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        A vastly improved environment makes Trevor Lawrence a prime 2025 fantasy football sleeper

        Fantasy Football Sleepers 2025: Sneaky Good, Stupid Cheap

        Winning your league rarely comes down to your first few picks. It’s the overlooked breakouts and late-round fliers that turn a good roster into a juggernaut. Here are nine sleepers ready to tilt your draft in 2025.
        By Jared Smola | Updated on Sun, Jun 29 2025 12:07 AM UTC

        Fantasy leagues aren’t won in Round 1. They’re stolen in the later rounds, by the sharpest managers who know where to find hidden value.

        We’ve been grinding the film and crunching the numbers. Now we’re ready to unveil the top 2025 fantasy football sleepers.

        These aren’t just late-round dart throws. They’re legitimate difference-makers waiting to break out.

        Here are nine 2025 fantasy football sleepers worth betting on.

         

        Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets

        Headshot of Justin Fields

        We know what Fields is at this point: A flawed real-life QB ... but a valuable fantasy asset.

        His career 61.1% completion rate ranks 46th among 51 qualifying QBs. His 7.0 yards per pass attempt ranks 28th.

        But he’s been a strong fantasy producer thanks to his rushing prowess.

        Elite Rushing Fuels Fields’ Fantasy Value

        Fields’ 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons – behind only Lamar Jackson. Fields’ 6.0 yards per carry ranks fourth.

        That has helped him finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in 24 of 42 career games with a snap rate north of 90%. He has scored as a top-5 QB 12 times.

        Here’s how Fields' rates compare with some QBs who finished top-12 in total fantasy points last year:

        Top-12 finishes top-5 finishes
        Justin Fields (2021-2024) 57% 29%
        Kyler Murray (2024) 53% 29%
        Jared Goff (2024) 47% 29%
        Bo Nix (2024)41%18%
        Patrick Mahomes (2024)31%13%

        Jets Give Fields a Chance for More QB1 Production

        Fields is set for another crack at a starting job this season after signing with the Jets. He got a two-year, $40 million deal with a fully guaranteed salary in 2025. That makes him a safe bet to remain under center this season unless things really go south.

        New York’s offensive line is a work in progress after ranking 23rd in ESPN Pass Block Win Rate and 17th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade last year. But they spent the seventh overall pick of this spring's draft on Armand Membou, who should immediately upgrade the RT spot.

        The Jets also remain thin on pass catchers. But Garrett Wilson supplies Fields with a true No. 1 WR, and RB Breece Hall is one of only four RBs to average 30+ receiving yards per game in each of the last three seasons.

        Keep an eye on WR Arian Smith, too. The rookie had a buzzy spring and could give Fields a dangerous downfield weapon with his 4.3 speed.

        Can New Coaches Boost His Passing?

        The Jets made an upside hire in OC Tanner Engstrand. The 42-year-old worked under Ben Johnson in Detroit, helping the Lions to top-5 finishes in total yards and points in each of the last three years.

        Detroit’s scheme has been praised for simplifying reads and creating easy throws for QBs. That could benefit Fields, who has struggled with decision-making and accuracy.

        Bottom Line

        He'll never be a perfect real-life QB, but Fields' rushing ability keeps his floor high and his ceiling enticing in fantasy football. He has already delivered QB1 production in more than half of his career starts and has a clear path to a top-10 fantasy finish with the Jets. 

          

         


         

        Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

        Headshot of Trevor Lawrence

        The Forgotten QB Sleeper

        Fantasy players are buzzing about Caleb Williams heading into 2025, pushing his ADP well into the top 10 QBs. And for good reason. He landed big coaching and weapons upgrades this offseason — and offers sneaky rushing upside.

        You know who else got coaching and weapon upgrades — and offers sneaky rushing upside? Trevor Lawrence. Yet he’s flying under the radar and is still available deep into QB2 territory.

        Coen Boosted Mayfield. Now It’s Lawrence’s Turn.

        Jacksonville kicked off its offseason by hiring HC Liam Coen, who’s fresh off leading the Buccaneers to top-four finishes in both points and total yards. 

        That success was fueled by a career-best season from QB Baker Mayfield. He set new personal bests in: 

        • Passing yards (4,500)
        • Passing TDs (41)
        • Completion rate (71.4%)
        • Yards per attempt (7.9)
        • Passing TD rate (7.2%)

        Mayfield’s yards jumped by 11.3% and his TDs by 46.4% from 2023 under OC Dave Canales to 2024 under Coen. Most importantly, his fantasy output spiked by 31.8% — with only two QBs scoring more total fantasy points last season.

        Best WR Tandem in the League?

        Lawrence’s big offseason continued in April, when the Jaguars traded up to grab Travis Hunter with the No. 2 pick.

        A rare two-way prospect, Hunter starred at both WR and CB in college. Offensively, he racked up 96 catches, 1,258 yards, and 15 TDs last year at Colorado — winning with explosive athleticism, slick routes, and strong ball skills

        Hunter’s 9.34 SHARK Rookie Model Score is the highest for a WR since 2021 — edging out Ja’Marr Chase and comfortably ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers.

        We’ll see exactly how the Jaguars deploy Hunter’s dual skill set. But Coen said shortly after the draft that Hunter will "primarily play on offense” to start. Expect an immediate impact.

        Hunter joins Brian Thomas Jr. to give Lawrence what might be considered the league’s best WR tandem as soon as this season. Thomas is coming off a 1,282-yard debut season, becoming just the sixth rookie WR to top 2.3 yards per route over the last five seasons, joining Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Chris Olave, and Ladd McConkey.

        But is Lawrence Good Enough?

        Fair question. 

        Lawrence’s NFL career has been underwhelming so far — at least compared to the sky-high expectations after the Jaguars made him the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. His 63.3% completion rate and 6.8 yards per attempt sit slightly below league averages (64.7% and 7.1, respectively).

        Lawrence ranked seventh among QBs in total fantasy points and 13th in points per game during his second season in 2022. But he’s dropped to 16th and 27th in points per game the last two years.

        But like Lawrence, Mayfield was slogging through an underwhelming career before linking up with Coen.

        Here’s how Lawrence and Mayfield's numbers stack up pre-Coen:

        Lawrence Mayfield
        Completion Rate 63.3% 61.9%
        Yards Per Attempt 6.8 7.2
        TD Rate 3.4% 4.6%
        INT Rate2.3%2.6%
        Passer Rating85.088.1
        Passing Success Rate46.2%44.4%

        If Coen coaxed a top-three fantasy season out of Mayfield, there’s no reason he can’t vault Lawrence at least into the top 12.

        Don’t Sleep on the Rushing Upside

        The cherry on top of Lawrence’s sleeper appeal? His underrated rushing upside. He averaged over 17 rushing yards per game in each of his first three NFL seasons before dipping to 11.9 last year.

        Still, his career average of 18.1 rushing yards per game ranks 13th among 51 active QBs with 20+ career starts. 

        A healthy Lawrence should deliver 250-350 rushing yards in 2025 — a sneaky boost to his fantasy ceiling.

        Bottom Line

        2025 brings Lawrence's best setup yet. He gets a major boost from new HC Liam Coen, the same coach who just unlocked a career year from Baker Mayfield. Lawrence will also have what might be the NFL’s most explosive young WR duo in Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. Add in his sneaky rushing upside, and you’ve got a QB with clear top-12 potential being drafted well into QB2 range.

         


         

        J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings

        Headshot of J.J. McCarthy

        McCarthy’s sleeper appeal starts with the situation. He’ll be piloting a Kevin O’Connell-led offense that has consistently delivered top-6 passing production.

        Here’s where Minnesota has ranked in passing yards and TDs in O’Connell’s three seasons:

        Passing yards passing tds
        2022 6th 4th
        2023 5th 4th
        2024 6th 5th

        O’Connell Keeps Producing QB1s

        Not surprisingly, Vikings QBs have posted nice fantasy numbers under O’Connell. Kirk Cousins finished sixth in total fantasy points in 2022 and sixth in points per game in 2023. Then Sam Darnold – who’d been left for dead – ranked seventh among QBs last year.

        Only five teams have totaled more QB fantasy points than the Vikings over the last three seasons.

        With O’Connell – plus Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson – back for 2025, it’s an excellent spot for McCarthy’s fantasy prospects.

        McCarthy Brings Plus Accuracy and Underrated Athleticism

        There’s plenty to like about the player, too, despite the August knee injury that cost McCarthy his entire rookie campaign.

        He didn’t post huge raw numbers in a run-heavy Michigan offense, but McCarthy proved uber efficient. He completed 64.6% of his passes at 8.4 yards per attempt as a sophomore and then set new personal bests with a 72.3% completion rate and 9.0 yards per attempt in his 2023 junior campaign. 

        McCarthy was also a threat with his legs for the Wolverines, running for 742 yards and 8 TDs over his final two seasons. He clocked a sub-4.6-second 40 time at his Pro Day.

        The skill set got McCarthy selected 10th overall in last year’s draft. He had a strong offseason and was seemingly on track to win the Week 1 starting job before injuring his meniscus in August.

        Is the Knee Injury a Concern?

        McCarthy had surgery on his right knee last August and went under the knife again in November to address swelling. His recovery timeline remained unchanged, though, and McCarthy was back on the field by January.

        The Vikings let Darnold walk in free agency and said ‘no thanks’ to an interested Aaron Rodgers in March, so they don’t seem concerned about McCarthy’s health or readiness to lead this offense.

        Bottom Line

        McCarthy hasn’t taken an NFL snap yet, but he’s stepping into one of the league’s most QB-friendly systems under HC Kevin O’Connell. With an elite supporting cast and underrated rushing ability, McCarthy has a real shot to surprise as a QB1 option in 2025. He offers big upside at a QB2 price tag.

         


         

        Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

        Headshot of Tyjae Spears

        Let’s Give Him A Mulligan

        Spears was rarely healthy last year. He twisted an ankle in Week 2 and then pulled a hamstring in Week 6, costing him the next three games. Spears returned for just one full game before sustaining a concussion in Week 11 and missing the following game. Spears got concussed again in Week 17 and sat out the season finale.

        He officially finished 41st among RBs in PPR points per game. If we omit Weeks 2, 6, and 11 when he left early, he climbs to 32nd.

        That’s already a handful of spots higher than his current ADP. So we could stop right here and call Spears a nice value. But there’s even more untapped upside.

        Rookie Spears Showed Star Traits

        Spears played all 17 games as a rookie in 2023 and was one of the most efficient runners in the league. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

        • 14th in yards per carry
        • fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt
        • 11th in yards after contact per attempt

        Spears also posted a 52-385-1 receiving line, becoming one of just 33 RBs since the 1970 NFL merger to catch 50+ balls as a rookie.

        Can He Steal Work From Pollard?

        Spears played Robin to Tony Pollard’s Batman last year. Here’s how the work was split in 10 healthy games together:

        Pollard Spears
        Carries Per Game 13.3 5.8
        Targets Per Game 3.5 2.9

        Spears’ injuries likely played a part in that split, though. Tennessee’s coaching staff spent all last offseason calling Spears and Pollard “interchangeable.”

        HC Brian Callahan said this May that he's looking for a more even distribution of touches this season:

        “I think in a perfect world, it’s a healthier division of labor… I like, really, both of those players a lot. I think we can do a better job of managing that load so they both play a little more evenly.”

        Pollard tallied 1,317 total yards last year but battled an ankle injury down the stretch and posted mediocre efficiency metrics. He has always looked best in smaller doses, so expect Tennessee to lighten his lift by bumping Spears’ carries and touches.

        If Spears nabs just a few more carries per game on top of his solid receiving role, he’ll be a RB3 or flex asset in PPR leagues.

        Built-In Handcuff Value

        At worst, Spears is a premium insurance policy. When Pollard missed Week 17 last year, Spears ripped off 103 total yards on 23 touches — before exiting with a concussion in the third quarter.

        Rookie RB Kalel Mullings or fourth-year RB Julius Chestnut could nibble at carries if Pollard goes down this year.

        But Spears is the clear next man up. And His pass-catching chops guarantee him the high-value snaps that matter most in fantasy.

        Bottom Line

        Throw out last year’s bumps and bruises and Spears looks like a sneaky dual-threat: a backfield complement with standalone flex appeal and starter upside if Tony Pollard goes down. Spears’ ADP says RB4, but his ceiling says much more.

         

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        3D Projections help you pinpoint the players with the most fantasy upside.

               


               

        Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills

        Headshot of Ray Davis

        A Confirmed High-End Handcuff

        Davis has already flashed his handcuff value. With RB James Cook sidelined for Week 6 last season, Davis:

        • played 58% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps
        • racked up 20 carries for 97 yards
        • hauled in all three of his targets for 55 more yards

        Davis finished 12th among RBs in PPR points that week, despite not finding the end zone. And he did it against a Jets defense that ranked 11th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. 

        Davis posted the 12th-best Pro Football Focus rushing grade that week, right behind Chase Brown and just ahead of Joe Mixon, Chuba Hubbard, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

        The depth chart hasn’t changed heading into 2025. Buffalo brings back Cook, Davis, and Ty Johnson. If Cook misses more time, Davis steps right back into a big workload.

        More Than A Handcuff?

        Davis didn’t need a full workload to show off his tackle-breaking chops last year. He reached double-digit carries in just two games alongside Cook: An 11-63-1 rushing line in a Week 13 blowout win over the 49ers, and a 15-64-0 line in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Patriots.

        But Davis shed tacklers like a crypto trader evades the SEC. His 0.26 missed tackles forced per carry ranked ninth among 47 RBs with 90+ attempts. (Cook ranked 31st at 0.18 per attempt.)

        At 5’8, 211 pounds, Davis brings a different build and style than Cook’s leaner frame. Cook is plenty explosive, but he has topped 15 carries in only 10 of his 49 career games — including just four times in 16 outings last season.

        There’s room for Davis to see 8-10 carries per game, especially in a Bills offense that’s leaned run under OC Joe Brady.

        Last year’s Bills produced the fourth-most RB PPR points, fueled by the second-most RB rushing scores (20). Cook was good enough near the goal line, scoring on six of 13 carries inside the five-yard line. But we could see the Bills give more of those carries to the bigger Davis in 2025.

        Cook’s Contract Adds Upside

        Cook is entering the final year of his rookie deal and wants a long-term extension. The Bills don’t seem very interested in giving him one.

        Cook skipped OTAs but showed up for minicamp and says he’ll be at training camp. It doesn’t seem like the contract squabble will impact his status for the start of the season — but these things can change quickly. And Cook might be less willing to play through minor bumps and bruises this year without a new deal.

        The situation adds some upside to Davis’ profile.

        Bottom Line

        Davis is one of the cleanest, highest-upside handcuffs in fantasy football. And he’s got a sneaky path to standalone value even if James Cook stays healthy all year. The best part? Davis’ ADP sits well outside the top 40 RBs, making him an excellent low-risk, high-reward target in the double-digit rounds.

         


               

        Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills

        Headshot of Keon Coleman

        Coleman didn’t do enough to help fantasy teams as a rookie last year. He finished 67th among WRs in PPR points per game and turned in just two top-24 scoring weeks.

        But Coleman did three things in his debut season that make him an intriguing 2025 fantasy football sleeper.

        He Worked Downfield

        Coleman averaged a huge 19.2 yards per catch last year. His 15.5-yard average target depth ranked fifth-highest among 84 qualifying WRs. He drew 34% of his targets 20+ yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate among those 84 WRs.

        Coleman caught only six of those 19 deep targets, so there’s work to do on his game and connection with QB Josh Allen. But similar usage this season would boost his fantasy ceiling.

        He Added Value After the Catch

        Coleman averaged 7.7 yards after the catch per reception as a rookie. That ranked fifth among 84 qualifying WRs – and is even more impressive when you factor in his big average target depth.

        (It gets harder to gain yards after the catch the further you work downfield.)

        In fact, Coleman led all players in NFL Next Gen Stats’ yards after catch per reception over expected, which factors in target depth, as well the location of blockers and defensive coverage.

        He Was a Red-Zone Weapon

        Coleman’s four TDs last year don’t jump off the page. But they came on just 29 total catches, giving him a strong 13.8% TD rate. 

        More exciting as we look ahead to 2025 is that Coleman registered 5.2 expected receiving TDs. His 25 red-zone targets and 8 end-zone targets led the Bills and ranked top-40 among all WRs league wide. (Despite Coleman missing four games.)

        With a 6’3, 213-pound frame and ball skills like that, expect Coleman to remain a preferred red-zone target for the Bills.

        Did Injury Delay The Breakout?

        Coleman might have already broken out if not for a Week 9 wrist injury that cost him the following four games last year.

        In the two games before that injury, Coleman posted 4-125-0 and 5-70-1 lines. He drew seven targets in both outings, registering a 20.9% target share.

        Coleman averaged just 1.8 catches and 34.8 yards in the final four games of the season after returning from that injury.

        Can Coleman Earn Must-Start Status in Fantasy?

        Coleman checks a lot of boxes:

        • Size
        • Downfield chops
        • After-catch skills
        • A big red-zone role

        He should still be ascending as he enters Year 2. And he could find more targets available in 2025.

        The Bills let WR Amari Cooper walk in free agency, replacing him with former Chargers WR Josh Palmer. Cooper underwhelmed in Buffalo but has historically been a strong target earner, with eight seasons of 100+ targets. Palmer, meanwhile, has hit triple digits in just one of four seasons and averaged just 4.3 targets per game last year. 

        It’s certainly possible that Palmer proves to be a downgrade from Cooper, opening up more target opportunity for Coleman in an offense that has ranked top-6 in points for five straight seasons.

        Considering his upside in terms of yards per catch and TD rate, Coleman doesn’t necessarily need huge volume to deliver for fantasy teams.

        Bottom Line

        Coleman flashed big-play ability, red-zone value, and after-catch dominance as a rookie. Now he’s primed for a larger role in a top offense — and a potential breakout season. The best part? You can land him in the double-digit rounds of your draft.

           

        TIP

        Want REAL-TIME sleeper targets during your draft? Get the most powerful live-draft sync in fantasy football.

                


         

        Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints

        Headshot of Rashid Shaheed

        We highlighted Shaheed in last year’s sleeper article. And he delivered — if only for six games.

        Shaheed’s 2024 season ended after Week 6 due to a meniscus injury. At that point, he was sitting 23rd among WRs in PPR points and had notched four top-18 weekly finishes.

        Big Plays, Surprisingly Big Volume

        Shaheed again flashed the big-play pop we saw in his first two seasons, averaging 17.5 yards per catch on an 18.1-yard average target depth. Both marks ranked top five among 104 WRs with 40+ targets. Shaheed’s 2.04 yards per route ranked 29th.

        But it was the surprising volume that really fueled his strong fantasy production. Shaheed averaged 6.8 targets on a 23.3% target share in his six games. Those marks were team highs — and the target share ranked 26th among all WRs league-wide.

        From MVS to Cooks: Yawn

        The Saints didn’t do much at WR this offseason, swapping out Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a past-his-prime Brandin Cooks. The former perennial 1,000-yard receiver has finished under 700 yards in three straight seasons, including a career-low 259 yards in 10 games last year.

        Shaheed remains a clear top-two WR alongside Chris Olave heading into 2025.

        QB Questions Loom

        QB play is Shaheed’s biggest concern at this point of the offseason. 

        Derek Carr' surprising retirement leaves rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans' likely starter. The 25-year-old bounced around to three different schools over his seven-year college career, failing to top 223 passing yards per game until this past season. Shough has some fans in the tape-grinding community but brings downside risk to Shaheed’s fantasy value.

        New Coach Boosts Upside

        The QB issue is at least partly offset by the hire of HC Kellen Moore. If nothing else, his arrival should mean a boost in play volume for the Saints.

        Here’s how Moore’s six NFL offenses have fared in plays per game:

        Year team plays per game rank
        2019 DAL 66.8 6th
        2020 DAL 69.6 2nd
        2021 DAL 67.8 2nd
        2022DAL65.58th
        2023LAC65.18th
        2024PHI65.53rd

        The 2024 Saints, by comparison, ranked just 22nd with 60.7 plays per game. There’s potential for 4+ additional plays per game this season — meaning more opportunities for Shaheed to score fantasy points.

        Bottom Line

        Shaheed scored as a WR2 in his injury-shortened 2024, flashing big-play chops and garnering surprisingly strong volume. He’s set up to produce again this season, with little competition for targets and an up-tempo new play-caller in Kellen Moore. The QB situation adds risk, but the upside makes Shaheed a savvy late-round swing in 2025 fantasy drafts.

        TIP

        Want four more high-upside WR targets? Check out our 2025 WR Sleepers.

         


            

        David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

        Headshot of David Njoku

        A Proven Top-10 Fantasy TE

        Ankle, knee, and hamstring injuries cost Njoku six games and most of two others last year. But he was awesome in the other nine, averaging:

        • 9.9 targets (24.1% share)
        • 6.6 catches
        • 49.7 yards
        • 0.6 TDs

        Njoku ranked sixth among TEs in PPR points per game over that stretch and delivered six top-7 weekly finishes.

        The usage and production were similar for Njoku in 2023. He averaged 7.7 targets per game on a 20.6% share that year, ranking TE6 in PPR points per game.

        Njoku finished ninth at the position in PPR points per game in 2022.

        Why So Cheap?

        That’s two straight seasons of top-6 fantasy production; three straight as a top-9 TE. Yet Njoku is sitting outside the top 10 TEs in ADP on most sites.

        Why? I’m guessing folks are mostly scared off by Cleveland’s QB situation. It’s not great: Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.

        But Cleveland’s QB play has been shaky for years. The Browns finished 22nd in passing yards and 28th in TDs last year and haven’t cracked the top half of the league in either stat in three seasons.

        Joe Flacco = Upside?!

        They got some of their best QB play over that stretch from Flacco in 2023. He averaged 321 yards and 2.3 TDs across six appearances. Njoku was a monster in those games, averaging:

        • 6.2 catches
        • 80.5 yards
        • 0.67 TDs

        That’s 18.2 PPR points per game — a mark that would have comfortably led all TEs the past two seasons.

        Flacco is the favorite to open 2025 as the starter. If he’s anything close to the late-2023 version, Njoku has a legit shot to beat his ADP by multiple rounds. And if Flacco falters? Njoku has proven he doesn’t need elite QB play to produce top-10 numbers.

        Target Runway Still Clear

        Njoku has finished among the Browns' top two in targets per game in three straight seasons. He’s a good bet to make it four in a row this year.

        The target competition:

        • Jerry Jeudy is the headliner, fresh off career highs in targets (145), catches (90), and yards (1,229). But a chunk of that production came while Njoku was sidelined. In Njoku’s nine healthy games, he out-targeted Jeudy 89 to 67.
        • Cedric Tillman flashed over a four-game stretch as a starter last season but remains largely a question mark. 
        • Diontae Johnson is a total wild card. He’s been a target magnet historically, but injuries and an odd 2024 left him bouncing teams and settling for a cheap, one-year, prove-it deal in Cleveland. He might pop — or vanish.
        • Rookie TE Harold Fannin is more gadgety slot threat than real challenger. The Athletic’s Zac Jackson wrote in mid-June that Fannin is “considered more of a long-term project than an immediate contributor.”

        Bottom Line

        Njoku has quietly delivered three straight top-9 fantasy finishes despite shaky QB play in Cleveland. QB remains a question mark, but Joe Flacco brings potential stability. And Njoku is still a strong target bet amid an iffy WR corps. Njoku is a proven fantasy starter that you can draft outside the top 10 TEs.

         


          

        Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys

        Headshot of Jake Ferguson

        Ferguson might be the least exciting player on this list. He’s not exactly a dynamic TE, with 4.8 speed and a career 9.6 yards per catch. But ...

        Ferguson Wins with Volume

        Ferguson is just a couple of years removed from a 102-target season. He parlayed that action into a 71-761-5 line, finishing ninth among TEs in PPR points.

        Ferguson was on a 104-target pace last year. But injuries to him and his QB curtailed his fantasy production.

        Injuries Derailed Ferguson’s 2024

        Ferguson was knocked out of Week 1 with a left knee injury and missed Week 2. Then he sustained a concussion early in Week 11 that cost him the next two games.

        In between those two injuries, the Cowboys lost QB Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstrsing injury in Week 9.

        Ferguson was on TE1 Pace with Prescott

        So Ferguson played just seven games with Prescott last year. He was busy and productive over that stretch, averaging:

        • 7.4 targets
        • 5.4 catches
        • 48 yards

        That’s a full-season pace of 126 targets, 92 catches, and 811 yards. All three marks would have ranked top 6 among TEs.

        What Does George Pickens' Arrival Mean?

        Ferguson will face tougher target competition this season after Dallas' early-May trade for WR George Pickens. He joins CeeDee Lamb to give the Cowboys a strong WR duo. Those guys will be the team's top two targets.

        But Ferguson should be the clear No. 3 in the pecking order. And he'll benefit from what figures to be a pass-leaning offense. The Cowboys finished top eight in pass attempts each of the last two seasons under then-OC, now-HC Brian Schottenheimer. Dallas chucked it on a whopping 66.7% of their plays in Prescott’s eight games this past year. That pass rate would have easily led the league.

        Our current 2025 projections have the Cowboys for the league's second-most pass attempts (627). That gives Ferguson a path to 100+ targets, which would make him a strong bet for top-10 fantasy production. Of the 26 TEs who have hit 100+ targets over the last five seasons … all but one finished top nine in PPR points.

        Ferguson’s ADP sits in Round 13 as the 17th TE off the board.

        Bottom Line

        Ferguson is the kind of unexciting player who goes undervalued in fantasy drafts. He isn’t flashy, but he has a clear path to 100+ targets as a top option in a pass-leaning Cowboys offense. Grab Ferguson late and bank on TE1 production at a TE2 price.

         


                       

        Not All Sleepers Are Created Equal — Here’s How to Find Yours

        Grabbing the right sleepers can be the difference between a championship run and another middle-of-the-pack finish. The players we just covered are a great starting point.

        But not all sleepers are created equal. A player who’s a steal in one league might be a reach in another, depending on your scoring system, lineup requirements, and league trends.

        You could go the old-school route: endless spreadsheets, hours of research, and a headache before Week 1 even starts.

        Or you could let our ADP Market Index tool do the work for you, identifying undervalued players tailored to your specific league settings.

        Use ADP Market Index to find your fantasy football sleepers.

        Here’s what you get with the ADP Market Index tool:

        Customized Analysis: Get player rankings and ADP insights that mirror your league's unique format.  Whether you're in a PPR league, seeking a trio of starting WRs, or navigating the complexities of Superflex -- both the rankings and ADP correlate to your league.

        Effortless Insight: Instantly compare each player's value against the market average (ADP). Again, this is all calibrated to your fantasy platform and scoring guidelines. That means you’ll see the gaps between a player’s actual value and his ADP.

        Spot the Sleepers: Next, look for green index numbers signaling undervalued players. Discovering a player underrated by 20, 30, or even 40+ spots means you've found a sleeper who could propel your championship run. 

        Dive into the ADP Market Index

        I know you're bombarded with fantasy content asking for your attention. But if you’re truly trying to gain an advantage by targeting sleepers in your upcoming draft – you really should spend a few more minutes checking out our ADP Market Index tool.

        It could be the difference between a championship and just another mediocre season! 

          

        Jared Smola Author Image
        Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
        Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks sixth among 158 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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        2. Opponent and Team Needs
        3. Positional scarcity & available players
        4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

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