DeVonta Smith Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Four TDs Flattened the Season

Smith somewhat quietly finished 18th among WRs in total PPR points last season. It felt quieter because a career-low 4 TDs left him just WR30 in PPR points per game.

Smith’s 11.9 points per game marked a tumble of …

• 3.4 from his his 2024 scoring average
• 2.4 vs. 2023
• And 3.1 vs. 2022

He did, at least, beat the 10.9 points per game of his rookie year.

Smith reached the top 12 in WR scoring just three times among 17 appearances. He barely played in a Week 18 game that found the Eagles resting starters, and yet his WR32 finish that week (3 catches, 52 yards) marked his eighth-best weekly ranking of the year.

He landed among the top 24 receivers seven times.

The previous season found Smith logging eight top-25 finishes among just 13 outings and matching last year’s three top-12s. All three of those landed him inside the top 7.

No Issue with Smith's Role

There wasn’t anything wrong with Smith’s usage. His 22.7% target share ranked 20th in the league, 19th among wideouts. He ran a route on 86.4% of Eagles pass plays, 14th-highest in the league.

Smith’s target share lined up with his career numbers, including the 2021 rookie season that has been his only year to date without A.J. Brown:

• 2021: 20.4%
• 2022: 24.8%
• 2023: 20.9%
• 2024: 25.0%
• 2025: 22.7%

Interestingly, Smith drew 26.0% of Eagles targets through Week 8, which ranked 11th among WRs and edged Brown. After the bye, however, Brown climbed to 27.4% (sixth among WRs), while Smith dipped to 22.7% (19th).

Smith increased his air-yards share slightly for the second straight season, but it still stayed within the range of his previous three years. If any category best shows Brown's impact, it's this one.

• 2021: 41.4%
• 2022: 33.1%
• 2023: 31.7%
• 2024: 32.5%
• 2025: 33.5%

Smith found meager receiving talent around him with those 2021 Eagles. He led No. 2 Dallas Goedert by 28 targets (while playing two more games than the TE), with Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, and then two RBs following them.

It’s easy to see why Smith dominated Philly air yards that season, and his share ranked 14th among WRs despite a target share that ranked just 26th. Bet on Smith reclaiming that lead with Brown gone.

The Offense Dragged Everyone Down

The biggest problem for everyone was the offense. The Eagles fell to 24th in total yards after ranking 14th, third, eighth, and eighth through HC Nick Sirianni’s first four seasons. They also ranked just 19th in scoring after finishes of 12th, third, seventh, and seventh.

Philly threw the ball a bit more than in 2024 but still ranked just 24th in the league in attempts and 23rd in passing yards, so it remained a lackluster environment for receiving production.

And really, the offense just wasn’t working. The Eagles finished 17th in total offensive DVOA, 17th in expected points added per play, and 19th in EPA per dropback.

That followed the team losing OC Kellen Moore to the Saints’ head-coaching job and replacing him with Kevin Patullo. The replacement had been with Sirianni for seven years, dating back to their time on Frank Reich’s Colts staff, and Patullo had spent the past four seasons as Philly’s pass-game coordinator.

So his promotion made sense, but it clearly didn’t work.

Injury History & Durability

Smith has stayed remarkably healthy through five seasons, especially for such a spindly player by NFL standards. He has lost no games to injury outside of 2024, when a concussion cost him one early contest and a hamstring injury claimed two others late in the year.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

This Is Smith’s First Real WR1 Shot

Smith’s headed for a setup we really haven’t seen for him before.

He got his first season without A.J. Brown, but he was a rookie. He had a nice year, but Smith has obviously developed since then. The four years since, however, have provided only three regular-season games that didn’t include Brown.

Smith racked up a 33% target share across those contests -- two in 2024 and one last year -- drawing 9+ targets in each and tallying at least 6 catches in all three.

But Brown’s departure followed the Eagles trading up to draft WR Makai Lemon 20th overall. That draft capital obviously doesn’t guarantee that Lemon will be good, but it probably means he’s better -- and will garner more targets -- than the WRs Smith contended with back in 2021.

That said, Smith should see No. 1 WR status for the first time since that debut campaign. And any target-share increase can help Smith leverage his high-level efficiency.

His 69.5% catch rate ranks 15th among 89 WRs who have seen at least 200 targets since Smith entered the league in 2021. Smith also ranks 17th in yards per target (9.1) among that group. Only seven of the players ahead of him in that category have averaged more receiving yards per game over that span.

No One Here Challenges Him

In addition to Lemon, the Eagles return TE Dallas Goedert and added WR Dontayvion Wicks via trade and WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency. There’s no challenge from that group. Goedert has trailed Smith in targets and catches in all five of their shared seasons.

QB Jalen Hurts remains, which might seem like a negative to some observers. But despite loads of negative press, Hurts’ passing metrics didn’t look meaningfully different last year vs. the rest of his starting run. At the very least, Hurts doesn’t damage Smith’s outlook vs. anyone who could have replaced him this offseason.

The whole Philly offense would benefit from a healthier O-line after RT Lane Johnson, C Cam Jurgens, and LG Landon Dickerson all lost some time to injury last year.

The Fix Starts With Competence

The biggest change needed vs. 2025, however, is simply better offensive performance. The on-field product appeared to display significant issues in scheme design and play calling, and Philly replaced Patullo after the season.

New OC Sean Mannion has generated some excitement among players with his scheme, which is expected to include more play-action passing. But he’s a first-time play caller who spent just two years on Green Bay’s coaching staff before landing this gig.

Moving on from Patullo should be good, but we won’t know until the season about Mannion’s true influence.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is the Dream Template

Smith might be the most insulated among fantasy-relevant Eagles to any of the team’s lingering questions or risk factors.

A.J. Brown’s departure all but guarantees Smith will lead the team in targets. The only question is by how much. And even if the run game and overall offense don’t rebound significantly, more trailing game scripts would likely boost passing volume. And that would almost necessarily help the team’s lead receiver.

Smith hit a 25% target share in 2024 (adjusted for games missed) and finished that season 17th in PPR points per game. He hit 24.8% in 2022 and finished 15th. Each of those campaigns found him trailing Brown in that category.

Smith’s capable of landing inside WR1 territory for fantasy even without a truly dominant target share. But Brown’s departure vacates a role that placed him top-11 among WRs in target share (adjusted for games missed) each of his four years with the team:

• 2022: 25.4% (11th)
• 2023: 27.4% (eighth)
• 2024: 31.1% (second)
• 2025: 27.5% (ninth)

Brown turned those shares into PPR points-per-game finishes of 13th, eighth, 13th, and 12th, all while competing with Smith for targets. It's fair to assume Lemon won't immediately be as good as Smith or Brown, which would boost Smith's chances of maxing out his 2026 target share.

Jimmy Kempski of Philly Voice wrote in April that “there are some within the Eagles’ organization who believe that if Brown were no longer with the team, that Smith can have a similar jump in production that Jaxon Smith-Njigba had in Seattle once DK Metcalf was out of the way.”

If career-best target share meets with proven high-level efficiency and even modest offensive rebound for the team, Smith’s ceiling could climb into the position’s top 6.

WR11 Already Prices In the Leap

Smith’s durability, efficiency, and consistent role in Philly’s concentrated pass distribution give him a pretty high floor.

The downside case would find his draft price climbing higher than his target share. It’s possible Smith doesn’t exceed his current career high of 25% in that category. Just like in his rookie season, he could lead the Eagles in that category without drawing a truly dominant share.

He also hasn’t been a huge TD scorer through five seasons, reaching the end zone on a somewhat modest 8% of his receptions. And if Philly’s offense finds more struggles in spite of the OC switch, then scoring opportunities could prove a little scarce.

Still, a healthy Smith should be a pretty good bet for top-20 level fantasy scoring.