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Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. continued to struggle in Sunday's win over the Texans. He managed just 2 receptions for 55 yards among six targets. Thomas ranked third on the team in targets while drawing just 15% of Trevor Lawrence's 40 pass attempts for the game. He trailed WR Parker Washington and TE Brenton Strange in targets and catches.
Thomas now has just 7 receptions on 25 targets through three games. That's positive usage overall but obviously terrible output. And the problem seems to be both him and his QB.
Pro Football Focus has charged Thomas with a drop in each game so far. Those three drops already put him halfway to last year's total. Thomas dropped just 6.5% of his targets as a rookie, according to PFF. He's at 30% so far this season, a key reason his receiving grade sits at a lowly 55.2 (compared with 83.4 in 2024).
Lawrence has also notched three straight passing grades lower than his full-season marks for each of the past three years.
His 56.5% completion rate stands at a career low, while the 6.1 yards per pass attempt through three weeks is just 0.1 ahead of his rookie-year low (and 1.1 short of last year's rate).
The Texans on Sunday presented what's likely the toughest defense Jacksonville has faced so far this season. But they hit Sunday ranked just 21st in pass DVOA and lost top CB Derek Stingley to a rib injury in the second quarter.
The Jags visit San Francisco in Week 4 ahead of three straight home dates against challenging defenses: Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams.
Thomas probably will still belong in most lineups for Week 4, but we'll have to think a lot harder about whether to start him than we expected to entering the season.
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