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Week 11 IDP Hits

Let’s Dig into Derwin James, Chargers

The Chargers’ defense has ranked among the best in the league all season. But within that sits plenty of question marks and moving parts.

Let’s dig into some of the things you should know ahead of Sunday’s game against Cincinnati …

Role Shift for James

S Derwin James Jr. is enjoying his healthiest season in a while and has also seen his role change as he navigates Year 1 under the new coaching staff.

The first three weeks found James spending a larger portion of his time in the free safety role, according to Pro Football Focus – though he still moved around the formation. Then came a one-game suspension over penalized hits and the Week 5 bye.

Since then, James has seen more of his time shift from deep safety to slot coverage – a change that generally means working closer to the ball. James has also maintained his “in the box” role. And despite just the 1 sack, he’s on pact for his most pass rushes since his rookie year (2018).

Where are the Fantasy Points?

Unfortunately, the shift hasn’t boosted James’ fantasy scoring. He remains outside the top 50 in fantasy points per game. And I continue to over-rank him each week.

Well, I’ve finally decreased James’ projections a bit this week. But you’ll still find him high because the role’s there and the matchup’s positive. The Bengals have supplied the seventh-most fantasy points per game to DBs.

The problems with James’ fantasy scoring so far?

1. He’s not playing as well. James has registered his two worst PFF grades in overall defense, pass-rushing, and coverage the past two years.
2. Lack of big plays. James has 1 sack, no forced fumbles, no recoveries, no INTs
3. Play volume. The Chargers sit tied for seventh-fewest defensive snaps and the fifth-fewest rushing attempts.
4. More LB tackles. Last year’s team leader among LBs (Eric Kendricks) averaged 7.8 per game. Henley’s averaging 9.2 per contest this year. And No. 2 LB (Perryman) sits tied with James in total tackles (49 apiece).

No. 1 is obviously most under James’ control. And PFF grades indicate better performance more recently than we saw at the start of the season. James has supplied all four of his passes defensed and all four of his QB pressures since Week 6.

If James continues to not deliver this week, then I’ll push him down further next week. (But expect a Week 13 matchup with the slot-boosting Falcons to push him back up either way.)

Injuries Impact Edges

Khalil Mack played through last week’s “questionable” tag despite missing practice all week. But he lasted only 4 snaps.

So now that he has followed the same path to the weekend this time around, I’m not trusting the vet in IDP lineups. We’ll see if we learn any more ahead of game time.

Joey Bosa, meanwhile, has moved in the other direction. He put in a full practice Friday for the first time since Week 3 and carries no game designation on the final injury report – also for the first time since that week.

Bosa did wind up aggravating an injury three snaps into that contest. But this time around seems different. He said this week that they’re planning to increase his snaps from the 19-20 of the past three games to “about 30, 30-plus.”

That still indicates some limitation vs. full Bosa. But it’s obviously a positive.

Bud Dupree and Tuli Tuipulotu still look like the best bets for playing time at the position. Both are coming off multi-sack games but get a tougher matchup with Cincinnati than Tennessee presented.

Henley Leads LBs

Second-year man Daiyan Henley remains the team’s lone full-timer among non-edge LBs. He has played 100% of the snaps in two of the past three games and delivered 11+ tackles in three straight.

Whether it’s related or not, all three of those games ended as double-digit Chargers victories.

Denzel Perryman continued to join Henley in the starting lineup last week. But even with rookie Junior Colson on IR, Perryman logged just a 54% snap share.

That actually marked his second-largest share among the past five games.

Injuries, Shuffling at CB

If you’re wondering when CB Asante Samuel Jr. will return … so am I. He’s eligible to return anytime now from the shoulder injury that has cost him the past five games. But I’ve seen no recent update on when to expect him back.

CB Kristian Fulton appears ready to go, at least. He followed two limited practices with a full Friday workout and carries no game designation.

That’ll mark an important return after Fulton missed the past two games with a hamstring injury that also limited his playing time the previous three weeks.

Now let’s check on some other situations around the league … 

Buffalo Bills

LB Matt Milano’s not yet ready to play, but that’s likely not far off.

The veteran put in three limited practices this week, his first action since an August biceps tear.

I haven’t seen a specific timeline for getting Milano all the way back to full strength and usage. But a Week 12 bye means they don’t really need to get specific yet.

We’ll see what Milano and the Bills say about his role coming out of that. Expect his return to challenge Dorian Williams’ playing time – perhaps as soon as Week 13.

Chicago Bears

Edge Montez Sweat is questionable vs. the Packers. But he finished the week with a full practice, and HC Matt Eberflus reportedly “sounded optimistic” about Sweat’s chances of playing.

The ankle injury limited him to 45% playing time last week, after a shin injury limited his Week 8 and cost him Week 9.

Sweat looks just OK as an IDP option – assuming he’s active, of course – against Jordan Love. The Packers QB has taken just 7 total sacks across his seven appearances this season.

Green Bay Packers

Packers S Evan Williams and CB Jaire Alexander are questionable against the Bears.

Both guys missed Week 9 with their injuries. They each missed practice every day leading up to that contest, before Green Bay’s Week 10 bye.

Williams and Alexander each put in three limited workouts this week and seem to be trending toward playing. But we’ll see ahead of the 1 p.m. ET start.

With them out the last game, Javon Bullard elevated to full playing time, dividing those snaps among the box, deep safety, and slot coverage.

Green Bay moved several defenders in and out of the slot, with no one spending more than 15 snaps in there, according to PFF.

Indianapolis Colts

LB E.J. Speed is officially questionable for Sunday’s game against the Jets. 

He’s listed with a knee issue. That’s the same thing that kept him out back in Week 7, though it’s not clear whether this week’s issue is the same knee.

Speed graduated to a full practice Friday after being limited the first two days. And he played every snap of last week’s game.

He hadn’t been on the injury report since Week 8, when he followed the missed game with three full workouts and a return to the lineup.

Jacksonville Jaguars

LB Foye Oluokun’s three games back from his foot injury have all included more playing time than he saw in any of the season’s first three games.

Oluokun has gone 91%, 90%, and 100% the past three weeks after opening the year at 85% and 82%. (He left Week 3 early.

Fellow LB Devin Lloyd is coming off a season-high 16 tackles, but that masks a decline in playing time since Oluokun’s return.

Here are Lloyd’s weekly snap shares:

• Week 1: 75%
• Week 2: 67%
• Week 3: 66%
• Week 4: Inactive
• Week 5: 97% (Oluokun out)
• Week 6: 100% (Oluokun out)
• Week 7: 97% (Oluokun out)
• Week 8: 56%
• Week 9: 77%
• Week 10: 77%

High play volume for the Jacksonville defense has still kept Lloyd on the field for 61 and 65 snaps the past two weeks. But don’t bet on the Jags seeing 79+ defensive snaps weekly the rest of the way.

Lloyd’s a riskier IDP play than his recent tackle numbers suggest.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs lost CB Jaylen Watson back in Week 7, and the replacement plan might only now be clearing up.

Nazeeh Johnson led K.C. in tackles, delivered his first career sack and notched a top-5 fantasy score among DBs for Week 10. He did so in his second start and first game with more than 43% playing time.

Johnson got his first start in Week 8 but left that game with a concussion that kept him out for Week 9. Joshua Williams started that game in his place but then gave the job back to Johnson last week.

You can now find Johnson in DB4 range of the Week 11 rankings. I’ll go ahead and bet that we don’t commonly get 10 tackles from him. But we’ll see what kind of numbers we should expect.

Minnesota Vikings

LBs Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr. each entered Sunday’s game at Jacksonville questionable. Both played, but less than full time.

Cashman spent 80% of the snaps on the field after a three-game layoff for a toe injury.

Pace played just 59%. He did open the week missing practice with his knee issue but progressed to a full Friday workout.

That 59% was in line with Pace’s rates before Cashman went down. Here’s how their playing time looked across the first three shared games this year (Pace missed weeks 3 and 4):

They posted nearly identical stat lines in Week 10, and Pace actually managed usable fantasy numbers in two of those three earlier weeks. But that’s a worrisome level of playing time for using him going forward.

New England Patriots

The Patriots are activating DT Christian Barmore from the non-football injury list ahead of Sunday’s clash with the Rams.

Barmore’s still officially questionable but expected to make his season debut in that game – according to Ian Rapoport – after missing the first following a summer scare with blood clots.

Barmore shouldn’t be in IDP lineups, given that we won’t know how much playing time to expect right away. But he’s got a shot to impact DT-required leagues. Barmore racked up 8.5 sacks, 6 passes defensed, and 64 total tackles last season.

Six Other Questionables to Watch

The Patriots list six other key defensive players as questionable for Sunday’s game:

• S Kyle Dugger
• DL Deatrich Wise
• DT Daniel Ekuale
• LB Christian Elliss
• LB Sione Takitaki
• S Marte Mapu

Dugger’s the most fantasy-relevant and appears ready to return. He remained limited in practice all week, but that marked a significant improvement over missing practice every day last week.

ESPN’s Mike Reiss also called Elliss on the “cusp” of returning. If he and Takitaki both turn up active, we’ll see exactly how the playing time breaks down. Elliss’ playing time went 69%, 84%, 58% over his past three appearances. Takitaki played a season-high 47% last week, with Elliss out. Jahlani Tavai remains the best bet for LB playing time.

Mapu played through a “questionable” designation last week for the same neck issue but didn’t start and played just 40% of the snaps. I’ve knocked his projection down for Week 11.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The team has ruled Edge Alex Highsmith out for Sunday’s game against the Ravens, after he left last week’s game with an ankle injury.

Fortunately for the Steelers, that has coincided with Edge Nick Herbig returning from a four-week hamstring injury. He put in full practices all week, which should mean he’s at least close to full strength.

But this will also be the second game since Edge Preston Smith arrived via trade from Green Bay. DC Teryl Austin described Smith’s Week 10 debut for the team as “pretty” and said Smith’s role will grow this week.

Having both Herbig and Smith around makes it tough to project either for a high-impact fantasy outing – especially against a Ravens team allowing just 1.3 sacks per game.

Who Belongs in Your IDP Lineup?

Have trouble figuring out which IDPs to get into your lineup each week? The Team Intel page combines our 3D Projections with the specifics of your situation to give you a clear picture every week.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.