Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Overview

Healthy 2025 Delivered Healthy Production

You’ve probably heard that McCaffrey led all RBs in scoring last year -- 2.6 points per game ahead of his nearest PPR competitor (Bijan Robinson), depending on your format. So let’s refresh on his past few years …

• 2022: 17 games split between Carolina (six) and San Francisco (11); RB2 in PPR points per game (behind Austin Ekeler)
• 2023: 16 games with the 49ers; 3.3 points per game ahead of No. 2 (Kyren Williams), and another 3.4 PPG ahead of No. 3
• 2024: just four games, thanks to issues with both Achilles’ tendons; the fantasy world wept
• 2025: 17 games; loads of points.

McCaffrey has topped 100 targets two of his past three healthy seasons. The other one merely found him rushing for a career-high 5.4 yards per rush and setting a career highs with 7 TD catches and 21 total TDs.

He matched that TD-catch high last season, drew the second-most targets of his career, cracked 9.0 yards per catch for the second straight season and third time in his career, and reached 300 carries in a season for the first time.

But There Might Be One Thing to Worry About

McCaffrey’s high-scoring, high-volume, healthy, 2025 made it easy to overlook a decline in rushing efficiency.

His 3.9 yards per rush marked his lowest average since a three-game 2020. It nearly matched the 4.0 of his four-game 2024, which we could have otherwise dismissed because of the calf issues.

McCaffrey also posted his lowest rush yards over expected per attempt since NFL Next Gen Stats started tracking. His minus-0.54 mark ranked fifth-worst among 51 qualifiers, ahead of only:

• Bucky Irving
• Michael Carter
• Alvin Kamara
• R.J. Harvey

That marked a particularly steep drop from McCaffrey’s 1.34 of 2023. Pro Football Focus also credited him with his lowest rushing grade since his 2017 rookie season and the worst breakaway percentage (share of yards gained on designed ryan that went 15+ yards) of his career. McCaffrey’s 16.7% in that category ranked 42nd among 51 RBs who carried at least 90 times last year. Here’s the crew that trailed him:

• Rachaad White
• Alvin Kamara
• Bucky Irving
• Michael Carter
• Devin Singletary
• Kareem Hunt
• Isiah Pacheco
• Emanuel Wilson
• Chuba Hubbard

Brian Robinson Jr. -- San Francisco’s No. 2 RB in 2025 -- sat one spot ahead of McCaffrey at 16.8%.

CMC tied for fourth-best in that category in 2023, at 34.5%.

To be fair, the cast surrounding McCaffrey probably helped his workload volume while hindering his efficiency. A struggling Niners pass-catching corps helped afford him the league’s highest RB target share (21.3%) on top of the league’s fourth-largest carry share (64.7%).

But McCaffrey’s yards before contact per attempt fell from a career-high 3.1 in 2023 to just 2.3 last season. That ranked 25th among qualifiers and below the league average of 2.5. McCaffrey’s endured just two lower marks among his eight seasons, and they came in a three-game 2020 and seven-game 2021, both with the Panthers.

That points to a lack of blocking support and obviously makes it tougher to gain yards at an efficient clip.

He Didn’t Go Totally Injury Free

McCaffrey made it into every game for the 49ers last season, but that makes it easy to forget that he carried a “questionable” tag into Week 1 with a calf strain that made us all hold our breath.

CMC added a back issue in Week 15 and shoulder ding in the playoff loss to Seattle but didn’t lose time to either.

None of those cases carries specific relevance to 2026, but we’ll need to keep an eye out for any reports of calf issues in particular leading up to the season.

2026 Outlook Leads with One Key Question

Here’s the thing: We can dig as deep or shallow as we want into McCaffrey’s injury history, his potentially waning efficiency, San Francisco’s changes around him, and even the history of aging RBs. But the evaluation on him is simpler than all that:

If McCaffrey stays healthy, he’ll almost certainly keep getting plenty of work to support high-end fantasy finishes throughout the season. The biggest factor raising that floor is the receiving, which he reminded everyone about last season.

What if CMC gets hurt? Well, then he’s not gonna help your team. But that’s also true of every other player you’re considering in the first round.

Still, let’s look at what’s different around him.

49ers Probably Didn’t Upgrade RB2

San Francisco let Brian Robinson Jr. walk in free agency. Then they (surprisingly) spent a third-round pick on Indiana RB Kaelon Black.

He’ll turn 25 in the middle of his rookie season, never reached 200 touches in a college season, and didn’t lead last year’s Hoosiers backfield in carries or catches. Black’s also generally expected to trail 2025 fifth-round pick Jordan James in the battle for this year’s No. 2 job.

James carries more intrigue than Black but didn’t garner a touch in his rookie campaign thanks to injury. So he’s unproven at best.

The rest of the backfield ultimately presents no case for siphoning work from a healthy McCaffrey.

Offense Should Improve Around Him

Last year’s Niners watched only a hobbled Jauan Jennings and 11-game George Kittle join McCaffrey north of 53 targets for the season. That marked a weaker pass-catching corps than in McCaffrey’s previous time with the team.

So this year’s version added WR Mike Evans and WR Christian Kirk in free agency, as well as WR De’Zhaun Stribling in the draft. It also should get a healthier version of Ricky Pearsall, who lost eight games to a PCL sprain.

It should also get more QB Brock Purdy, who also missed eight games thanks to turf toe.

A replenished offense should create a better environment for yardage efficiency and scoring chances.

The O-line might continue to offer limited support, however. The Niners return almost entirely the same crew from last year, adding only low-level free-agent G Robert Jones and fourth-round rookie Carver Willis.