Nick Chubb - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Chubb’s rebuilt knee makes him a high-risk fantasy prospect for 2024. His career says the potential reward is high as well, but we really can’t know yet what the reasonable upside is. There should be some more clarity by August drafts. But Chubb will be a risk-reward play in any format at any stage. Make sure you don’t chase too early.

What We Learned Last Year

• Knees don’t bend that way.
• Unfortunately, Chubb’s nasty injury early in Week 2 rendered the season otherwise meaningless for assessing him or his place in the offense.
• Chubb tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee, requiring separate surgeries to repair each. He also needed repairs to the meniscus and medial capsule.
• And the injuries hit the same knee in which he tore the ACL back in college.

What to Expect in 2024

• That’s impossible to know … perhaps until after the season starts (and maybe not even then).
• “I like where I am. I’m where I need to be.” That’s what Chubb said in early June about his rehab progress. He also gave no timeline for his expected return.
• We’ll see whether Chubb’s ready for the start of training camp and then what his workout schedule looks like once there. And we’ll obviously keep watch for status/progress updates throughout the summer.
• Chubb and the Browns agreed to a contract restructure early in the offseason that lowered Chubb’s salary for the coming season. It was a move that made sense for both. Chubb maintains some guaranteed money with the only franchise he’s known instead of testing the market on an uncertain knee. The Browns retain a popular player at a less-risky cost. It’s tough to read too much into the move beyond that.
• Cleveland made only lower-level additions at RB, signing D’Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines. Both players came cheaply, and Hines likely looked most attractive for his return-game potential.
• Jerome Ford returns after getting the biggest share of the backfield work in Chubb’s absence last season. Kareem Hunt does not.
• Cleveland changed OCs, hiring Ken Dorsey a few months after the Bills fired him. Dorsey’s Bills ranked among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. Perhaps his arrival and the trade for WR Jerry Jeudy signal a passing-volume increase for the Browns.