Josh Downs Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Downs compiled 72 catches, 803 yards, and five TDs across 14 games last season. He missed Weeks 1 and 2 after suffering a high-ankle sprain in August. A shoulder injury cost him Week 13.

Downs ranked 32nd among WRs in PPR points per game and 35th in half-PPR. He was a volatile weekly producer, with seven top-20 PPR finishes but five weeks outside the top 50.

Usage & Role

Downs ran 84.5% of his routes from the slot last season. He was rarely on the field in two-WR sets.

That kept Downs’ snap rate in the 60-75% range most weeks. He topped out at 78.6% of the snaps in Week 6.

More importantly, Downs’ 75% route rate ranked third among Colts and 63rd among WRs league-wide.

Downs still managed to draw 25.6% of Indianapolis’ targets in his 14 games. That led the team and ranked 22nd among all WRs.

Efficiency Metrics

Downs was very impressive on a per-route basis last year — especially in the context of a Colts offense that ranked bottom eight in pass attempts, yards, and TDs.

His 28% target-per-route rate ranked fifth among WRs, behind only Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, and Nico Collins. Downs’ 2.20 yards per route was good for 17th at the position. For comparison, teammates Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce averaged 1.68 and 1.82 yards per route, respectively.

Offensive Context

Downs played seven games apiece with QBs Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco last year. His usage and production were very different with the two passers. Here are the per-game splits:

With Richardson:

• 5.9 targets
• 3.1 catches
• 48.3 yards
• 0.43 TDs
• 54.2% catch rate
• 14.5 yards per catch

With Flacco:

• 9.4 targets
• 7.1 catches
• 66.4 yards
• 0.29 TDs
• 78.0% catch rate
• 9.2 yards per catch

Downs ranked 57th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 46th in actual points per game with Richardson. With Flacco, he ranked 15th in expected points and 17th in actual.

Historical Production & Trends

Downs posted a 68-771-2 line in 17 games as a rookie in 2023. He ranked 43rd among WRs in total PPR points and 56th in PPR points per game.

He posted similar efficiency marks that year, with a 69.4% catch rate, 11.3 yards per catch, and 7.9 yards per target. Downs’ 1.60 yards per route in 2023 ranked 44th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets and eighth among 14 rookie WRs.

Injury History

Downs played all 17 games as a rookie but missed part of Week 9 with a knee injury. He also missed two games in his final college season with a left knee injury.

He had the high-ankle sprain and shoulder injury last year.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts return their top four WRs from last year in Downs, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell.

Downs is locked in as the starting slot receiver. We’ll see if his usage in two-WR sets grows — but we’re not counting on it.

Downs will also face increased target competition from first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is a big upgrade from the Colts’ hodgepodge of TEs last year and should command targets right away.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Considering Downs’ usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value with Jones under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis.

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel.

We’ve seen that flexibility in Indianapolis, too. Last year, the Colts passed on just 47.1% of their plays in Richardson’s 10 games. That pass rate spiked to 59.0% in the other seven games with QB Joe Flacco.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Turning 24 in August, Downs should still be on the ascent. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs of Downs’ caliber produce at 94% of their peak at age-24 (with the peak coming at age-25).