Superflex Draft Guide: Is Trevor Lawrence About to be Uncomfortably Important?

How to Attack Your Superflex Draft

QBs will obviously go earlier in your superflex draft, as they should. The whole point of the format is to add value to that position.

But the key to winning your superflex league -- and especially your superflex draft -- might actually lie in not over-valuing the position.

That’s why Tip 1 in our Superflex Draft Strategy reads: Don’t Overvalue QBs in Superflex.

We’ll get more into that as we run through this article. And you can find even more in that linked article above.

The Draft Setup

We’re running through a full superflex draft from every position here to determine top strategies and even specific player targets.

It’s vital to understand the specifics of the format, though. They’ll shape the way you draft and impact the recommendations your Draft War Room delivers.

Here’s the lineup I’ve used for this exercise:

• 1 QB
• 2 RBs
• 3 WRs
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 Superflex (QB/RB/WR/TE)
• 1 K
• 1 DST
• 7 bench spots

Perhaps that goes deeper than your league’s starting lineup. But in my experience, superflex leagues tend to lean deeper.

That’s kinda the point of the position, right? To add not only value to QBs but also a strategy challenge for fantasy managers.

These lineup settings produce an 18-round draft, and I’m using PPR scoring.

Of course, if your format's a little different, then your pick recommendations will be different. But the Draft War Room will be ready for any variations.

Superflex Guide: Pick 1 or 2

Round 1

Top Target: Lamar Jackson

Jackson just finished leading all QB scorers for the second time in six seasons, outscoring No. 2 Joe Burrow by more than 2 points per game (depending on your format). He added two other top-5 finishes in points per game in between.

We all know about the rushing. But did you realize that Jackson's also the active leader in career passing-TD rate?

Next Best: Jayden Daniels

Remove the two games he left early, and Daniels' rookie season found him tying Joe Burrow for second among QBs in fantasy points per game.

Daniels trailed only Lamar Jackson in rushing yards and delivered strong rate stats on the passing side despite an unattractive band of pass catchers.

Washington tried to upgrade that by trading for Deebo Samuel.

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: De'Von Achane & A.J. Brown

With your stud QB secured, time to snatch high-end talent at RB and WR.

Achane managed a RB5 PPR finish in his second season, thanks largely to catching 10 more passes than any other RB. He scored better when Tua Tagovailoa was in the lineup and would benefit from the offense rebounding on whole.

A.J. Brown lost three games to a hamstring injury (and sat out a meaningless Week 18). But he also ranked second in the league in target share and third among WRs in fantasy points per route.

Better health would obviously boost him, but we're also betting on at least a slight uptick in the team's pass rate.

Last year's 44.3% pass rate was 3.2 percentage points lower than No. 2 Baltimore and 4.6 percentage points short of the previous low under HC Nick Sirianni.

Next Best: Drake London & Jonathan Taylor

London ranked just 14th among WRs in PPR points per game last season, but his numbers catapulted over the three-game finish with QB Michael Penix Jr.

We probably can't expect him to average 13 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 117.3 yards per game over a full season with the new starter. But we've at least seen the upside.

London also ranked fifth in the league for the full season in target share.

Taylor scored like a low-end RB1 when Anthony Richardson played last season but delivered a scoring average that would have led the position when Joe Flacco took the field.

This year should either give us Daniel Jones -- not exciting but likely to improve on last year's QB situation -- or a much better version of Richardson.

And either edition should find Taylor pushing for the league carry lead. Any rebound in his target volume would enhance his shot at leading the position in fantasy scoring.

Other options

• Tee Higgins
• Ladd McConkey

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Tyreek Hill & Kenneth Walker III

Hill stunk last year, relative to his previous performance. Even his numbers when Tua Tagovailoa played marked steep declines vs. Hill's previous two Miami seasons.

There's some risk that the 31-year-old speedster is declining. But it's also possible his wrist injury (which required two offseason surgeries) and the team's overarching offensive issues were 2024's biggest culprits.

Hill's a decent risk-reward bet at the bottom of WR1 territory.

Walker has already navigated a minor camp injury and returned to the field. If he can stay healthy during the regular season, he has a real shot to deliver his best pro season yet. New OC Klint Kubiak has talked him up on multiple occasions since arriving.

Next Best: Alvin Kamara & Mike Evans

Kamara's simply a bet on strong work volume. He led all RBs in expected PPR points per game last year, thanks primarily to a large lead in targets per game.

The Saints' November extension at more than $12 million per year plus no big backfield additions this offseason signals similar 2025 usage.

Evans turns 32 in August, an age that historically presents cliff risk at the position. But he's coming off an 11th-straight 1,000-yard season (despite missing three games) and his fourth year of 11+ TDs among the past five campaigns.

Evans even delivered a career-best 62.7% receiving success rate in 2024, according to Pro Football Reference.

Chris Godwin's early-season ankle uncertainty only makes Evans a better bet for September opportunities.

Other Options

• Chuba Hubbard
• James Conner
• Davante Adams

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Trevor Lawrence & James Conner

Lawrence has disappointed through four seasons, but that span did include a pair of top-13 finishes in fantasy points per game.

That's enough of a foundation on which to build an upside case. And that upside comes from Jacksonville upgrading the WR talent over the past two years -- Brian Thomas Jr., and then Travis Hunter -- and hiring promising, young offensive coach Liam Coen as the HC.

Coen's recent OC stops with the Bucs and University of Kentucky have featured statistical success stories such as Wan'Dale Robinson and last year's Baker Mayfield blowup.

Conner's so underrated that I just unofficially renamed our annual Underrated Players article after him.

Next Best: J.J. McCarthy & Jaylen Waddle

McCarthy remains an NFL unknown after losing his rookie season to a meniscus injury. But Minnesota believes enough to have drafted him 10th overall last year (ahead of Bo Nix) and carry only Sam Howell as insurance into McCarthy's first starting campaign.

The setting has been nice for QB numbers since HC Kevin O'Connell arrived. Those Vikings have ranked fifth, seventh, and ninth in QB fantasy points.

Waddle comes off a dud of a fourth season, but his previous three found these ranks among WRs in PPR points per game:

• 15th
• 14th
• 22nd

Other options

• David Montgomery
• Zay Flowers

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: George Pickens & Tua Tagovailoa

Pickens goes from being the No. 1 in Pittsburgh to the No. 2 in Dallas, but he might actually fare better on target volume.

Dallas ranked third in the league in pass attempts last season, vs. Pittsburgh at No. 29.

Tagovailoa brings his own -- scarier -- injury risk but has remained a high-upside weekly play when healthy. Even last year, that included five top-10 fantasy weeks among his 11 appearances.

Next Best: Calvin Ridley & Bryce Young

Ridley's well set up for potentially the best target volume of his career. He climbed from 37th among WRs in target share through Week 7 last season to 21st after Tennessee traded DeAndre Hopkins.

This season brings still-iffy competition -- adding age-33 Tyler Lockett and a pair of fourth-round rookies -- and a likely QB upgrade (first overall pick Cam Ward).

Young rebounded big time from an early-season benching in his second year. We don't know yet whether his ceiling reaches an exciting level. But we can take a guy at this point who ranked 17th among QBs in fantasy points per game over his final 10 outings last year.

Tetairoa McMillan's arrival should certainly help.

Other Options

• Matthew Stafford
• Geno Smith
• Deebo Samuel
• Jakobi Meyers

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Jayden Reed & Stefon Diggs

This turn looks good for WR help. This pairing would give you New England's likely target leader (solid floor play) and a Packers WR who has ranked top 10 in scoring over expectation each of his two NFL seasons.

Reed still faces a low-volume issue in Green Bay's spread-it-around passing offense. But bet on the team to rebound passing volume overall after running at a dramatically higher rate than in any of HC Matt LaFleur's previous five seasons.

Health appears to be on Diggs' side entering the season, despite his October ACL tear. The veteran opened training camp with full clearance and could quickly hoard targets in a needy New England offense.

Next Best: Dalton Kincaid & Josh Downs

Kincaid's 2025 upside case starts with him staying healthier. Last season found a pair of leg injuries hampering his performance. But Kincaid still landed 10th among TEs in target share, right in line with the second half of his rookie season.

Downs carries some risk thanks to a lackluster QB situation. But his ADP bakes that in. And the upside reaches at least into high-WR3 territory.

He finished last season 31st among WRs in PPR points per game despite a horrible passing performance by Anthony Richardson across the QB's 11 outings.

Other Options

• Josh Downs
• Khalil Shakir

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Tyjae Spears & Austin Ekeler

Spears and Ekeler stand close in 3D Value at this turn, well ahead of Tank Bigsby and the other listed RBs.

They're a fine pair to select together. Spears presents a questionable early-season role but huge upside in the case of a Tony Pollard injury.

Ekeler sports a less exciting ceiling but also a more clearly defined role. He's a RB3-level asset who can give you decent PPR floor potential when needed (plus some TD upside in an offense that ranked fifth in scoring last season).

Next Best: Zach Ertz & Keon Coleman

If you didn't take a TE yet, then Ertz makes for a better selection than the market wants you to believe.

He finished 11th among TEs in PPR scoring last year (total points and points per game) and ninth in expected points per game. Washington's new one-year deal at double Ertz's 2024 salary indicates more of the same role.

Coleman's a fun upside case to stash on your bench after he drew quiet end-zone target volume last year and impressed with his yards after catch.

Shakir returns after leading the team in targets last season, but he also ranked just 35th among WRs in that category. The differing styles between Shakir and Coleman leave room for both.

Other Options

• Tank Bigsby
• J.K. Dobbins
• Rachaad White
• Bhayshul Tuten
• Rashid Shaheed
• Marquise Brown

Rounds 14 & 15

Top Targets: Daniel Jones & Marquise Brown

Brown missed basically all of last season after an August shoulder injury. But the Chiefs hit reset with another one-year deal, and Patrick Mahomes has called the WR a "special player."

Be wary of Brown, though, if his ankle issue continues to linger.

Jones has been named the season-opening starter, which might push him out of range for this pick. But if available, he's a nice QB3.

Next Best: Cedric Tillman & Joe Flacco

It should have surprised exactly no one when Cleveland named Flacco the starter. We'll see how long that lasts, but the Browns sport no clear heir, no QB they need to be developing quickly (despite what the Shedeur Sanders continues to indicate).

Flacco's a later-round superflex sleeper because no one's excited about him -- and you shouldn't be -- but he remained fantasy relevant the past two years.

That included six top-18 fantasy finishes among his eight appearances for the Colts last year and five straight top-13 finishes to close out 2023 with the Browns.

There's at least a chance that Tillman -- in his third season -- emerges as Flacco's most productive target. Tillman enjoyed a terrific four-game stretch as Jameis Winston's top target and a WR1-level producer last year before a concussion ended his season.

Other Options

Basically any upside WRs and/or RBs you like.

Rounds 16-18

Grab your kicker, DST, and one more upside play among these final three picks.

We’ve added Trust Factor to the Draft War Room, which will help you select the best defense option by boosting those with good initial matchups and penalizing defenses that open with poor matchups.

The war room will also guide you at kicker, of course, where you’re optimally getting a reliable performer in a good offense.

Superflex Guide: Pick 3 or 4

Round 1

Top Target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels sits second in our QB rankings but fourth in the current ADP for this format. Even if that doesn't quite match reality when you're drafting, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have spent the year so far leaving draft boards as the top two QBs.

Those two have flipped order, but you'll likely see Daniels go third among QBs on average, and Hurts fourth. And we value the top 5 QBs ahead of the rest of the position players for most superflex formats.

The case for Daniels is pretty easy: His scoring average for last year's 15 healthy games would have narrowly trailed Joe Burrow for third among QBs. Daniels delivered as a passer and runner, and his team acquired Deebo Samuel in the offseason to bolster a weak WR corps.

Next Best: Jalen Hurts

Hurts should be easy to like as well. His scoring average across 14 healthy games would have ranked fourth at the position last year. And he scored even better the previous two years.

Hurts' expected rushing TDs actually increased with Saquon Barkley's arrival, as the higher-powered offense grew scoring opportunities.

Bet on at least some bounce back in passing volume after the Eagles went extreme (55.7% run) with the run-pass split in 2024, even for them.

Hurts would also benefit if A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert don't combine for 15 missed player games.

Round 2

Top Target: Nico Collins

Our superflex ADP as of this writing has just six QBs leaving the board by your Round 2 turn. Don't be surprised if you're league drafts more, and don't be fooled.

You locked down your stud QB1 in the first round, so you can afford to push the next one off a bit. If your league mates start gobbling Round 2 QBs, then you'll just find even better non-QB options at this spot.

As it is, Collins looks good to start building our 3-WR lineup in the second half of Round 2. Part of his valuation: The RB crop expected to be available in Round 3 looks good.

Next Best: De'Von Achane

ADP also says, however, that you'll be able to find solid-to-good WR targets over the next three rounds. So if Collins is gone, Achane might be your guy.

He's a strong RB1 for your PPR squad after ranking second at the position in targets and first in catches last year.

And it wasn't a matter of loading up on targets while Tua Tagovailoa was out. Achane actually delivered better fantasy production when the starting QB played.

Other Options

• A.J. Brown
• Drake London
• Jonathan Taylor

Round 3

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor

Taylor's ADP near the middle of Round 3 likely played a key role in Collins (or another WR) leading your Round 2 recommendations.

Perhaps he climbs as we get closer to September, but I'm not betting the Colts spend August crushing all the skepticism surrounding their offense.

If you finish this turn with a stud QB, Collins, and Taylor, then you're starting a strong build.

Next Best: A.J. Brown

Sub in Brown and Achane for Collins and Taylor, and you're also heading down a good path.

Brown disappointed last year vs. his draft position, finishing just 19th in total PPR points and 13th in points per game. But he missed four full games and left another early.

Brown ranked third among WRs in PPR points per route, beating his rates from his previous two Eagles seasons.

Other Options

• Tee Higgins
• Chase Brown

Round 4

Top Target: Tyreek Hill

Get here with the QB, WR, and RB, and you're likely to find Hill narrowly ahead of Kamara -- with the other guys further behind in 3D Value.

We're willing to bet on a Hill bounce back around the bottom of WR1 territory. He's getting to a risky age range, though not yet to the age-32 season our aging-curve data warns about.

Hill also played through a wrist injury last year that required two offseason surgeries. At the very least, that issue plus QB Tua Tagovailoa missing six games challenged Hill's production.

Next Best: Alvin Kamara

Kamara led all RBs in expected PPR points last year, thanks largely to leading the position in targets despite missing three games.

New Orleans extended Kamara in October at more than $12 million per year and then added only a sixth-round rookie to the backfield.

The Saints clearly want Kamara central to the offense again in 2025.

Other Options

• Kenneth Walker III
• Mike Evans

Round 5

Top Target: Kenneth Walker III

Walker and Kamara will be competing to lead your recommendations over these two turns, and it's OK to favor either guy if you find both available.

Kamara brings the benefit of proven receiving production. That included leading the position in targets and catches per game last year, and he should remain vital to the renovated pass offense.

Walker might beat Kamara on upside, though. He has delivered strong rushing production through three seasons, and new OC Klint Kubiak has praised Walker's receiving ability this summer.

If Walker can stay healthy, he could be in for a breakout season.

Next Best: James Conner

You'll find RBs with varying types of risk at this turn. That only makes Conner more attractive.

Is he getting old? Sure. He turned 30 in May. But that means he was also "old" for the position last season. And Conner scored like a top-12 RB for the fourth straight season.

It's worth noting that we've gotten here with a QB, one RB, and two WRs. If you grab your second RB before your No. 2 wideout, then this round of recommendations will look at least a little different.

Other Options

• Chuba Hubbard
• David Montgomery

Round 6

Top Target: Trevor Lawrence

Format ADP as of this writing has 16 other QBs leaving the board before Fields. I don't expect that to prove true for your draft, but these two QBs should stand a good chance of reaching this range.

Lawrence suddenly boasts enviable talent at WR, with No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter joining 2024 rookie breakout Brian Thomas Jr. And new HC Liam Coen just presided over a top-5 fantasy season for Baker Mayfield.

Lawrence has plenty to prove in the pros but also brings more rushing upside than Mayfield.

Next Best: J.J. McCarthy

McCarthy has proved even less than Lawrence, thanks to missing all of his rookie season with a meniscus injury. But he steps into a Minnesota offense that resurrected Sam Darnold's career in 2024.

The Vikings drafted McCarthy 10th overall just last year and have finished three straight seasons among the top 6 in both passing yards and passing TDs, despite QB changes each year.

Having Justin Jefferson on your side ain't bad.

Other Options

• Jaylen Waddle
• Courtland Sutton
• Zay Flowers

Round 7

Top Target: David Montgomery

We've gotten here with two QBs, two RBs, and two WRs. And although Montgomery leads the recommendations at this turn, the next seven players all sit within 6.0 points of Monty's 3D Value (70.0 on this board).

Montgomery actually led Jahmyr Gibbs in usage before spraining an ankle in Week 15. We'll see what new OC John Morton does with the workload split, but Monty's at least a solid bet as your RB3 at this stage.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle

The Draft War Room leans RB here because of the WR quality that will remain on the board later. But Waddle's nearly tied with Montgomery in 3D Value on my board (0.2 behind). So feel free to go wideout instead.

Waddle let fantasy managers down big time last year. Losing his QB for four early-season games didn't help. But even the 4.6 receptions and 64.6 yards he averaged in nine games with Tua Tagovailoa checked in below his career averages.

Waddle's WR56 finish in PPR points per game also fell way out of line with his previous three seasons, which produced rankings of:

• 22nd
• 14th
• 15th

Waddle's downturn in both production and usage coincided with a down year for the Miami offense. Bet on HC Mike McDaniel trying to fix Waddle's usage as part of the overall solution.

Other Options

• Isiah Pacheco
• Bryce Young
• Zay Flowers
• D'Andre Swift

Round 8

Top Target: Ricky Pearsall

This turn featured Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley as the early options. But Godwin now looks like he's headed for an inactive September, and Ridley's ADP now puts him just ahead of this range. If Ridley gets to you, he'll probably lead these guys in your recommendations.

Pearsall arrives with attractive upside. He lives among our top Breakout picks for the year, and both Shane and Kevin highlighted him as a potential League Winner.

He has a real shot to quickly emerge as San Francisco's No. 1 WR in his second season, thanks to Deebo Samuel's departure and Brandon Aiyuk's lingering ACL recovery.

Next Best: Jakobi Meyers

Meyers is the kind of unexciting pick that sets your foundation for the season. He has finished three straight years among the top 30 WRs in PPR points per game. The role climbed to near WR1 territory after Vegas traded away Davante Adams last season.

Other options

• Tua Tagovailoa
• Bryce Young
• Matthew Stafford
• Deebo Samuel

Round 9

Top Target: Tua Tagovailoa

Good spot for your QB3, and that's the best fit for the Dolphins passer.

Tagovailoa brings obvious risk in his concussion history. Even when healthy, he's more of a weekly boom-bust scorer than most at the position. But the "boom" side of that reaches high when Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are healthy and seeing proper usage.

Even last year found Tua finishing five of his 11 starts among the top 10 fantasy QBs, including a No. 3 peak in Week 12.

Next Best: Matthew Stafford

If you'd rather avoid the Tua risk, then Stafford or Geno Smith can fit just fine as well. Both -- and Sam Darnold, though I trust him less -- trail narrowly behind Miami's QB in 3D Value at this turn.

Stafford has posted modest numbers over the past three years, thanks especially to sub-4.0% TD rates in 2022 and 2024. But Davante Adams' arrival plus better health for Puka Nacua mean plenty of weekly upside.

Of course, we'll keep an eye on Stafford's own risk: his back injury.

Other Options

• Geno Smith
• Sam Darnold
• Deebo Samuel

Round 10

Top Target: Khalil Shakir

We've engaged Upside Mode for this round, just past the halfway point of our 18-round draft. That means the Draft War Room calculations apply more weight to each player's ceiling projection and his projected ceiling likelihood.

Why? Because the deeper you get into your draft, the more you should be focused on chasing ceiling outcomes over worrying about a player's downside.

Of course, you can toggle Upside Mode off if you don't want that extra ceiling emphasis. Or you can toggle it on earlier to get the effect.

Shakir might seem like an odd fit for "Upside Mode," but we're not throwing out the rankings to chase boom-bust players in this range.

Shakir's not a lock to keep the target lead in Buffalo, but he enters 2025 as the favorite to do so. We'll continue tracking the status of his high-ankle sprain. But HC Sean McDermott says they expect the WR to be ready for Week 1.

Next Best: Jayden Reed

Reed does fit more of the weekly boom-bust profile. Only six WRs scored further above their expected PPR points per game last season, and Reed ranked ninth in that category as a 2023 rookie.

Last year's Packers leaned much harder on the run than in any previous Matt LaFleur season. Any regression back toward more passing would help Reed's scoring potential.

These four WRs aren't separated by much, so feel free to grab your favorite option.

Other Options

• Stefon Diggs
• Josh Downs

Round 11

Top Target: Stefon Diggs

Diggs got more attractive when he opened training camp on time, despite tearing his right ACL in October.

He joins a New England offense in desperate need of a target leader, will play with a promising, young QB, and should benefit from the Patriots leaning back toward competence at OC (Josh McDaniels' third stint).

Diggs' upside lies primarily in his target-share outlook. If he's truly back to full strength, the veteran could rebound his scoring efficiency as well.

Next Best: Josh Downs

Downs outperformed teammate Michael Pittman Jr. last season (though, to be fair, Pittman was playing through a back injury).

The QB situation remains subpar, but that's why you can wait until the double-digit rounds to bet on a Year 3 jump for Downs' production.

He ranked a solid 17th among WRs in target share last season.

Other options

• Tyjae Spears
• Michael Pittman Jr.

Round 12

Top Target: Austin Ekeler

Ekeler became a better click when the Commanders traded Brian Robinson Jr. away.

The veteran's not likely to morph into a lead back after he got just 7.7 touches per game in his first Washington season. But Ekeler now shares the backfield primarily with unproven youngsters Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez.

He remains the group's best receiving bet and now carries a bit more carry-volume upside.

Next Best: Tyjae Spears

Spears got riskier with his preseason high-ankle sprain. But there's time for him to get all the way back by mid-September, and the upside remains for a healthy Spears. He's still stashable.

Other options

• Tank Bigsby
• J.K. Dobbins
• Bhayshul Tuten

Round 13

Top Target: Zach Ertz

If you didn't take Ekeler last time, he might stay on the board here. Whether that's the case or not, you can pretty much target whatever you want here.

It's OK if you forgot that we haven't taken a TE yet in this particular draft, and this is partly why.

Ertz sits just 22nd among TEs in best ball ADP as of this writing. (I know we're not drafting here, but ADP carries loads more volume than other formats to date.) He finished last year 11th in both total PPR points and points per game.

Perhaps he falls off at age 34 (35 on Nov. 10). But Washington didn't re-sign him at double his 2024 salary to become a coach.

Next Best: Rashid Shaheed

If you already have a TE or still don't want to target one yet, then grab an upside play at either WR or RB.

Shaheed certainly fits that. He sat 34th among WRs in PPR points per game when the knee injury ended his 2024 season. Now he's going outside the top 50.

Other options

• Rashid Shaheed
• Marquise Brown
• Tank Bigsby
• J.K. Dobbins

Round 14

Top Target: Chig Okonkwo

The increased emphasis on QB in this format means we need to decrease our focus somewhere else. That could mean waiting on third options at RB and/or WR. But in this case, it means waiting on TE.

I've just been removing players from the board according to ADP as I go, and that means 21 drafted tight ends before we reach this point. I'm guessing your league probably won't go so TE-hungry that just about every team has two before you target one. And if that's correct, then you're likely to get higher-ranked options than Okonkwo here.

That said, he's a fine option in the "wait as long as you can" TE method.

Okonkwo's playing time increased over the second half of last season, which followed the DeAndre Hopkins trade. And his four largest target tallies came among his final five full games.

Even that busiest span still found Okonkwo scoring outside the position's top 12. But there's TE15-level scoring potential if that role continues into 2025.

Next Best: Mike Gesicki

Gesicki's a similar option. He'll play in a much better offense than Okonkwo -- the league's most pass-friendly, in fact -- but Gesicki will also deal with target hogs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Gesicki spent most of last season scoring like a fantasy starter when Higgins was out and disappearing from the boxscore when Higgins played. That changed for his final two games, though, when Gesicki racked up 22 targets and 18 catches.

Higgins played a little less than usual in those two contests, thanks to an ankle that rendered him questionable for each contest. But those weeks found room for all three pass catchers to be relevant. And then Cincinnati gave the "TE" a huge pay boost: Gesicki's three-year deal at $8.5 million per season ended a string of low-dollar, one-year Bengal commitments at the position.

Perhaps the team's ready to get more starter-level weeks out of Gesicki even with healthy WRs. That upside is worth betting on at his low draft cost, even if it doesn't pan out.

Other options

• Marquise Brown
• Romeo Doubs

Rounds 15-18

Keep targeting upside wherever it makes sense for the roster you’ve built to this point. You’ll likely find options at RB and WR. And if low-level starting QBs such as the Colts or Browns guys remain available, snatch one up. All QB starters should be rostered by the end of your draft.

Otherwise, time to grab your kicker and defense.

Try to get a kicker in a good offense, and be ready to stream them during the season. Our Draft War Room rankings will help you get started. And the in-season kicker model our engineer Alex Korff built will keep helping throughout the year.

On defense, we have built Trust Factor into the Draft War Room this year. That boosts defenses with good early matchups and penalizes those with bad early matchups. Why? Because playing the matchups will give you the best results with fantasy defenses.

Superflex Guide: Pick 5 or 6

Round 1

Top Target: Jalen Hurts

Format ADP says Hurts could reach you at this point in Round 1. I'm not sure I trust that overall, but it'll certainly happen in some superflex drafts.

If Hurts reaches you anywhere from Pick 4 on, he should be an easy click.

Last year's No. 9 fantasy finish looked disappointing. But Hurts ranked fifth in points per game, fourth if you remove the Week 16 game he left in the first quarter. And that followed top-3 overall finishes each of the previous two seasons.

Next Best: Joe Burrow

Burrow landed second among fantasy QBs in most formats last season. He's obviously capable of reaching that height again after leading the NFL in attempts, completions, passing yards, and TDs in 2024.

Burrow sits fifth in our QB rankings because he lacks the rushing value of the top 4, and that makes it more imperative that he stays near peak in his passing efficiency.

We're obviously not betting on Burrow falling from that, but there's slight downside risk if he doesn't match career-high rates. That said, Burrow sits clearly ahead of No. 6 Patrick Mahomes in our rankings.

Other options

• Patrick Mahomes

Despite that aforementioned gap, Mahomes still has the upside to post a season like Burrow's 2024 -- especially with probably the best corps of WRs he's ever had.

Round 2

Top Target: Nico Collins

If you lead with a stud QB, then it's time to grab either your lead WR or RB.

Collins edges McCaffrey here primarily because of what ADP says you'll likely find at RB next round. But CMC trails by less than 1 point in 3D Value. So you can feel free to grab your favorite between them.

Collins managed a WR9 finish in PPR points per game last year despite losing five games to a hamstring injury and leaving three others early. He was scoring like a potential WR1 overall in the four games before the initial injury, averaging:

• 10.8 targets
• 7.5 receptions
• 122.3 yards
• 0.5 TDs

Next Best: Christian McCaffrey

It's OK to feel nervous about McCaffrey after he missed 13 games last year, and it's even OK to pass on him for that reason.

But you can't ignore the upside of his 2023. McCaffrey not only led all RB scorers, he racked up 3.3 more PPR points per game than No. 2 Kyren Williams and 6.7 more per game than No. 3 Raheem Mostert.

The ceiling here doesn't just lead all RBs; it's being the most impactful player in fantasy.

Other options

• A.J. Brown
• Drake London
• De'Von Achane

Round 3

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor

If things fall this way in your draft, you're basically targeting the opposite of whatever you chose last round.

I snagged Collins for this exercise, and Taylor makes for an attractive lead RB. He led the position in scoring back in 2021, the last time he played all 17 games. And even last year, Taylor scored like the No. 1 RB in games Joe Flacco started.

Expect loads of rushing volume and a better target share than he got last year.

Next Best: Tee Higgins

If you chose McCaffrey in Round 2, then Higgins makes plenty of sense here. (Although you'd really be tempting the injury gods with a CMC-Higgins squad.)

Higgins finished last season sixth among WRs in points per game. He landed 13th two years before, the last time he had a healthy Burrow.

Stacking Higgins with Burrow -- if you drafted the Cincinnati QB earlier -- would be fine, though it's not an important factor for single-league play.

Other options

• Chase Brown
• Breece Hall
• Tyreek Hill

Round 4

Top Target: Alvin Kamara

The Draft War Room's not worried about you reaching for your second QB in this range, and you shouldn't be either -- even if your league mates get QB-hungry.

The values go flat in the range from just behind Mahomes well into QB2 territory. So you can wait and still do just fine.

Kamara, meanwhile, gives you an RB2 who led the entire position in expected PPR points per game last year. The biggest reason: He crushed everyone else in targets per game (6.4 vs. 5.1 for No. 2 De'Von Achane).

Next Best: Tyreek Hill

Hill needs to bounce back from an alarmingly down 2024. Even his production with Tua Tagovailoa on the field saw significant decline vs. Hill's first two Miami campaigns.

His age (31) makes the speedy Hill a bit more worrisome as a bounce-back bet. But he's still a year short of the age that our dynasty research points to for cliff risk at WR. And Hill's ADP on the WR1 fringe makes it a little easier to chase the upside case.

If you'd rather pass, there will be attractive WRs available over the next few rounds.

Other options

• Kenneth Walker

Round 5

Top Target: Davante Adams

See? The very next turn sports a couple of guys with top-12 histories.

Adams reached that aforementioned age of worry (32) for WRs in December. But he showed no signs of falling off last season and then got big money from the Rams -- despite being six months older than Cooper Kupp (whom they booted to make room).

Adams finished 2024 ranked 12th among WRs in PPR points per game, despite opening the year with a bad Raiders offense and then joining Garrett Wilson's Jets.

Next Best: D.J. Moore

Moore finished his first two Bears seasons ranked sixth and 14th among WRs in PPR points. Drafters are overthinking it a little by knocking him down to WR21 in ADP so far.

Is there some chance the new guys chip away at Moore's target share? Sure.

But if you believe that the Bears' offense will significantly improve under new HC Ben Johnson, then it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to bet against the 28-year-old lead WR who has spent seven years delivering worthwhile numbers with bad QBs.

Other options

• DK Metcalf
• Xavier Worthy
• Tetairoa McMillan

Round 6

Top Target: Trevor Lawrence

The ADP in my Draft War Room says Justin Fields can get here. Perhaps, but I'm not betting that he will. In that case, Lawrence pops as the top QB and your recommended target here.

Lawrence has underwhelmed across four seasons vs. his No. 1 overall draft status. But the arrival of HC Liam Coen and No. 2 pick WR Travis Hunter make Lawrence at least an upside QB2.

His rushing -- 18.1 yards and 0.23 TDs per game for his career -- raise the floor and ceiling.

Next Best: J.J. McCarthy

McCarthy missed his rookie season thanks to a meniscus tear, but he's the uncontested starter now.

Like Lawrence, the Vikings QB has plenty to prove. But getting Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on your side can't hurt. And Minnesota has just been good for QB scoring since Kevin O'Connell arrived.

Despite different starter setups each year, here's how the Vikings have finished in QB fantasy points:

• fifth
• seventh
• ninth

Other options

• James Conner
• David Montgomery
• DK Metcalf

Round 7

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle

Waddle's 2024 stunk. That production drop-off would be more alarming, though, if he weren't a 26-year-old former sixth overall pick with three much better seasons behind it.

Waddle finished his first three years ranked 15th, 14th, and 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game.

Miami should be looking to fix Waddle's usage as a key to ameliorating last year's all-around offensive meltdown.

Next Best: Isiah Pacheco

Whew did Pacheco stink after returning from injury last season ...

So why bother highlighting him for 2025 drafts? Because Kansas City's actions -- only modest offseason additions to the backfield -- and Andy Reid's words signal that the team still believes in him as lead back.

You can draft Pacheco at a low-risk price, and you get a guy with a top-15 fantasy season behind him (in a pretty good offense).

Other options

• D'Andre Swift
• Courtland Sutton
• George Pickens

Round 8

Top Target: Tua Tagovailoa

Let's start by breaking down some barriers at this slot ...

This is how my Draft War Room ranks the four QBs atop my pick recommendations. But the quartet's separated by just 2.7 total points in 3D Value. So if you favor any of them, grab your guy.

The case for Tua: He finished ninth among QBs in scoring just two years ago, including three top-3 weeks and three others among the top 10. Even last year found him finishing five of 11 appearances among that week's top 10.

He's a boom-bust weekly scorer. So play the matchups if you draft Tagovailoa, and be wary of him if either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle misses time.

Next Best: Bryce Young

I'll be honest: Jared's more excited about Young this year than I am. That's why he wrote up the Carolina QB as a Deep Sleeper.

But that doesn't mean I dislike Young here. He rebounded from an early-season benching to rank 17th among QBs in fantasy points per game over his final 10 games.

Add a new lead WR drafted eighth overall, and the upside case gets easier to believe.

Other Options

• Matthew Stafford
• Cam Ward

Round 9

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

With starter spots filled at RB (two) and WR (three) but no reserves yet at either position, the Draft War Room is basically telling me to target what I want.

Samuel, Meyers, and Jaylen Warren all display at 60.0 points in 3D Value.

Samuel trails Meyers in baseline projection but beats him in our ceiling projections. That's fair. Meyers looks easier to project as a more traditional WR who didn't switch teams.

Samuel, though, lands with an OC who likes scheming the kind of short passes that can leverage his run-after-catch skills. And Jayden Daniels is probably the best QB Samuel has played with.

Next Best: Jakobi Meyers

Meyers, meanwhile, just goes quietly underrated annually.

Meyers finished last season 14th among WRs in expected PPR points per game; 23rd in actual points per game.

He sits just 40th at the position in ADP.

Other options

• Jaylen Warren
• Jauan Jennings
• Travis Etienne

Round 10

Top Target: Stefon Diggs

Welcome to Upside Mode.

Your Draft War Room automatically switched that on for this round, because we've crossed the halfway point of this 18-round draft. That mode means the value calculations now increase the emphasis on ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood.

The later you get into your draft, the more you want to chase attractive ceiling over worrying about downside.

Diggs actually makes for a fairly easy click at this point. He's the heavy favorite to lead New England in targets and could dominate that category.

Next Best: Khalil Shakir

Shakir doesn't obviously fit Upside Mode. But there's undeniable upside to being able to land a team's target leader this late in your draft.

That was Shakir last year. We'll just have to watch his high-ankle sprain to see if he's ready for Week 1.

Other options

• Jayden Reed
• Dalton Kincaid

Round 11

Top Target: Josh Downs

This round features a couple of attractive targets for your fifth WR spot.

Even with the low pass rate and crap at QB last year, Downs finished a solid 35th among WRs in total PPR points; 31st in points per game.

Daniel Jones shouldn't excite anyone, but he should at least mark an improvement over Anthony Richardson's portion of last season. And Jones is probably better for a shorter-range WR like Downs than Joe Flacco was in 2024.

Jones has proved friendly to slot types throughout his rocky career.

Next Best: Keon Coleman

Here's a more obvious "Upside Mode" candidate.

We've listed Coleman among our top Sleepers all offseason. His rave reviews from camp only strengthen that feeling. Let's just hope he continues to make it to us this deep in drafts.

Other options

• Michael Pittman Jr.
• Tyjae Spears
• Darnell Mooney

Round 12

Top Target: Tyjae Spears

Spears would have been an earlier target before his preseason high ankle sprain. There's time for him to work through that, though, and still present loads of upside.

A healthy Spears could challenge top-12 territory if Tony Pollard were to go down.

Next Best: Tank Bigsby

The alternating (and soft) buzz among Jaguars RBs has kept all their ADPs controlled. That keeps Bigsby (and his mates) as potential sleepers in the double-digit rounds.

We're betting someone -- and likely more than one guy -- delivers useful fantasy scoring among Jaguars RBs. New HC Liam Coen piloted last year's Bucs to the league's second-most RB PPR points.

Other options

• Austin Ekeler
• J.K. Dobbins

Round 13

Top Target: Zach Ertz

Why did the Draft War Room have us wait so long to draft a TE? Two key reasons:

1. The format. We've got a flex spot and a superflex spot in addition to the RB and WR starters. That increases the value of those two positions and lightens the importance of TE.
2. The options still available. And Ertz looks particularly attractive this late.

Ertz sits just 17th among TEs in ADP as of this writing. He finished last year 11th in both total PPR points and points per game. And he ranked ninth in expected points per game, so there was nothing fluky about it.

Sure, he might decline in a season that'll find him turning 35. But Washington brought him back at double last year's salary. The Commanders clearly still believe in him.

Next Best: Marquise Brown

Brown watched a shoulder injury wipe out basically all of his 2024 season. But Kansas City re-signed him, and Patrick Mahomes has called him a "special player."

Throw in an expected Rashee Rice suspension, and Brown's an easy late-round click. Though we'll need to watch the status of his ankle.

Other options

• Tank Bigsby
• J.K. Dobbins

Round 14

Top Target: Austin Ekeler

At this point, I won't argue against Ekeler at all.

Next Best: Marquise Brown

Although I'm still probably taking this guy over him.

Other options

• Romeo Doubs
• Josh Palmer

Rounds 15-18

Keep targeting upside wherever it makes sense for the roster you’ve built to this point. You’ll likely find options at RB and WR. And if low-level starting QBs such as any of the Giants, Colts, or Browns contenders remain available, snatch one up. All QB starters should be rostered by the end of your draft.

Otherwise, time to grab your kicker and defense.

Try to get a kicker in a good offense, and be ready to stream them during the season. Our Draft War Room rankings will help you get started. And the in-season kicker model our engineer Alex Korff built will keep helping throughout the year.

On defense, we have built Trust Factor into the Draft War Room this year. That boosts defenses with good early matchups and penalizes those with bad early matchups. Why? Because playing the matchups will give you the best results with fantasy defenses.

Superflex Guide: Pick 7, 8, or 9

Round 1

Top Targets: Joe Burrow

Any of these slots could change drastically depending on how many of the drafters before you don't go QB.

If all six take a passer, then both of these players are likely gone. In that case, Ja'Marr Chase probably leads your recommendations. And I'd take him over the next QB.

To be totally honest, I'd also take CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, or Puka Nacua over Bo Nix. I expect any of those WRs to give you a bigger advantage at that position than Nix will at QB, vs. what you'll be able to get there over the next couple of rounds.

Our imported ADP for the format does have Burrow reaching the seventh pick. He and Mahomes should be easy clicks anywhere in this range if they get to you. (That ADP also says you'll get another shot at Nix in Round 2 if you like him.)

Burrow sits closer in 3D Value to the top four QBs than he does to No. 6 Mahomes.

Next Best: Patrick Mahomes

But the K.C. quarterback still carries similar upside. We've simply gone longer without seeing it from him, primarily because his WRs haven't been awesome since Tyreek Hill left.

That was supposed to change last year, with:

• Rashee Rice having broken out late in 2023
• Xavier Worthy arriving in Round 1
• and Marquise Brown signed

But Brown hurt a shoulder in August, and Rice went down in Week 4.

Expect this year's version to improve. With everyone at full health, this could be Mahomes' best WR corps to date.

Other options

• Bo Nix
• CeeDee Lamb
• Justin Jefferson

Round 2

Top Targets: Bo Nix

I know I listed two QBs as the top Round 1 recommendations. But I gave myself Ja'Marr Chase at that spot in case you don't get any of the top six QBs reaching you.

If you do land your QB in the first, then this spot will be for the top available WR or McCaffrey. If you don't, then the Draft War Room wants you to get that QB now.

Nix finished eighth among fantasy QBs as a rookie, offering both passing and rushing production.

Next Best: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield scored the third-most fantasy points at the position last year. So we know the upside's there. We also know he's likely to fall from his 7.2% passing-TD rate, though. The question: how far?

Mayfield delivered two other seasons north of 5.0% in that category among his first three years. Only 11 QBs reached 5.0% last year.

Other options

• Justin Herbert
• Justin Fields
• Puka Nacua
• Christian McCaffrey

Round 3

Top Targets: Tee Higgins

This turn brings up an interesting potential issue ...

As I mentioned above, I drafted Ja'Marr Chase in Round 1. If that's how you start and these two top your Round 3 recommendations, I'd reach over them for a non-Bengal.

Pairing two WRs or a WR and RB from the same team inside the first three rounds is basically asking that offense to have a special season. That's a lot to ask.

Next Best: Chase Brown

However, if you drafted Burrow in Round 1 and a non-Chase WR in Round 2, then either of these Bengals makes for an OK target.

Cincinnati finished seventh or higher in scoring three of the past four years and top-9 in yards two of the past three seasons.

This will be a good offense, as long as Burrow stays healthy. So betting on him plus a pass catcher or his lead RB makes sense.

Other options

• Kyren Williams

Round 4

Top Targets: Alvin Kamara

RBs lead the board here, with Kamara the clear leader.

That's also where he finished in expected PPR points per game among RBs last season, thanks primarily to the league's most targets per game.

Kamara makes for a reliable RB1 on this team that arrived with one QB and two WRs.

Next Best: Kenneth Walker III

Walker will battle Kamara for top-recommendation honors at this turn in your draft, and either guy makes plenty of sense.

Walker finished 12th among RBs in PPR points per game last season and ranked top-7 in expected points per game.

New OC Klint Kubiak has already talked about Walker being at the center of the offensive plan.

Other options

• James Conner
• Chuba Hubbard

Round 5

Top Targets: Kenneth Walker III

Walker's ADP trails Kamara's as of this writing, so there's a chance he gets back to you in this round.

Next Best: James Conner

Conner or Chuba Hubbard makes sense as a fallback. But you can also feel free to lean WR at this turn if you prefer those options listed below.

Other options

• Chuba Hubbard
• Davante Adams
• D.J. Moore

Round 6

Top Targets: Trevor Lawrence

Unless all three of these listed QBs are gone, the Draft War Room wants you to target a QB2 here.

Lawrence and the Jags stunk last year, but he finished each of the previous two seasons among the top 13 QBs in fantasy points per game.

Jacksonville added upside in the offseason with new HC Liam Coen and No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter.

Next Best: Jordan Love

Love fell back from a QB9 fantasy finish in 2023 to QB21 in points per game last year. But his body and offensive scheme were working against him. When he did play, Love actually averaged more fantasy points per dropback in 2024 than in 2023.

A healthier Love plus a first-round rookie WR should mean more passing volume than last season. The 2024 Packers passed on just 48.8% of plays, third-lowest in the league and 6.5 percentage points short of the previous low under Matt LaFleur.

Other options

• J.J. McCarthy
• James Conner

Round 7

Top Targets: Jaylen Waddle

Either of the highlighted targets here brings you a still-young player with proven production and signals that his team believes in him.

For Waddle, that signal takes the form of a contract paying him $28.3 million in average annual salary. And the proven production? Here's how he ranked among PPR wideouts in his three seasons before last year:

• 15th
• 14th
• 22nd

Next Best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco stunk after returning from injury last year. So why should we think the Chiefs still trust him? Look at their offseason ...

The team added only Elijah Mitchell on a small, one-year deal (coming off a season lost to injury) and seventh-round rookie Brashard Smith. Either RB could help them, but that combo of moves doesn't suggest you're worried about your No. 1 RB.

Production? Pacheco finished 2023 as the No. 14 RB in PPR points per game. His workload ramped up over the second half, and that carried over into the beginning of 2025 (before his Week 2 leg fracture).

Other options

• D'Andre Swift
• George Pickens

Round 8

Top Targets: Tua Tagovailoa

We've covered starters at RB and WR, so the Draft War Room favors a third QB at this spot. You don't need to follow that, especially if you landed Burrow or Mahomes in Round 1 and then a QB2 you believe in.

Otherwise, though, QB is the most finite position here. That makes securing three starters a nice value move. RBs and WRs will remain available.

Tagovailoa probably doesn't look especially attractive after his latest concussion-shortened campaign. But he finished ninth among QBs the year before. And even last year found Tua posting top-10 scores in five of his 11 games.

Next Best: Bryce Young

Young rebounded from an early-season benching in 2024 to rank 17th among QBs in fantasy points per game over his final 10 games.

Add a new lead WR drafted eighth overall, and the upside case gets easier to believe. Jared highlighted Young as a superflex sleeper.

Other Options

• Matthew Stafford
• Cam Ward

Round 9

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

With starter spots filled at RB (two) and WR (three) but no reserves yet at either position, the Draft War Room is basically telling me to target what I want.

Samuel, Meyers, and Jaylen Warren all display at 60.0 points in 3D Value.

Samuel trails Meyers in baseline projection but beats him in our ceiling projections. That's fair. Meyers looks easier to project as a more traditional WR who didn't switch teams.

Samuel, though, lands with an OC who likes scheming the kind of short passes that can leverage his run-after-catch skills. And Jayden Daniels is probably the best QB Samuel has played with.

Next Best: Jakobi Meyers

Meyers, meanwhile, just goes quietly underrated annually.

Meyers finished last season 14th among WRs in expected PPR points per game; 23rd in actual points per game.

He sits just 40th at the position in ADP.

Other options

• Jaylen Warren
• Jauan Jennings
• Travis Etienne

Round 10

Top Targets: David Njoku

Welcome to Upside Mode.

Your Draft War Room automatically switched that on for this round, because we've crossed the halfway point of this 18-round draft. That mode means the value calculations now increase the emphasis on ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood.

The later you get into your draft, the more you want to chase attractive ceiling over worrying about downside. 

Njoku might not hit your top recommendation spot here, depending on the specific depth of your league's lineup settings. But he makes for a nice TE1 selection in this range either way.

Njoku proved a steady target (and stat) collector across multiple (poor) QB options over the past couple of years. Flacco at least offers more stability than passers such as Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Next Best: Khalil Shakir

We'll keep watching Shakir's return from his high ankle sprain. But the Bills have indicated they expect him to be ready for Week 1. If you don't need to use him that first week, all the better.

Shakir emerged as Buffalo's target leader in 2024. His upside lies in his chances of doing so again.

Other options

• Jauan Jennings
• Stefon Diggs

Round 11

Top Target: Stefon Diggs

This round features a couple of attractive targets for your fifth WR spot.

New England clearly paid Diggs ($23 million a year) to become their target leader, probably by a wide margin. His case got even better when he opened training camp with full clearance in his return from last year's right ACL tear.

Next Best: Josh Downs

Downs doesn't bring nearly the scoring history of Diggs, but he's trending up.

Even with the low pass rate and crap at QB last year, Downs finished a solid 35th among WRs in total PPR points; 31st in points per game.

The QB play almost has to be better this season, whether that's an improved Anthony Richardson or a reliably mediocre Daniel Jones.

Other options

• Michael Pittman Jr.
• Tyjae Spears
• Darnell Mooney
• Keon Coleman

Round 12

Top Targets: Dallas Goedert

If you didn't grab Njoku earlier, this becomes a TE opportunity.

Amid seven games lost to injury, Goedert still managed to rank 10th among TEs in PPR points per game. That marked his sixth straight season among the top 13.

Next Best: Tyjae Spears

Spears makes for an attractive selection at this stage, even with his preseason injury.

Other options

• Austin Ekeler
• Tank Bigsby

Round 13

Top Target: Tank Bigsby

Uncertainty in the Jacksonville backfield roles is pushing all Jaguars RBs down the board. But that means upside to any option in the double-digit rounds.

Liam Coen's arrival should open the competition for roles, and Bigsby outperformed Travis Etienne on the ground last season. Bigsby has also generated some buzz in training camp.

Next Best: Austin Ekeler

Ekeler leads the other RBs in this range by a wide margin in baseline projection. That makes up for his lackluster ceiling projection.

He lacks excitement but should retain the lead backfield receiving role in a good offense.

Other options

• J.K. Dobbins
• Rachaad White

Round 14

Top Targets: Marquise Brown

Tough to beat an upside Patrick Mahomes WR at this stage of your draft. Brown gains potential early-season appeal with Rashee Rice's expected suspension.

Next Best: Daniel Jones

Every starting QB should get drafted in your superflex league.

Don't be surprised if Jones goes earlier than this. But don't be afraid to snap him up if he remains on the board.

Other options

• Christian Kirk
• Romeo Doubs

Rounds 15-18

Keep targeting upside wherever it makes sense for the roster you’ve built to this point. You’ll likely find options at RB and WR. And if low-level starting QBs such as any of the Giants, Colts, or Browns contenders remain available, snatch one up. All QB starters should be rostered by the end of your draft.

Otherwise, time to grab your kicker and defense.

Try to get a kicker in a good offense, and be ready to stream them during the season. Our Draft War Room rankings will help you get started. And the in-season kicker model our engineer Alex Korff built will keep helping throughout the year.

On defense, we have built Trust Factor into the Draft War Room this year. That boosts defenses with good early matchups and penalizes those with bad early matchups. Why? Because playing the matchups will give you the best results with fantasy defenses.

Superflex Guide: Pick 10, 11, or 12

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Targets: Patrick Mahomes & Puka Nacua

If Mahomes reaches you anywhere in this range, jump on him. He might sit clearly behind Joe Burrow as No. 6 in our QB rankings, but we also know the K.C. passer sports the same kind of upside Burrow does.

That's been less obvious over the past two years, but Mahomes has suffered for a lack of surrounding WR talent. That should be fixed when Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown take the field together. That trio looks like the best corps of wideouts Mahomes has ever had.

Nacua might slip a little in drafts because of fantasy managers worried that Davante Adams' arrival will challenge his target count. But we'll comfortably bet on a 24-year-old who set the rookie record for receptions and then saw his usage increase as a sophomore, despite a season-opening knee injury that affected his playing time all year.

Next Best: CeeDee Lamb & Bo Nix

If Mahomes doesn't last, then start WR instead of QB. Lamb brings upside to the top of the position. That's not projection. It's where he finished in 2023, the last time Dak Prescott enjoyed a healthy season.

Nix makes sense as the next QB up for your second pick. Denver didn't make flashy enhancements to the pass-catching corps. But HC Sean Payton sounds pretty excited about TE Evan Engram, and third-round WR Pat Bryant at least adds competition.

Other options

• Saquon Barkley
• Malik Nabers
• Baker Mayfield
• Justin Fields

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: Chase Brown & Tyreek Hill

This pair of turns looks interesting.

We've arrived with a QB and a WR, so the Draft War Room favors leading with a RB and then grabbing your WR2 (for a three-WR setup). If we follow ADP and the DWR recommendations here, then Brown and Higgins actually emerge as the top duo. I'd rather not pair a RB and WR from the same team so early in my draft, though.

If you do, you're asking that offense to basically be awesome every week. Although Cincinnati sports one of the league's best offenses, that's a big ask for any unit.

So let's mix and match. And if you'd rather go Kamara over Brown and/or not bet on a Tyreek Hill bounce back, then there are plenty of options rated closely enough together that you can travel your favored path.

Play around with the Mock Draft Trainer ahead of your actual draft, to see which draft combos produce the best results (and to make sure you're ready for inevitable draft surprises).

Next Best: Alvin Kamara & Tee Higgins

Even if you've chosen to reach this turn without a QB, there's a chance you'll find the pair of Justins (and a couple other similarly rated passers) available.

Other options

• Garrett Wilson
• Justin Herbert
• Justin Fields
• Kenneth Walker III

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Target: James Conner & Dak Prescott

Here's how Conner has finished in PPR points per game across his four Arizona seasons:

• RB9
• RB9
• RB7
• RB12 (tied)

Argue against him if you want, but I'm not listening.

If you get here with one QB and land Prescott as your No. 2, you're in excellent shape at the position.

The Dallas QB has given us multiple top-8 fantasy seasons, so we don't even need to talk about what the ceiling could be. Adding George Pickens to CeeDee Lamb might provide the best WR duo Prescott's ever had. (Top contender: Amari Cooper and Lamb in 2020-21.)

Next Best: Chuba Hubbard & Jordan Love

Hubbard could lose receiving work to some combo of Rico Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne. The incumbent didn't show well in that area last year. But Carolina also extended him in November at more than $8 million a season. So the Panthers clearly plan to continue having Hubbard lead the backfield.

Love brings even sneakier upside than Prescott.

Last year's extreme run-heaviness in Green Bay makes it easy to forget that Love finished 2023 as fantasy's No. 9 QB, boosted by a second half that had him leading the position in scoring.

Even a seemingly down 2024 actually found Love generating more fantasy points per dropback than the season before.

Other options

• Davante Adams
• D.J. Moore
• Trevor Lawrence
• J.J. McCarthy

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle & Michael Penix Jr.

The Draft War Room favors filling your third WR slot with the first pick here. You might feel wary of Waddle for that role after last season, but his previous three years featured rankings of 15th, 14th, and 22nd in PPR points per game.

Your second pick? Nabbing that third QB looks like a good idea. It's less about the specific value of Penix, Ward, or the other QBs listed below. It's more about how you can't expect starters to remain on the board into your Round 9 turn.

You don't need to secure three NFL starters for your superflex roster, but it sure sets you up nicely if you do.

Practice with the Mock Draft Trainer to see exactly when you prefer to target QBs.

Next Best: Isiah Pacheco & Cam Ward

Pacheco's a bounce-back candidate like Waddle. Unlike Waddle, it's easier to point out what went wrong last season: injury.

Pacheco stunk after returning from his Week 2 leg fracture. HC Andy Reid indicated after the season that Pacheco returned earlier than most players would have, and that lack of readiness showed.

Why bet on him now? K.C. added only Elijah Mitchell (off a full season lost to injury) and a seventh-round pick at RB. That pretty clearly indicates that the Chiefs are counting on Pacheco to retake the backfield lead.

Ward brings the obvious question of being an unproven rookie. And a lackluster Tennessee WR depth chart doesn't boost his outlook. But 27.9 rushing yards per game across his three FBS seasons raises the floor and ceiling.

That'd be 474 rushing yards over a 17-game season, which would have ranked eighth among QBs last year.

Other options

• D'Andre Swift
• Aaron Jones
• Chris Olave
• Bryce Young
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Jordan Addison

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Target: Deebo Samuel/Jakobi Meyers & Jaylen Warren

Samuel and Meyers arrive at this turn tied in 3D Value on my board. Both make sense, but they're pretty different flavors.

Meyers is a perennially underrated low WR2 to high WR3. He's not going to excite you, but he's a strong bet for helpful weekly target shares.

Samuel's more unpredictable, especially after joining a new team. But OC Kliff Kingsbury brings a history of scheming up the kind of short passes that can leverage Samuel's run-after-catch ability. And Jayden Daniels is probably the best QB Samuel has played with. (Sorry, Brock Purdy.)

Feel free to choose your favorite between them. Follow that with an upside RB, and you're in good shape heading into the upside rounds.

Warren should at least maintain his backfield receiving lead -- and likely grow that gap vs. where it settled last year. There's also room for him to claim more rushing work as Pittsburgh swaps from Najee Harris to third-round rookie Kaleb Johnson.

Next Best: David Njoku & Jordan Mason

If you get here without a TE, then Njoku makes for a fine target. He could easily lead this year's Browns in targets per game and has stayed productive across varying shaky QB scenarios.

Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell has called Mason a focal point of their offseason plan and "1B" to Aaron Jones' 1A.

Other options

• Jauan Jennings
• Jayden Reed
• Khalil Shakir
• Geno Smith
• Sam Darnold

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Target: Michael Pittman Jr. & Tyjae Spears

Josh Downs is the more exciting Colts WR after outperforming Pittman last year. But the shaky QB situation is pushing both far enough in drafts to make either an upside bet.

Keep in mind that Pittman played through a back injury for nearly all of last season, in addition to dealing with the injury that Anthony Richardson's play inflicted on the entire offense.

Spears brings the fun at this turn. We're hoping he siphons enough work to be usable here and there even when Tony Pollard's healthy. But the upside really comes into play if Pollard goes down.

By the way, we've entered Upside Mode as soon as you pass the halfway point in your draft. That adds emphasis to the ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood in calculating pick recommendations.

You can toggle it off at any point if you'd rather build a boring, unimaginative roster.

Next Best: Darnell Mooney & Austin Ekeler

Mooney wound up just 38th in PPR points per game last year but was scoring as a top-16 WR earlier in the year.

Bet on him landing closer to the lower level, but that range at least displays his week-to-week upside.

Ekeler's the PPR floor play at RB here. If you're looking for a guy who'll get 3+ targets a week and 9-10 total touches for assured fill-in points, he's fine. If you're seeking real upside, I'd target someone else.

If you're not comfortable pushing TE off any longer, then Jake Ferguson and Dallas Goedert (listed below) make sense at this turn. And ADP says you shouldn't expect them to make it back to you.

Other Options

• Keon Coleman
• Rashid Shaheed
• Marquise Brown
• Jordan Mason
• Jake Ferguson
• Dallas Goedert

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Target: Zach Ertz & Austin Ekeler

The Draft War Room actually puts Ekeler just ahead of Ertz at this turn for me, but I'd rather secure my TE over a low-ceiling RB5.

Ertz finished last season 11th among TEs in PPR points per game and ninth in expected points per game. And then Washington doubled his salary on a new one-year deal.

Next Best: Chig Okonkwo & Marquise Brown

If Ertz isn't around, Okonkwo and Hunter Henry make fine options for your late TE answer.

Okonkwo saw his playing time and target share elevated late last season. A still-weak WR depth chart could help roll that over into 2025, though the larger role still didn't support top-12 scoring for Okonkwo.

If he's your first TE, then strongly consider adding a second to platoon or provide insurance.

Brown missed basically all of last season after an August shoulder injury. But the Chiefs clearly still like him or they wouldn't have signed him for the second straight offseason. Patrick Mahomes has specifically praised Brown's ability.

Other options

• J.K. Dobbins
• Hunter Henry
• Tank Bigsby
• Daniel Jones
• Jaxson Dart
• Christian Kirk

Rounds 15-18

Keep targeting upside wherever it makes sense for the roster you’ve built to this point. You’ll likely find options at RB and WR. And if low-level starting QBs such as Darnold or Gardner Minshew remain available, snatch one up. All QB starters should be rostered by the end of your draft.

Otherwise, time to grab your kicker and defense.

Try to get a kicker in a good offense, and be ready to stream them during the season. Our Draft War Room rankings will help you get started. And the in-season kicker model our engineer Alex Korff built will keep helping throughout the year.

On defense, we have built Trust Factor into the Draft War Room this year. That boosts defenses with good early matchups and penalizes those with bad early matchups. Why? Because playing the matchups will give you the best results with fantasy defenses.

Time to Win YOUR Superflex Draft

You've read through a potential plan for your superflex draft. But you and I both know your draft isn't likely to go according to plan.

That's why we built the Draft War Room, which will sync directly with your league and dynamically update your player recommendations as you draft.

So you're ready for anything.

Get your Draft War Room ready now.

And you can find more superflex strategy in the video below ...