J.J. McCarthy Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Usage & Role

McCarthy enters 2025 with zero live-game reps but will now be asked to step in as the full-time starter from Week 1.

HC Kevin O’Connell’s offenses have ranked in the top six of passing yards every season since 2022 when he took over. Despite McCarthy’s lack of NFL experience, he will be asked to lead the pass-first offense.

His play style and college profile suggest he’ll be used both as a pocket passer and a mover outside the structure of the play.

Efficiency Metrics

With no 2024 NFL stats, McCarthy’s efficiency remains purely speculative.

In college, McCarthy averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt for his career, with more than four times as many TDs (49) as INTs (11). He also ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus passing grade in his final season among 178 FBS QBs who dropped back at least 100 times.

He also adds some mobility, rushing for 508 yards and five TDs over his final two college seasons.

Offensive Context

The Vikings have consistently ranked top-6 in pass yards and top-5 in pass TDs in each of the past three seasons under Kevin O’Connell.

Even with a slight dip in 2024 pass rate (56.6%, 13th), Minnesota still ranked 2nd in expected passing TDs (36.5).

This system is built for high-volume QB production — especially with elite weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson in place.

Sam Darnold had the third-longest average time to throw in 2024 (3.08 seconds), signaling a strong pass-blocking offensive line that retained its OTs in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.

Injury History

McCarthy missed his rookie season due to an August meniscus tear.

He underwent surgery immediately following the injury but had swelling during the recovery process. This required another surgery in November.

He is expected to be fully recovered for the 2025 season.

His only documented college injury is an ankle sprain in 2023. He played through that injury.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

McCarthy is locked in as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.

The Vikings traded for QB Sam Howell during the 2025 NFL Draft to be McCarthy’s backup. Journeyman QB Brett Rypien also joined the Vikings last season, his sixth team in his seven-year career.

Minnesota remains fully committed to developing McCarthy as the franchise QB.

Supporting Cast

WR Justin Jefferson returns for his sixth season with the Vikings. He’s been an All Pro in four of his five seasons, including with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold at QB.

WR Jordan Addison showed consistency in his first two NFL seasons with at least 875 receiving yards and nine TDs in each. His 13.4-yard average target depth in 2024 ranked 16th among WRs with at least 50 targets, giving McCarthy a solid downfield threat.

TE T.J. Hockenson should be fully recovered from his 2023 ACL tear and ready to contribute more in 2025.

The Vikings also added RB Jordan Mason via trade, creating a competent RB duo in Mason and Aaron Jones.

The Vikings’ pass blocking ranked 2nd in the NFL (70%) in 2024 and they return OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Additions on the interior include Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and first-round pick Donovan Jackson.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Kevin O’Connell’s system has consistently leaned pass. In 2022 and 2023, the Vikings boasted a pass rate over 63% and a neutral pass rate of over 61% with Kirk Cousins at the helm

That dipped in 2024 with Sam Darnold taking over. The Vikings' pass rate dropped to 56.6% overall, with a neutral pass rate of 58.3%. They ranked 16th in the NFL in pass rate.

Despite the drop, the Vikings still ranked sixth in pass yards and fifth in pass TDs in 2024.

The offense will likely adjust based on McCarthy’s development, but the Vikings should still remain near the top half of the league in passing.