Chuba Hubbard Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Hubbard carried 250 times for 1,195 yards and 10 TDs across 15 games last year. His 79.7 rushing yards per game ranked seventh league-wide.

Hubbard added another 171 yards and one TDs on 43 receptions.

He finished 15th among RBs in total PPR points and 13th in points per game.

Hubbard spent the first two weeks of the season in a near-even timeshare with RB Miles Sanders. He got workhorse usage over his final 13 games, though. Hubbard ranked eighth in PPR points per game over that stretch.

Usage & Role

Hubbard played 56% of Carolina’s offensive snaps and totaled 16 carries on a 42.1% share over the first two games of the season.

From Week 3 through 16, he:

• Played 80% of the offensive snaps
• Averaged 18.0 carries per game
• Handled 71.1% of Panthers carries
• Averaged 3.8 targets per game
• Drew 11.5% of Panthers targets

Hubbard ranked third among RBs in expected PPR points per game over that stretch, behind only Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon.

Efficiency Metrics

Hubbard was excellent on the ground last year, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Among 47 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 4th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 7th in yards after contact per attempt
• 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 9th in Pro Football Focus rush grade

Hubbard was much less efficient in the passing game. He caught 79.6% of his targets but somehow averaged just 4.0 yards per catch. That was the fifth-lowest mark among 1,209 RB seasons of 20+ catches since 2000.

Hubbard ranked 36th among 37 qualifying RBs in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

Hubbard was a bright spot in a tough season for the Panthers. They finished 29th in total yards and 23rd in points. It was a slow-paced attack, ranking 25th in neutral pace and 31st in plays per game.

Carolina leaned toward the run, finishing 19th in pass rate over expected and 22nd in neutral pass rate. But negative game scripts boosted them to 11th in overall pass rate.

The team notably went pass-heavier in the red zone, though, ranking:

• 4th in red-zone pass rate
• 5th in red-zone pass rate over expected

Despite all that, Hubbard ranked second league-wide with 21 carries inside the five-yard line.

Historical Production & Trends

Hubbard’s 16.4 PPR points per game last year were easily a career high. He averaged 8.2 as a rookie in 2021 and sunk to 6.0 in year two.

Hubbard won the lead role in 2023 and delivered 10.7 PPR points per game — good for 36th among RBs.

His yards per carry has yo-yoed from 3.6 to 4.9 to 3.8 to 4.8 over the last four years. But he’s been steadier in terms of Pro Football Focus rushing grade since a rough rookie season. His ranks the last three years:

• 2022 - 17th out of 48
• 2023 - 14th out of 49
• 2024 - 9th out of 47

Injury History

Hubbard missed two games in 2022 with an ankle injury and the final two games of last year with calf and knee injuries.

He also missed the final four games of his final college season with a high-ankle sprain.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The depth chart behind Hubbard looks different heading into 2025 than it did last year.

RB Miles Sanders left in free agency, while RB Jonathon Brooks will miss the entire season after tearing the same ACL for the second time in a little over a year in December.

Carolina will replace those guys with free-agent Rico Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne.

Dowdle is coming off a 1,079-yard season for the Cowboys. He averaged 3.28 yards after contact per carry and earned a 74.4 Pro Football Focus rushing grade. Strong marks — but he trailed Hubbard in both. Dowdle got just $2.75 million on a one-year deal, suggesting that he’s likely viewed as depth, rather than a big part of the backfield.

Etienne was added in Round 4 of this spring’s draft. Travis’ brother averaged 5.6 yards per carry across three college seasons but never led a backfield in carries.

Hubbard is a good bet to hang on to lead ball-carrying duties this season. But he could lose passing-down work to Dowdle and/or Etienne, especially considering how inefficient Hubbard was as a receiver last year.

Supporting Cast

QB Bryce Young returns for year three after a strong second half to last season. He’ll be helped by the addition of first-round rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan. This offense is a candidate to take a significant leap forward in 2025, which would bode well for Hubbard’s fantasy value.

The Panthers also return all five starters from last year’s offensive line, which ranked:

• 4th in adjusted line yards
• 8th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• 10th in ESPN run block win rate

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik return for their second season with the Panthers. Year one was underwhelming, but they had a lot working against them.

Canales was a hot candidate in the 2024 coaching cycle after helping to revive QB Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay.

He’s deployed balanced offenses across the past two seasons. The 2023 Bucs ranked 13th with a 58.9% pass rate, and last year’s Panthers finished ninth at 58.7%.

We currently project the 2025 Panthers for a 58.5% pass rate.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Hubbard will play this season at 26 years old. While that’s a little past prime for RBs, our aging-curve research shows that we can still expect 90-96% of peak production from Hubbard.