Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. posted two of his three largest yardage totals for the season in his two meetings with the Rams. He also delivered his best and sixth-best fantasy scores in those contests -- despite not scoring a TD in Saturday's loss. That contest found him catching six of 10 targets for 96 yards. That tied his season high for receptions and marked just his third week of double-digit targets. Overall, Harrison has basically doubled his production vs. the Rams compared with the rest of his games.
Check out Harrison's averages for the two Rams contests:
Now the other 14 games:
The Rams spikes are interesting, especially when you consider that L.A.'s defense has played much better late in the season vs. earlier.
But Harrison's sluggish performance against the rest of the schedule deserves more attention.
He hasn't necessarily had a bad season. The rookie sits 33rd among WRs in PPR points per game, on a team that ranks just 20th in pass attempts, 18th in passing yards, and 28th in passing TDs.
Harrison also ranks just 34th among WRs in target share. His fantasy production sits right in line with that.
The feeling of disappointment for his production comes from fantasy players clearly expecting too much with an ADP that placed Harrison near the 1-2 turn in PPR drafts -- and in low WR1 territory.
Harrison also looks worse because classmates Brian Thomas Jr. (fourth in PPR points per game as of this writing), Malik Nabers (sixth), and Ladd McConkey (12th) all sit in WR1 territory. And Thomas and Nabers have produced in worse offensive situations.
Harrison doesn't look like a good option if your league plays through Week 18.
He gets a rematch with the 49ers, who allowed the rookie just 2 receptions for 36 yards on 7 targets in their Week 5 meeting.
Harrison also preceded Week 17 with three straight games of 4 catches or fewer and less than 50 yards. He also went five straight weeks without posting a catch rate better than 50% before the latest Rams game.
The rookie looks like a WR4 for Week 18.
Harrison's 2025 fantasy outlook will depend a lot on how the market treats him.
If his ADP opens around where he finishes 2024, then the 22-year-old -- who won't turn 23 until August -- will be worth targeting in drafts.
There's limited risk in going after a young, WR1 for his team deep in WR3 range.
If the market predicts a big turnaround, though, and positions Harrison's early ADP inside the top 20 at WR, then I'll probably be less interested.
You shouldn't let the strong seasons put forth by Thomas, Nabers, and McConkey make you worry too much about Harrison over the long term.
Sure, the early successes for those players make them better bets to continue delivering strong fantasy production. But they have no connection to Harrison's career arc beyond all four arriving in the same draft class.
Even if Harrison's offense is better than those for the Giants and Jaguars, it hasn't been all that good. And he has clearly trailed TE Trey McBride in targets.
Bet on Harrison continuing to develop. And if his offense doesn't develop with him, then we can expect changes in coaching/personnel.
Consider checking in this offseason with the Harrison drafters in your dynasty leagues to see if his "disappointing" debut presents a discount buying opportunity.
Ready to crush your fantasy football draft? This strategy guide takes you pick-by-pick through a perfect 12-team PPR draft, arming you with expert insights and battle-tested tactics. We'll also point out the critical mistakes you can’t afford to make.
Read More »
Are your rankings lying to you? Anyone can glance at a list of names. But tiers reveal the dropoffs and sweet spots that separate smart drafters from the rest. Study them now, own your draft later.
Read More »
Non-PPR drafts require a different mindset. Fail to adjust and you'll be playing catch-up all season. This strategy guide walks you through the best picks in every round of your 12-team Non-PPR draft.
Read More »
Search
