Sam Darnold Fantasy Overview

The Big-Play TDs Hid the Volatility

Darnold was one of only 11 QBs to start all 17 games last season, and that durability drove his QB13 finish. His production was solid, not spectacular.

• 4,048 passing yards (fifth)
• 25 TDs (tied for ninth)
• 2.5% INT rate (29th)

Even in a low-volume attack, Darnold ranked eighth at 228.1 passing yards per game. Seattle finished 29th in attempts, 24th in neutral pass rate, and second in net yards per attempt (7.6).

Seattle built its offense around the run and downfield play-action shots, and Darnold ranked eighth with 134 play-action attempts.

The formula worked for Seattle, but it did not make Darnold a reliable weekly fantasy option. He posted QB1 numbers just six times and finished outside the top 20 in eight of his 17 starts.

Eight of Darnold’s 25 TD passes came from 20+ yards out, tied for eighth-most in the league. That big-play ability kept him on the weekly streaming radar, even if he was volatile week to week.

Fewer Attempts, Same Deep-Ball Bite

Seattle's run-first offense cut Darnold from 545 pass attempts in 2024 (eighth) to 477 in 2025 (15th). The lower volume cost him passing yards and TDs, but he still pushed the ball downfield effectively.

On passes of 20+ yards, Darnold ranked:

• first in completion rate (58.8%)
• third in PFF passing grade (97.6)
• fourth in passing yards (1,017)

The Scheme Changed His Ceiling

Among 29 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Darnold ranked:

• second in yards per attempt (8.5)
• seventh in completion rate (67.7%)
• seventh in PFF passing grade (80.2)

Darnold added efficiency in Seattle but lost volume, which chipped away at his passing totals. Seattle's 26th-ranked pace and 23rd-ranked neutral pass rate explain much of the dropoff.

OC Klint Kubiak built that offense before leaving for the Raiders' HC job, and Mike Macdonald replaced him with Brian Fleury, who hails from the same San Francisco offense in which Kubiak served as 2023 pass-game coordinator. (Kubiak spent 2024 as Saints OC before his year in Seattle.)

Seattle’s Run Game Stole the TDs

Last year’s Seahawks ranked third in rushing attempts (507), ninth in rushing TDs (19), and 31st in red-zone pass rate, all of which cut into Darnold’s TD chances.

Having Jaxon Smith-Njigba helped the QB take advantage of the opportunities he did get, though. JSN led the NFL with a 33.9% target share, averaged a strong 15.1 yards per catch and caught 10 of Darnold’s 25 scoring tosses.

Availability Keeps Him in QB2 Mix

Darnold played all 17 games each of the past two years, one of only six QBs to do so.

That durability matters more in superflex than 1-QB. A healthy QB2 who plays every week has real value.

His last major injury was a high-ankle sprain in the 2022 preseason that kept him on IR until November.

Shaheed Brings Splash Plays. Kupp Brings Questions.

Seattle returns its pass-catching group.

Smith-Njigba led the league with 1,793 receiving yards and ranked third with 119 grabs, but the depth behind him remains thin.

The Seahawks re-signed WR Rashid Shaheed to a three-year deal after acquiring him in November. He drew just a 10% target share, but his team-leading 15.8-yard average depth of target fits Darnold's deep-ball success from 2025.

After Shaheed arrived, Cooper Kupp ranked second on the team with a 16% target share, down slightly from the 17% he accumulated in the first nine weeks.

Kupp has also missed at least one game in each of his last four seasons.

Seattle used two-TE personnel 29.9% of the time, the league's eighth-highest rate, but A.J. Barner was the only fantasy-relevant option. He led Seattle's TEs with a 15% target share and finished as TE14 across formats.

Seattle's offensive line allowed the sixth-fewest sacks (27) and improved from 25th in 2024 to 20th in PFF's pass-blocking grades. ESPN also ranked the Seahawks 12th in pass-block win rate and adjusted sack rate.

The line helped maintain Darnold’s efficiency.

New OC, Familiar Blueprint

Fleury replaces Kubiak as Seattle's OC after seven seasons in San Francisco. He coached 49ers TEs the past four seasons, adding run-game coordinator to his job title for 2025.

Those 49ers ranked:

• seventh in yards per game
• 10th in points per game
• 10th in rushing attempts

That aligns closely with Seattle’s 2025 offensive identity under Kubiak.

Fleury worked with Kubiak in San Francisco in 2023, when Darnold was the backup QB.

This will be Fleury’s first stint as an OC, but the offense should look similar after Macdonald cited continuity as a key factor in the hire.

The line and pass-catching group return, but Seattle's backfield will look different. First-rounder Jadarian Price replaces Kenneth Walker III, and Zach Charbonnet is expected to miss significant time after suffering a torn ACL in the divisional round of the playoffs.

The offensive approach should remain similar, but if Price doesn't acclimate quickly, Seattle could throw a bit more. That extra volume would keep Darnold in the QB2 conversation as long as the efficiency holds.