Luther Burden III Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

College Production

In his final season at Missouri, Burden had a huge 2023 sophomore season at Missouri, racking up 86 catches for 1,212 yards and nine TDs across 12 games.

He accounted for 35% of his team’s receiving yards and 39% of the TDs while averaging a big 3.29 yards per route.

Burden’s raw production tanked in 2024, though. He mustered just 676 yards and six scores on 61 catches. He averaged 2.32 yards per route and accounted for only 25% of Missouri’s receiving yards (although he did score half the team’s receiving TDs).

Usage & Role

Burden lined up primarily in the slot but showed capability outside, commanding a 19.9% target share on a strong 37.7% route rate.

He had a 9.1-yard average depth of target, indicating a heavy role in intermediate areas with significant yards-after-catch upside.

His 50% market share of receiving TDs ranked 2nd among Combine WRs.

Efficiency Metrics

Burden showcased solid advanced metrics in 2024 despite a dip in production from 2023:

• 2.32 yards per route
• 1.8 yards per team pass attempt
• 80.2 PFF receiving grade
• 37.7% Dominator Rating
• 50.0% share of receiving TDs (2nd highest among Combine WRs)

His contested target rate (16.7%) was middle of the pack among Combine WRs, but his game thrives more on separation and YAC than physicality at the catch point.

Injury History

Burden played 38 games over three college seasons and avoided significant injuries, entering the NFL healthy.

He left Missouri’s game against UMass this past season with a shoulder injury, but did not miss any time.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Burden begins his rookie season behind D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze on the depth chart, which likely limits him to a slot role.

The Bears also took TE Colston Loveland in the first round and bring back TE Cole Kmet.

HC Ben Johnson’s offense has also often utilized the RB as a pass catcher. He reunites with D’Andre Swift, who had a 14.4% target share with Johnson in 2022.

Burden was handpicked by new HC Ben Johnson, and his versatility and efficiency could quickly earn him snaps, especially on third downs and schemed touches.

If he plays the slot role, similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown with Johnson on the Lions, there is plenty of target upside despite the multitude of weapons.

Supporting Cast

QB Caleb Williams enters his second season and showed some flashes of the elite NFL prospect he was hyped as.

The Bears return their two starting OTs in Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, but remade the interior of the OL with three new starters in Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Ben Johnson’s offense in Detroit ranked top-5 in points three years straight and maintained a balanced pass rate around 55%.

His creative passing concepts and rhythm-based scheme are a perfect fit for Burden’s versatility.