Superflex Draft Guide

 

How to Attack Your Superflex Draft

QBs will obviously go earlier in your superflex draft, as they should. The whole point of the format is to add value to that position.

But the key to winning your superflex league – and especially your superflex draft – might actually lie in not over-valuing the position.

That’s why Tip 1 in our Superflex Draft Strategy reads: Don’t Overvalue QBs in Superflex.

We’ll get more into that as we run through this article. And you can find even more in that linked article above.

The Draft Setup

We’re running through a full superflex draft from every position here to determine top strategies and even specific player targets.

It’s vital to understand the specifics of the format, though. They’ll shape the way you draft and impact the recommendations your Draft War Room delivers.

Here’s the lineup I’ve used for this exercise:

• 1 QB
• 2 RBs
• 3 WRs
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 Superflex (QB/RB/WR/TE)
• 1 K
• 1 DST
• 7 bench spots

Perhaps that goes deeper than your league’s starting lineup. But in my experience, superflex leagues tend to lean deeper.

That’s kinda the point of the position, right? To add not only value to QBs but also a strategy challenge for fantasy managers.

These lineup settings produce an 18-round draft, and I’m using half-PPR scoring to achieve more cross-format utility.

Your Draft War Room, of course, will cater the recommendations and strategy to the specifics of your format.

 

Superflex Guide: Pick 1 or 2

Round 1

Top Target: Jalen Hurts

The first thing you’ll notice when you enter your Draft War Room is that QBs easily lead the way – with breaks in 3D value among the top options.

The gap between Hurts and Josh Allen is likely smaller than the step down from Allen to Patrick Mahomes – though that will differ if your league scores more for passing yards.

Hurts and Allen separate from Mahomes via their rushing value. We give Hurts top billing this year because Allen lost his top two WRs while Hurts got upgrades in surrounding talent and OC (Kellen Moore).

Next Best: Josh Allen

That said, it wouldn’t be “wrong” to lean Allen. He has certainly proved himself with three straight No. 1 rankings in fantasy points per game.

Mahomes has showed us he carries upside to the top of the position, but the rushing production remains a significant differentiator at draft time (unless you get 6 points per passing TD).

Other options

Patrick Mahomes

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor & Drake London

Feeling like you need to get your second QB early is where many drafters go wrong in superflex. That’s why the first tip in our superflex draft strategy is “Don’t Overvalue QBs.”

That doesn’t mean you can’t take a second QB at this turn if a guy you covet won’t be making it back to you in Round 4. But there’s likely more value in targeting the other positions.

Taylor checks in as our No. 4 RB for the format and London our No. 9 WR. So the value is evident. If a higher ranked player at either position gets to you, then you’re in even better shape.

Next Best: Kyren Williams & Jaylen Waddle

And even if your league doesn’t over-indulge on QBs early, claiming Taylor and London ahead of your turn, your board’s still likely to favor the next RB and WR targets over QB here.

The announcement from HC Sean McVay that Williams will return punts is rare for a team's lead back. But McVay did have Cooper Kupp return punts in 2020, a year that also saw Kupp lead the team in receptions.

Other options

Marvin Harrison Jr., Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Target: Deebo Samuel & Nico Collins

If both WRs make it to this turn, then you might see Collins ahead of Samuel on your board. That’s likely because of Samuel carrying a slightly later ADP – indicating he has a better chance of making it to your next turn.

Samuel, though, edges Collins in floor, consensus, baseline, and ceiling projection. So I’m taking the 49er over the Texan.

Next Best: Cooper Kupp & Malik Nabers

Even if neither Samuel nor Collins gets to you, this is a nice turn to pair WRs if any among this group reaches you. Kupp and Nabers have both seen late-summer climbs in ADP, which might put them out of range – especially if you play with full PPR scoring.

Other options

Kenneth Walker III, Joe Mixon, D.J. Moore, DeVonta Smith, Jayden Daniels

This will likely be your last chance to get Daniels, if he even makes it this far. Feel free to reach over the other guys in your recommendations for our Breakout Player, if you’d like to leave this turn with two weekly starters at QB.

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Target: Aaron Rodgers & Tee Higgins

If Higgins makes it around the turn here, he’ll likely sit ahead of the RB recommendations – even if you get here with just one RB and three WRs. That signals his upside vs. this draft position. If he’s gone, you’re likely to see a RB rather than the next WR.

Your other spot should find a QB2 recommended. And these two turns show why you can afford to wait after opening your draft with a stud QB.

We obviously haven’t seen a full season of Rodgers with the Jets yet. But we saw him finish QB13 in his final Packers campaign (2022) and QB6 the year before.

Beyond Rodgers, waiting on that second QB makes sense in superflex because QB scoring tends to flatten as you move down the final rankings.

Next Best: Deshaun Watson & James Conner

No one’s leaving a draft excited about getting Watson. But three of his five healthy games last year ended with top-10 fantasy finishes among QBs.

Getting Conner should make you happy. I highlighted him as one of the best fantasy football picks of the year – like he was last year.

Other options

Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Will Levis, David Montgomery, Tank Dell

Our imported ADP for this format says Levis, Smith, and other QBs behind them are likely to make it back to your Round 8 turn. If you know that’s not likely to prove true in your league, feel free to grab a third QB here.

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Target: Geno Smith & Raheem Mostert

Getting your QB3 at this turn lets you play the matchups with that superflex starter, to go with the every-week starter that began your draft.

Smith has been a favorite sleeper of mine all year. He ranked 10th among QBs in fantasy points per game just two years ago and should be in the most pass-friendly scheme of his career this season.

Mostert’s upside is obvious after he racked up 21 TDs last season. We all expect him to regress from that this year, but the market has over-corrected for that regression.

This turn is where Upside Mode kicks in, increasing the weight of a player’s ceiling projection and ceiling likelihood (high-medium-low) to highlight potential difference makers over the second half of your draft.

Next Best: Will Levis & DeAndre Hopkins

Levis presents a wide range of potential outcomes. But his offense got a pass-favoring renovation this offseason, including:

• New HC Brian Callahan (former Bengals OC)
• Free-agent WR Calvin Ridley
• Free-agent RB Tony Pollard
• Free-agent WR Tyler Boyd

And, of course, the other guy with him at this spot is a career-long target hog who’s a strong value at ADP. Hopkins will be a fine pick at this level even if his knee isn’t ready for Week 1.

Other options

Diontae Johnson, Bryce Young, Tony Pollard, Christian Watson, Jonathon Brooks, Javonte Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Target: Courtland Sutton & Brian Robinson Jr.

Now that you’ve got your three QBs, your primary focus should be upside RBs and WRs the rest of the way – with one meaningful diversion at the next turn.

Sutton appears in line to remain the No. 1 WR in Denver, with Marvin Mims and others showing no signs of challenging his position this summer.

Robinson might not jump out as an “upside” target, but OC Kliff Kingsbury recently called him “a No. 1 back in this league.”

That alone gives him plenty of upside from this fantasy-reserve starting position.

Next Best: Tyler Lockett & Chase Brown

Lockett sliding down draft boards makes sense heading into his age-32 season. But taking a shot on the ever-productive vet at this level also makes plenty of sense.

Brown appears headed for a backfield split with Zack Moss. That should give both some standalone value in a backfield that’s been productive whenever QB Joe Burrow has been healthy. And there’s obvious upside in case of a Moss injury.

Other options

Jameson Williams, Tyjae Spears, Brian Thomas Jr., Mike Williams

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Target: Mike Williams & Taysom Hill (or Noah Fant)

Williams has ranked among the top 24 WRs in half-PPR points per game each of the past three seasons.

He obviously adds the challenge of coming off an ACL tear. But there’s little downside risk in drafting him this late.

Hill makes for an intriguing pick here if he qualifies at TE in your league, and especially if you don’t play with full-PPR scoring.

He gets less interesting if your host site designates him a QB, because Hill would need to score much higher and more consistently than he historically has to be startable there.

If you do get a full point per reception, then feel free to reach over Hill for Noah Fant or Tyler Conklin here.

Next Best: Jerry Jeudy & Noah Fant

Fant easily leads your 3D values in Round 13 if you don’t have a TE yet, despite an ADP that likely puts him in Round 16.

Getting your guy is more important than over-trusting ADP at this stage in your draft. And Fant’s a good play if you’ve pushed TE off this long – which makes for a fine strategy in a format that downplays the value of a one-starter position.

Other options

Gabe Davis, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks, Dontayvion Wicks, Zach Charbonnet, Ty Chandler

Rounds 14 & 15

Top Target: Ty Chandler & Sam Darnold

The specific players available always vary the recommendations (duh). But here it might even do so by position.

If Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks gets here, for example, he’ll probably sit ahead of Darnold in your board rankings. And if Darnold’s gone, you’re not likely to see another QB take his place.

Next Best: Antonio Gibson & Ja’Lynn Polk

It’s OK if you don’t want to put two Patriots on the same team, but there’s upside to each of these guys in the late rounds.

Gibson arrives with at least some pass-catching potential in a third-down type role. And he’s a clear handcuff to Rhamondre Stevenson.

Polk has impressed in camp workouts and could climb a weak WR depth chart as a rookie.

Other options

Darnell Mooney, Jermaine Burton, Tank Bigsby, Josh Palmer, Andrei Iosivas, Jaleel McLaughlin

Rounds 16-18

Grab your kicker, DST, and one more upside play among these final three picks.

We’ve added Trust Factor to the Draft War Room this year, which will help you select the best defense option by boosting those with good initial matchups and penalizing defenses that open with poor matchups.

The war room will also guide you at kicker, of course, where you’re optimally getting a reliable performer in a good offense.

Superflex Guide: Pick 3 or 4

Round 1

Top Target: Jalen Hurts/Patrick Mahomes

We have Hurts and Josh Allen decently ahead of Mahomes. ADP says you might be able to get our No. 1 QB (Hurts) at Pick 3. That’d be sweet.

Of course, Mahomes would also be a fine consolation prize. He should be in for a scoring rebound (by his standards) now that the Chiefs have added some WRs capable of working downfield (Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy).

Next Best: Lamar Jackson

Jackson has pretty consistently gone fourth among QBs across drafts this year. Starting your superflex build with any of these top 4 QBs should feel pretty good.

Round 2

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor

Even if your league goes nuts on QB and takes 10 of them in Round 1, don’t get caught up in the feeling that you need to get your second at this turn.

The value will almost certainly be better at RB or WR, with plenty of QBs available at future turns.

Although it’s comfy to get a pair of QBs you just set in your lineup every week, you’ll get more production potential by pushing off that QB2 selection and grabbing a stud here at a different position.

Next Best: Saquon Barkley

Taylor and Barkley both head into workhorse roles in offenses that will run the ball plenty and present significant scoring potential.

Other options

Kyren Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London

Round 3

Top Target: Drake London

This is another good turn for a WR or RB, and the specific recommendation will likely depend on:

• the particular players who remain available
• the specifics of your league settings

Full PPR? Expect the system to favor WR a bit more. Only start two WRs? Then RBs gain value.

Next Best: Kyren Williams

Williams might not face quite as large a workload as he did last year – and probably shouldn’t after leading all RBs in opportunity share. But don’t expect him to cede the backfield lead.

He ranked seventh among all RBs in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt.

Should we worry about HC Sean McVay's stated plan to have Williams return punts? Probably not. It's uncommon -- even for McVay -- but he did have Cooper Kupp returning punts in 2020.

That was Kupp's fourth season and the middle of a three-year run that saw him lead the team in receptions each year.

Other options

Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Derrick Henry

Round 4

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle

Let’s keep building at WR and/or RB (depending on what you picked to this point and your format).

Waddle finished among the top 13 WRs just two years ago, despite sharing the field with a healthy Tyreek Hill.

Next Best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco appears headed for a workhorse-type role in an offense that perennially ranks among the league’s best. 

As long as he stays healthy, he should be an easy weekly starter with intriguing upside.

Other options

Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Cooper Kupp, Jayden Daniels

If you want to make sure our Breakout Player – Jayden Daniels – is yours, feel free to reach over the other options to get him here. If he makes it this far in your draft, you shouldn’t count on him making it back to you next round.

Round 5

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

The fact that Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t been traded might still give Samuel a chance of sliding to this point in your draft. He’s a strong value here if he does.

Remember the upside that found Samuel among the top 3 at the position in 2021.

Next Best: Nico Collins

Collins faces a target-share challenge from new teammate Stefon Diggs, but he also got a large contract extension after a breakthrough 2023. He’d be especially nice as a WR3, which is possible if you don’t panic while your league mates take QB2s.

Other options

Kenneth Walker III, Joe Mixon, Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers

Round 6

Top Target: Aaron Rodgers

Here’s the range where your QB2 patience pays off. Rodgers finished QB13 and QB6 his last two healthy seasons. He doesn’t have to reach either of those spots to pay off a QB20 price tag in superflex ADP.

Next Best: Deshaun Watson

Watson won’t excite anyone, but he finished three of five healthy outings last season among the position’s top 10 in fantasy scoring.

Watson, Geno Smith, and Will Levis stand out as three of the position’s biggest values by our superflex ADP Market Index.

Other options

Tee Higgins, Geno Smith, Will Levis, Aaron Jones, Tank Dell

Round 7

Top Target: James Conner

Another year, another instance of the market undervaluing Conner.

Don’t let his injury history push you away from a guy with three straight seasons of RB1-level scoring. You can fortify your roster with injury insurance around him.

Next Best: David Montgomery

Montgomery gains value the less your scoring format awards for receptions. Even in PPR, though Montgomery delivered RB13 scoring from Week 10 on last season – a span that found him and Jahmyr Gibbs healthy together.

Other options

Deshaun Watson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Terry McLaurin, D’Andre Swift, Chris Godwin

Round 8

Top Target: Geno Smith

This turn presents strong QB3 options if both Smith and Levis get here (with Bryce Young as a decent potential fallback).

Smith finished QB8 in fantasy points per game just two years ago and has better talent around him this season than he did then (before Jaxon Smith-Njigba arrived).

Next Best: Will Levis

Levis has plenty to prove, but Tennessee built up its pass offense around him this offseason.

HC Brian Callahan arrives off five years as Cincinnati’s OC. And the team imported WR Calvin Ridley, RB Tony Pollard, and WR Tyler Boyd via free agency.

Platooning Rodgers or Watson with Smith or Levis in your QB2 slot will give you production just as good as your league mates who reached for QB2s much earlier – with advantages at other positions.

Other options

Rashee Rice, Calvin Ridley, Xavier Worthy, Raheem Mostert, Jonathan Brooks, Tony Pollard

Round 9

Top Target: Raheem Mostert

Even if Mostert regresses from last year’s 21 total TDs (he will), the Dolphins veteran makes plenty of sense as a fantasy reserve. 

Miami’s rush offense ain’t likely to fall apart this season. And the team re-signed Mostert this offseason.

Next Best: DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins’ camp knee injury has pushed his ADP down even further and might challenge his Week 1 availability. But the guy remained a top-30 WR across fantasy formats last season.

His career has included more target-earning than new teammate Calvin Ridley and a higher scoring peak. Each of those factors helps the veteran’s 2024 outlook.

Other options

Diontae Johnson, Tony Pollard, Javonte Williams, Christian Watson

Johnson climbs vs. other players in this range if you’re playing with full PPR scoring. Our Comeback Player of the year makes plenty of sense if you’d rather reach over the other names to grab him here, too.

Round 10

Top Target: Brian Robinson Jr.

Upside Mode kicks on for this turn, which means your 3D Values are giving extra weight to ceiling projections and the player’s likelihood of hitting that ceiling.

Robinson might seem like an odd player to start your “Upside Mode” path, but he has backfield-leading potential in the double-digit rounds. That’s pretty upside-y.

Next Best: Tyjae Spears

Spears looks more like an upside type. We’ll see exactly how he fits with Tony Pollard, but HC Brian Callahan has indicated plans to use both RBs plenty.

Spears will be easier to use in PPR than without reception scoring.

Other options

Chase Brown, Courtland Sutton, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams

Round 11

Top Target: Chase Brown

This recommendation will probably differ if you get here with three WRs instead of four. But the primary takeaway at this turn is that you should target upside where you need it.

If that’s WR, then Brown’s headed for a split with Zack Moss in a Cincinnati backfield that’s been productive whenever QB Joe Burrow has been healthy.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton

If that’s WR, then feel free to select your favorite among Denver’s lead wideout, proven vets Tyler Lockett or Mike Williams, or breakthrough candidate Jameson Williams.

Other options

Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams, Mike Williams

Round 12

Top Target: Taysom Hill

This recommendation depends on Hill qualifying at TE. If he’s a QB on your league-hosting site, then he gets much less interesting.

You might still try to talk yourself into Hill as a superflex QB play, and we’ve seen the high spikes. But qualifying at QB instead of TE simply sets the bar much higher for what Hill needs to deliver – and how often he needs to deliver it.

He’ll likely remain more headache than help at QB.

Next Best: Noah Fant

Fant might not pop to the top or your recommendations even if Hill qualifies at TE and is gone at this turn. That’s because the current 16.12 ADP for Fant in this format says you can bet on him getting back to you in Round 13.

You can certainly take that chance if you’d like, especially if Jets TE Tyler Conklin also remains available. But if there’s a big drop-off behind Fant and the other TEs still available in your league, this might be a good time to ignore ADP and fill an empty position.

We’ll be monitoring Fant’s unclear injury situation, but the team reportedly expect to have Fant ready for the opener.

Other options

Mike Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Gabe Davis, Rashid Shaheed, Jakobi Meyers

Round 13

Top Target: Ty Chandler

If you passed on TE last turn, then Fant (or Hill?) likely leads your recommendations by a wide margin here. He’s a good pick at this stage, with Conklin a solid-to-strong fallback.

If you already addressed TE, then upside RB or WR looks like a good fit here.

Sam Darnold’s also a good QB4 stash if he gets here. Someone in your league will need him this year – maybe even you.

Next Best: Gabe Davis

This name might stir bad feelings in you. Davis has disappointed many fantasy players over the past couple of years.

But his WR62 ADP reflects that disappointment – and gives him far more upside than risk.

Other options

Noah Fant, Sam Darnold, J.K. Dobbins, Brandin Cooks

Round 14

Top Target: Dontayvion Wicks

This range is likely where DST starts entering the picture. You don’t need to draft one yet, though. Even if your league starts taking them earlier than this, you have time.

(Note: This changes, of course, if you play in a format that boosts DST scoring. Your Draft War Room will take that variation into account with the recommendations.)

If you didn’t take Ty Chandler last turn, he probably leads your recommendations here and makes for a good option.

If you took the upside RB last turn, then upside WR makes plenty of sense here. (And vice versa.)

Next Best: Antonio Gibson

Gibson carries some potential standalone value in PPR leagues. But he’s more likely to need an injury to Rhamondre Stevenson to climb off your bench.

Other options

Jaleel McLaughlin, Ja’Lynn Polk, Darnell Mooney, MarShawn Lloyd

Rounds 15-18

Keep targeting upside wherever it makes sense for the roster you’ve built to this point. You’ll likely find options at RB and WR. And if low-level starting QBs such as Darnold or Gardner Minshew remain available, snatch one up. All QB starters should be rostered by the end of your draft.

Otherwise, time to grab your kicker and defense.

Try to get a kicker in a good offense, and be ready to stream them during the season. Our Draft War Room rankings will help you get started. And the in-season kicker model our engineer Alex Korff built will keep helping throughout the year.

On defense, we have built Trust Factor into the Draft War Room this year. That boosts defenses with good early matchups and penalizes those with bad early matchups. Why? Because playing the matchups will give you the best results with fantasy defenses.

Superflex Guide: Pick 5, 6, 7, or 8

Round 1

Top Target: Anthony Richardson

Current ADP says you might get a shot at Lamar Jackson here. If you do, go for it. In my experience, though, you shouldn’t expect him to get out of the top 4 – unless someone’s really excited about Richardson.

Next Best: C.J. Stroud

Ultimately, the reason these four picks are grouped together is because the next four QBs in our rankings – behind Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson – sit pretty close together.

So take the next one up. Or reach over that one for the guy behind him if you’re feeling, say, Joe Burrow over Stroud.

At pretty much any turn throughout your draft, we probably wouldn’t argue with reaching over a guy or three at the top of your board – assuming there’s no huge gap in the 3D Values

Other options

Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott

Round 2

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor/Garrett Wilson

Your Draft War Room won’t downgrade Taylor’s value here if you already have Richardson on your roster. I wouldn’t pair those Colts at the top of your draft, though.

Both individuals carry enough value. But putting them into your lineup every week together puts a lot of pressure on the Colts offense to carry your team on a weekly basis. 

Manage that risk by not betting so heavily on a single team with your first two picks when you’re just trying to win a league.

Next Best: Saquon Barkley

Either Wilson or Barkley make plenty of sense here if you already drafted Richardson – or, of course, if you have some other QB.

You also might find other top RB/WR options falling to you here if your league is pushing more QBs up the board.

Beware of getting caught up in a QB run and reaching for the “next guy” at that position just because you’re scared it’ll dry up. The Draft War Room will point you toward the value in your specific draft.

Other options

Puka Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams

Round 3

Top Target: Drake London

London carries obvious breakout potential this season. He fits well as either your WR1 or WR2, depending on your format and exactly who reaches you in Rounds 2 and 3.

The possibility of landing London as your No. 2 WR in Round 3 is a good example of what can happen when you don’t overrate the importance of securing your QB2 in superflex.

That’s why we recommend targeting other positions even if your league goes on an early-round QB run.

Next Best: Derrick Henry

Of course, Henry also stands as a high-ceiling option in these early rounds – especially if you’re playing half-PPR or non-PPR.

Gus Freakin’ Edwards ran for 13 TDs with the Ravens last year. And then they paid Henry $9 million a year in free agency.

Other options

Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Travis Etienne

Round 4

Top Target: De’Von Achane

Achane will be best paired with a RB likely to see more consistent weekly work.

This 188-pounder isn’t likely to see the same kind of regular rushing load as other RBs going in this range. But he showed us the weekly ceiling last year with top-5 scoring averages across formats.

You can pass on Achane if you’d just rather seek more consistency at the position. But his ceiling makes him worth the draft price.

That upside case might even include a decent share of WR snaps.

Next Best: Deebo Samuel

Samuel’s missed games and crowded offense help his ADP from climbing too high. But he sports top-12 scoring potential whenever healthy. He’s an excellent WR2 or WR3 – and even a quality WR1 if you push off that position a little (or are playing with no reception scoring).

Other options

Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, Isiah Pacheco, Cooper Kupp

Round 5

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

If you get here with a QB, two RBs, and a WR, then it’s WR time here. The specific names will obviously depend on who makes it here in your particular draft.

Next Best: Cooper Kupp

Kupp nearly matched Puka Nacua’s target share when both were healthy together last season. Nacua’s August knee injury adds a little upside to Kupp – who should also be better off in general after battling a hamstring injury much of last year.

Other options

Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, D.K. Metcalf

Round 6

Top Target: Deshaun Watson

The ordering of the QBs might differ on your board. But if any among this quartet remains available, then it’s a good spot to land your second QB.

If you know that your league pushes QBs much earlier – or see that happening in your draft – then it’s OK to make that move a little earlier. Just beware of overreacting to a run at the position.

Next Best: Aaron Rodgers

You might see a string of 4-5 QBs go in, say, Round 4 and feel like you need to get your second guy. But if that happens and then these four remain available at your Round 6 turn, then you probably reached over value at a previous turn.

Other options

Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins

Round 7

Top Target: Terry McLaurin

The Jahan Dotson trade only further confirmed McLaurin as the clear No. 1 target in Washington. That should mean a rebound in target share after McLaurin fell off in that category the past two years.

Add what should be a nice QB upgrade from Sam Howell to Jaylen Daniels, and it’s not hard to get a little excited about McLaurin’s 2024 potential.

Next Best: Deshaun Watson

If you didn’t take Watson last turn, then ADP says you might very well get another shot at him here.

Leaving Round 7 with your QB2 rostered looks like a good idea, whether you get him at this turn or the round before.

Other options

Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, James Conner, David Montgomery

Round 8

Top Target: Geno Smith

Drafting that QB2 before this turn sets you up to snag an upside QB3 here.

Smith ranked eighth among QBs in fantasy points per game just two years ago and has more talent around him now than he did then – plus what should be a pass-friendly new offensive scheme.

Next Best: Will Levis

Levis fits nicely as a QB3. He has plenty to prove and will likely be inconsistent. But he sports a big arm and plus mobility. And at least as importantly, his team invested in the pass offense this year.

New HC Brian Callahan comes off five years as Bengals OC. And the Titans imported:

• WR Calvin Ridley
• RB Tony Pollard
• WR Tyler Boyd

Other options

Raheem Mostert, Rashee Rice, Calvin Ridley, Xavier Worthy

Round 9

Top Target: Raheem Mostert

Even if Mostert regresses from last year’s 21 total TDs (he will), the Dolphins veteran makes plenty of sense as a fantasy reserve. 

Miami’s rush offense ain’t likely to fall apart this season. And the team re-signed Mostert this offseason.

Next Best: DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins’ camp knee injury has pushed his ADP down even further and might challenge his Week 1 availability. But the guy remained a top-30 WR across fantasy formats last season.

His career has included more target-earning than new teammate Calvin Ridley and a higher scoring peak. Each of those factors helps the veteran’s 2024 outlook.

Other options

Diontae Johnson, Tony Pollard, Javonte Williams, Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Round 10

Top Target: Christian Watson

Upside Mode kicks on here, and these WR recommendations reflect that.

The obvious risk with Watson: his history of hamstring injuries. But he said early this offseason that they figured out the primary issue and that he was fixing it. And we’ve seen no sign of hamstring trouble so far this summer.

When he’s been on the field, Green Bay has treated Watson as though it wants him to lead the receiving.

Next Best: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

JSN still faces the challenge of two established veteran WRs on his roster. But Tyler Lockett hits his age-32 season, which has historically been a key point for WR decline, according to our player-aging research.

Smith-Njigba has also indicated that the scheme of new OC Ryan Grubb (Washington Huskies OC the past two years) holds a much better role for the young wideout.

Other options

Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Mike Williams

Round 11

Top Target: Brian Robinson Jr.

This looks like a good turn for RB.

Robinson will share some work with Austin Ekeler. But OC Kliff Kingsbury has called Robinson “a No. 1 back” in the NFL and sees a three-down skill set.

Especially if Ekeler goes down, Robinson holds plenty of upside from this range of your draft.

Next Best: Chase Brown

Brown faces a similar split in the Cincinnati backfield. He looks like more of an upside athlete than mate Zack Moss but will probably need a Moss injury to realize his ceiling.

Other options

Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams

Round 12

Top Target: Taysom Hill

This is the TE turn, so don’t bother with Hill if your league-hosting site designates him a QB.

Sure, Hill has provided a few weeks that would score well enough to succeed at QB. But they have been too infrequent to make him actually startable at that position.

TE, however, presents a much lower bar for useful scoring. And he gets more attractive the less your league awards for receptions.

Next Best: Luke Musgrave

If Hill’s a QB on your site, then any among Musgrave, Noah Fant, or Tyler Conklin looks like a solid late starter pick at TE.

The settings here downplay the value of this one-starter position, which is why every draft position in this article includes waiting a long time for your TE starter.

If your league lineup settings differ in a way that increase TE value (such as two WR starters instead of three or one fewer flex position), then your Draft War Room will probably recommend the position earlier.

Other options

Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Gabe Davis, Rashid Shaheed

Round 13

Top Target: Gabe Davis

You’re filling out your WR corps at this turn, with a range of options.

Don’t let any previous disappointments with Davis keep you from seizing value with him this year. His new team paid him $13 million a year in free agency and doesn’t sport a Stefon Diggs-type target hog.

That should mean more target share for Davis than he got in Buffalo, and potentially a lot more shorter-range, higher-efficiency targets.

Next Best: Brandin Cooks

Cooks’ upside lies in him remaining the WR2 in a productive Dallas offense. It’s OK to reach over him for a different flavor of upside WR if you prefer, though.

Other options

Dontayvion Wicks, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Lynn Polk, Josh Palmer, Darnell Mooney

Round 14

Top Target: Ty Chandler

Chandler might hold some standalone value even when new teammate Aaron Jones is healthy. The former Packer has pretty much always shared work with backfield mates.

But Chandler’s ultimate upside lies in Jones’ risk factors. 

The vet ranks seventh among RBs in injury risk (the probability of losing game time to injury in season). And at nearly 30 (this Dec. 2), Jones could simply decline physically.

Next Best: Dontayvion Wicks

Wicks has ranked among our Sleepers all offseason.

He still needs help on the playing-time front. But he’s going late enough in drafts to be worth stashing. You can always drop him later for waiver help if the playing-time boost doesn’t come.

You could also consider handcuffing Wicks to Christian Watson. An injury to Watson would almost certainly boost Wicks’ playing time.

Other options

Sam Darnold, Antonio Gibson, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ja’Lynn Polk, Darnell Mooney

Rounds 15-18

Keep targeting upside wherever it makes sense for the roster you’ve built to this point. You’ll likely find options at RB and WR. And if low-level starting QBs such as Darnold or Gardner Minshew remain available, snatch one up. All QB starters should be rostered by the end of your draft.

Otherwise, time to grab your kicker and defense.

Try to get a kicker in a good offense, and be ready to stream them during the season. Our Draft War Room rankings will help you get started. And the in-season kicker model our engineer Alex Korff built will keep helping throughout the year.

On defense, we have built Trust Factor into the Draft War Room this year. That boosts defenses with good early matchups and penalizes those with bad early matchups. Why? Because playing the matchups will give you the best results with fantasy defenses.

 

Superflex Guide: Pick 9, 10, 11, or 12

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Targets: Anthony Richardson & Bijan Robinson

The four-position collection here might seem like too broad a stroke. But current superflex ADP says the only difference in our pick recommendations between this grouping and the previous is that you won’t find C.J. Stroud available.

Otherwise, you’ll probably be starting with the best available QB option.

Perhaps the recommendations differ if you’re picking at the end of the round and your league starts especially QB heavy. But you’re more likely to find a worthwhile QB available in Round 1.

Next Best: Joe Burrow & Jonathan Taylor

After you take a QB, you might see Jonathan Taylor as your top recommendation for Round 2. He makes plenty of sense, but I wouldn’t pair him with Richardson to start my draft.

That simply places too much pressure on the Colts offense to deliver for your fantasy team every week.

If Taylor’s gone and our top three RBs also left the board, then you likely get a WR ahead of the remaining RBs.

Leaving Round 2 with one of these QBs and a high-level RB or WR will start you nicely.

Other options

Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: Derrick Henry & Deebo Samuel

You’ll probably see plenty of league mates target their QB2 ahead of this turn. You can do that as well if you really want to.

But as you run through your mock drafts to practice ahead of the real thing, see how you like opening your draft with a QB and then three potential RB/WR studs.

Read on to see the potential QB targets at later turns …

Next Best: De’Von Achane & Jaylen Waddle

This is probably too early to pair up Dolphins on the same roster, because it increases the pressure for that offense to deliver you fantasy points every week.

Either of these guys makes sense as an addition at this level, though. And 

Other options

Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Cooper Kupp, Isiah Pacheco

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Target: Malik Nabers & Aaron Rodgers

Good turn for an upside starter at WR and your QB2.

Nabers, Smith, and Tee Higgins all carry top-15 scoring potential for that first item.

Next Best: DeVonta Smith & Matthew Stafford

And both Rodgers and Stafford delivered top-15 fantasy finishes among QBs in their last healthy seasons (Stafford last year, Rodgers in 2022).

Other options

Tee Higgins, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Kenneth Walker III, Joe Mixon

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Target: Terry McLaurin & Geno Smith

Your QB3 around this turn will give you insurance at the position as well as the ability to platood your second starter.

Smith delivered QB8 fantasy points per game just two years ago and should play in the most pass-friendly scheme of his career this season.

McLaurin already had a clear path to lead-WR status in a Washington offense with a QB upgrade. His target-share upside only grew with the Jahan Dotson trade.

Next Best: Deshaun Watson & Chris Godwin

Watson (and Will Levis behind him) still presents upside here. Even last season, three of his five healthy weeks found him among the top 10 QB scorers.

Betting on Godwin in drafts is easy this year. His WR34 ADP looks like his floor based on the veteran’s past production.

Other options

James Conner, Will Levis, Rashee Rice, Calvin Ridley, David Montgomery

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Target: Javonte Williams & DeAndre Hopkins

With your three QBs secured, this is a good turn for RB and WR insurance.

Upside Mode likely kicks on between these two picks, as it becomes automatic halfway through your draft. That accentuates the ceiling projections and ceiling likelihoods in player valuations to highlight true difference-making upside.

Williams and Hopkins each carry the potential to lead their offenses and come at draft prices much lower than their scoring ceilings.

Next Best: Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Brian Robinson Jr.

Similarly, JSN sports the upside to climb into his team’s top 2 in receiving production this year. Tyler Lockett hits age 32 – a key decline point among WRs, according to our player-aging research – and new OC Ryan Grubb’s scheme should prove much more pass-friendly.

Robinson looks likely to lead Washington’s backfield in touches despite Austin Ekeler’s arrival. You don’t need him to be a weekly starter from this draft position. But there’s a chance he turns into that type of player at some point this year.

Other options

Christian Watson, Courtland Sutton, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, Zack Moss

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Target: Chase Brown & Taysom Hill

Go for an upside RB/WR and a TE around this turn.

I list Hill here in case he qualifies at TE on your site – and especially if you don’t play with full-point PPR scoring.

The buzz around his role in new OC Klint Kubiak’s offense makes Hill an intriguing later-round option. But if he’s a QB on your league-hosting site, that raises the bar for how much and how often he needs to score.

Pass on Hill if he’s listed at QB.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton & Luke Musgrave

Musgrave, Noah Fant, and Tyler Conklin make for solid late TE options if Hill’s not in the picture.

The settings here devalue the one-starter position. But if your league starts fewer WRs or flex spots than we’re using here, then you might very well see TE come up earlier.

Go ahead and follow your Draft War Room there. It knows the particulars of your format better than I do.

Other options

Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant 

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Target: Gabe Davis & Ty Chandler

Assuming you’ve covered all starting positions besides kicker and DST by this point, focus on upside WR/RB plays.

Davis gets a new shot in a new place with no target hog on the roster. He presents far more upside than risk at a WR62 ADP.

Chandler might need an Aaron Jones injury to make him worth starting in your fantasy lineup. But Jones comes in as our seventh most likely RB to lose time to injury in season. And at nearly 30 (on Dec. 2), Jones also presents some decline risk.

Next Best: Brandin Cooks & J.K. Dobbins

Cooks and Dobbins aren’t the same kind of upside plays as Davis and Chandler. But both present plenty of value vs. draft position because of their roles.

Cooks remains the WR2 in a productive – and shallow – Dallas pass offense.

Dobbins enters a Chargers backfield with no established roles under a new coaching staff. There’s obvious risk in his return from an Achilles’ tear, but that’s baked into his draft cost.

Other options

Dontayvion Wicks, Ja’Lynn Polk, Darnell Mooney, Antonio Gibson, Jaleel McLaughlin

Rounds 15-18

Keep targeting upside wherever it makes sense for the roster you’ve built to this point. You’ll likely find options at RB and WR. And if low-level starting QBs such as Darnold or Gardner Minshew remain available, snatch one up. All QB starters should be rostered by the end of your draft.

Otherwise, time to grab your kicker and defense.

Try to get a kicker in a good offense, and be ready to stream them during the season. Our Draft War Room rankings will help you get started. And the in-season kicker model our engineer Alex Korff built will keep helping throughout the year.

On defense, we have built Trust Factor into the Draft War Room this year. That boosts defenses with good early matchups and penalizes those with bad early matchups. Why? Because playing the matchups will give you the best results with fantasy defenses.

Time to Win YOUR Superflex Draft

You've read through a potential plan for your superflex draft. But you and I both know your draft isn't likely to follow a plan.

That's why we built the Draft War Room, which will sync directly with your league and dynamically update your player recommendations as you draft.

So you're ready for anything.

Get your Draft War Room ready now.

And you can find more superflex strategy in the video below ...