Josh Downs Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Downs took a step back in 2025, finishing WR44 overall with 136.4 PPR points across 16 games and averaging just 8.5 points per game, which ranked 54th. It was the lowest per-game average of his career to date:

The regression is harder to explain away when you consider the context. The Colts passed at a higher rate than expected with Daniel Jones at quarterback, posting a 3.1% PROE in his starts compared to negative figures in each of the prior two seasons. A better passing environment still didn't help Downs.

His target share dipped despite that pass environment:

Lower target share, and Downs’ efficiency dipped too.

Efficiency & Regression

Downs’ playing declined in 2025, including a career low in route rate (among total Colts dropbacks):

• 2023: 68.3%
• 2024: 72.9%
• 2025: 62.8%

Less time on the field met with a dip in yards after the catch. Some of that can be explained by an average target depth that grew vs. 2024. But comparing Downs’ numbers to his 2023 rookie campaign reveal more about the downturn:

Yards after catch are crucial for a low-aDOT WR such as Downs. He didn’t create them in 2025, which helped drag down his receiving production overall.

Offensive Context

Downs still ran predominantly from the slot last season, with his 78.8% slot rate leading all 76 WRs who saw 50+ targets.

That marked the lowest slot rate among his three pro seasons to date, though, with that work shifting outside:

That bodes well for Downs seeing more time in two-WR sets in 2026, but he’ll need to prove he can produce out there.

Historical Production & Trends

TE Tyler Warren’s emergence also mattered. He ran a route on 79.9% of team dropbacks (compared to 62.8% for Downs). Warren also ranked second on the team behind Pittman in target share.

Part of Warren’s playing time came from the slot at the expense of Downs. The first-round pick played 43.6% of his pass snaps in the slot, cutting into the underneath looks Downs depends on. Colts TEs as a whole commanded a 25.7% target share.

That marked a change from 2024 when Colts TEs only played 29.9% of their pass snaps from the slot with a combined 15.4% target share. Warren taking slot snaps and targets from Downs appeared to also contribute to the lower target share and fantasy numbers.

The Colts also ran more multi-TE sets. They went from playing 24.8% of their offensive snaps with 2+ tight ends on the field in 2023-2024 to 35.6% in 2025. Downs only played 4.3% of his snaps with multiple TEs on the field, meaning he stayed on the sideline when more big guys came out.

That will need to change in 2026 to rebound the wideout’s opportunities.

Projected Role & Competition

Downs’ 2026 case relies heavily on opportunity. Michael Pittman Jr. is gone, and the biggest WR additions were journeyman Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and seventh-round rookie Deion Burks.

Ashton Dulin projects as the No. 3 receiver after totaling 40 receptions across his first six NFL seasons. Downs should be the favorite to join Pierce in two-WR sets, which would deliver a large boost in playing time.

Downs has played little in two-WR sets through his first three seasons, but Steichen has said he believes in Downs’ ability to perform out wide.

Alec Pierce’s March ankle surgery adds another layer of opportunity. If Pierce misses time or starts slowly, Downs could garner even more target share.

Supporting Cast

He’s not a lock for strong target volume, though. Warren enters his second season as a candidate for expanded usage, particularly with the lack of WR depth. Warren already ran nearly half his routes from the slot in 2025, and more time in there could again limit Downs’ targets over the middle.

The offense carries uncertainty as well. Daniel Jones' torn Achilles could mean a slow start or missed games, which would suppress the passing volume that makes Downs viable. One potential offset is that a less mobile Jones may be quicker to check down, which could play into Downs' strengths as a short-area receiver -- if he’s not focusing too heavily on working deeper from an outside spot.

Paths To Ceiling

Downs’ ceiling requires several things to break right:

• replacing Pittman as one of the offense’s top two WRs
• Producing alongside Warren and Piece
• and recapturing his 2024 YAC ability.

If that happens, high-end WR3 territory is back within reach.

Risk Factors

The downside risk is that we just get more of the same from 2025.

Downs would be in trouble if Jones remains hampered by last year’s injury or goes down again.

There’s also a chance that Dulin steals time in two-WR sets and keeps Downs’ role limited. His modest low-WR4 ADP would mitigate the damage to your roster, though, if things play out that way.