.)

Henderson – a second-round pick of the Patriots, two slots after Judkins went – sits 21st, despite joining a backfield that includes Rhamondre Stevenson making $9 million a year.

Judkins? He’s just RB24 in Underdog Fantasy ADP at the moment … barely ahead of third-round rookie Kaleb Johnson (who’s competing for touches with the next guy on this list).

All of these situations lack role and workload clarity. Yet Judkins pretty clearly stands out as the best value when you consider talent and opportunity. He’s the only one among those rookie RBs who sits higher in our RB rankings than he does in ADP.

And his upside lives well above even that ranking.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

We listed Warren as a breakout candidate early last year as well. It didn’t work out, of course. But should that factor into his 2025 outlook?

Let’s discuss …

Warren Already Showed You His Upside

Najee Harris led the 2023 Pittsburgh backfield in touches. But Warren was the better player.

He more than doubled Harris in receptions in his second NFL season and averaged 1.3 more yards per carry. He ranked eighth among all RBs in yards after contact per carry. He tied for fifth in total missed tackles forced, despite ranking just 36th in carries. And he finished third in rush yards over expected per attempt.

Warren finished that season 21st among RBs in total PPR points, two spots ahead of Harris.

He’s now going just 28th among RBs in best ball ADP, despite Harris being gone. Warren seems like an easy buy at that level.

But Are You Just Ignoring Last Season, Dummy?

Of course not.

Warren’s rushing regressed by basically any measure last year. Harris nearly doubled Warren in carries per game, and even Warren’s receptions per game fell by 1.1 vs. 2023.

The advanced metrics that made Warren look so good in 2023 did not favor his 2024 performance. What happened?

Health Woes Made Warren Tough to Trust in 2024

Warren’s 2024 issues began with summer hamstring trouble. He made it back for the start of the season, but that issue likely at least limited his early-season usage.

Warren handled just four, 11, and four touches over the first three weeks, leaving that third game early with a knee injury. He missed the next two games and saw limited playing time in his Week 6 return. And then a back injury surfaced for Week 11.

His advanced metrics got a lot better from Week 7 on, though ...

Over that span, among 53 RBs with 50+ carries, Warren ranked:

• 10th in YAC per attempt
• tied for 15th in missed tackles forced
• eighth in elusive rating

That remained down vs. 2023 but offered some encouragement.

Doesn’t Kaleb Johnson Kill Warren’s Breakout Potential?

Kill? No.
Alter? For sure.

Warren would undeniably carry more fantasy upside if the Steelers had waited beyond Round 3 to draft a RB. And it’s possible Johnson winds up leading this backfield the way Harris did last season.

But it’s also possible he doesn’t.

The primary questions facing Johnson heading into the draft were:

• His speed
• His receiving ability

Is Johnson Any Better Than Najee Harris?

He clocked the exact same 40 time – 4.57 seconds – that Harris did in pre-draft testing. That puts Johnson short of Harris’ speed score, thanks to a frame that’s 8 pounds lighter.

And Johnson certainly doesn’t match Harris’ receiving acumen coming out of college. The former Hawkeye totaled 29 receptions over three seasons. Harris racked up 27 and 43 catches in his two Alabama starting campaigns, averaged 9.8 yards per catch for his career, and put some WR-type highlights on tape.

If Warren could come in as an undrafted free agent, overtake that guy in receiving, and prove to be the team’s more efficient runner across their shared time, then he at least enters 2025 as the favorite to retain lead pass-catching duties – plus a decent share of the rushing.

We still have Warren projected for more PPR points than his rookie teammate.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Pearsall arrived as a first-round pick just a year ago with significant blockages to his fantasy viability.

A year later, the situation looks much different.

Deebo Samuel’s gone to Washington. Brandon Aiyuk’s still around but coming off an ACL tear that’s expected to delay his start to 2025. The incumbent target leader is Jauan Jennings, who delivered strong numbers and looked good doing it last year … but also didn’t exceed 35 catches until his age-27 season.

It’s also worth noting that Jennings didn’t lead his college team in receptions until his fifth year at Tennessee, before hitting the league as a seventh-round pick.

Is Jauan Jennings the Key to a Pearsall Breakout?

I didn’t come here to knock down Jennings, who has his own sleeper case for 2025. But his breakthrough 2024 doesn’t transform him into an established star.

It’s still fair to wonder if Jennings is closer to the player who posted one of the largest single-week WR performances in fantasy football history or the guy most of us paid no attention to before last season.

That he emerged as last season’s 49ers leader in targets (though not receptions, yards, or TDs, George Kittle) speaks to the opportunity still available to all San Francisco wideouts this season.

Of course, if the biggest factor working in Pearsall’s favor were vacated opportunity, we’d be building a pretty weak case here.

Pearsall’s Probably Pretty Good at Football

It was fair to have concerns about Pearsall’s prospect profile ahead of the 2024 draft. He …

• spent five years in college
• entered his first NFL season already 24 years old
• and didn’t hit his college breakout until age 21

But Pearsall increased his receiving yards per game every season and then joined the Niners as a first-round pick. And as I mentioned above, he joined a team that didn’t need WR help at the time. So it’s pretty clear that Kyle Shanahan liked him.

“(Pearsall) just plays the position real well, whether he was outside, inside, all three positions,” Shanahan said in his post-draft press conference in 2024. “He can separate down the field, he can separate underneath, extremely good hands. … There’s nothing he can’t do."

There’s nothing he can’t do.

That’s what you want your new coach to say – and think – about you … especially when that coach sports a long NFL history and one of the league’s most respected offensive minds.

Did You Miss Him Flashing Late in 2024?

We haven’t gotten much of a chance to see what Pearsall can do in the NFL just yet. But it’s tough to blame him for that.

The guy got shot on Aug. 31, on the brink of his rookie season. That he returned to the field at all borders on miraculous. That he played 76% of the offensive snaps in his first-ever NFL game in Week 7 speaks to how much Pearsall impressed coaches last summer (and after his return).

He wound up playing 67.5% of the snaps the rest of the way, with just one game south of 50%. It’s no shock that most of those weeks included limited production (17 catches through nine games). But Pearsall closed the year with a pair of strong outings:

He led all 49ers in receiving yards both weeks, and the second came with backup QB Joshua Dobbs in for Brock Purdy.

Did that give us a preview at what’s coming in 2025?

One Key Issue to Watch …

Pearsall sat out spring workouts with a hamstring injury. Shanahan called it a “tweak,” which indicates the issue is minor. But he also said Pearsall probably wouldn’t hit the field again until training camp.

If the wideout’s back to full strength and participation then, no worry. But Pearsall also dealt with a hamstring issue last offseason. So we’ll watch to make sure this isn’t a limiter.

In the meantime, an ADP outside the top 40 WRs makes Pearsall easy to stockpile at limited risk in early drafting.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Whoa, whoa, whoa … doesn’t he have a big-time QB issue?

Yep. But everybody knows it -- including the Colts. 

That factor’s driving Downs’ draft cost down to an absurd level, though. And he doesn’t need a big-time solution to deliver season-boosting value.

The Market is Wrong on Downs

Let’s start at the base: Downs finished 35th among WRs in total PPR points last season; 31st in points per game. That’s solidly higher than he’s currently being drafted.

Yes, he scored very differently depending on the QB. Downs’ 15.5 points per game when Joe Flacco served as the primary passer would have ranked 17th at the position for the season.

Downs averaged just 10.7 PPR points over seven shared games with Anthony Richardson, though. That would have tied for just 47th. We did get three games of 15+ points even among that seven-game sample. But 2024 Richardson was undeniably a problem.

And the Colts are addressing it.

Daniel Jones is Good News, Even if You Hate Him

Downs is being drafted at the level he scored with a poor-performing Richardson last year. So probably near his healthy floor.

But the Colts have been telling us all offseason that they won’t put up with the same Richardson they got last year. They said it first with words, and then they proved it with Daniel Jones’ contract.

Jones got $13.15 million guaranteed on a one-year deal, with a max value of $17 million. That sure ain’t backup money.

Richardson will need to improve his passing in 2025, or Jones will take over the job. That might not excite you, but the Colts clearly believe Jones would be a significant upgrade over Joe Flacco. If they didn’t, they could have simply re-signed Flacco for far less money.

But Didn’t Jones’ First Team Quit on Him?

Yes. The point here is not that Jones arrives as some grand savior. He’s the floor. And he has been friendly to shorter-range WRs.

That started in 2019, when Jones tossed eight of his 24 TD passes to Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard.

Shepard went on to lead the Giants in receptions per game each of the next three seasons. The following year found TE Darren Waller and new slot WR Wan’Dale Robinson easily leading a limited passing offense.

And through the 10 weeks that Jones spent with the Giants last year, Robinson ranked fifth among all WRs in targets – even while teammate Malik Nabers ranked second.

Jones has averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt for his career. If you’re a competent shorter-range pass catcher, you are his people.

Downs Fits Jones -- and Might be Better Than Pittman

If Jones hits the field for the Colts, he’s sure to like Downs.

First, Downs sported the shortest average depth of target among Colts non-RBs last season. He checked in more than a yard short of the nearest teammate. But that signals only the area of the field he tends to work, not a limited player.

Downs also led all Colts in:

• Expected PPR points per game
• Expected TDs
• Yards per route

(WR Anthony Gould technically beat Downs in yards per route, but he had just one catch all season.)

Downs’ 12.2 expected PPR points per game ranked 36th at the position and beat Michael Pittman Jr. by 0.7. That marked a big change from the year before, when Pittman ranked 11th among all WRs to Downs’ 54th.

Despite the poor QB play, Downs improved across advanced-metric categories.

If that QB play ascends with him this year, then we could be in for a real breakout.

So Where Should You Target These Fantasy Football Breakouts?

I've talked a lot about ADP, and that's important for knowing where you'll need to target a player.

If you check our fantasy football rankings, however, not all these guys are going to look like values. Does that mean you should just pass on them? Not necessarily.

Straight fantasy football rankings are interesting, but they don't come close to telling the full story.

That's why 3D projections drive everything we do around here. They deliver a richer picture of a player's value, and they custom fit to your specific format.

Check out the video below to learn more, and then see how they affect your rankings.