Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Week 5 IDP Hits: Payton Wilson Might Make -- or Kill -- Your Season

Reminder: We're Still Learning About Some Guys

I might be in an abusive relationship with Payton Wilson.

I’ve been writing since he arrived as a prospect last year about the stat upside to his profile, and I got excited when Wilson opened this season by topping 85% playing time each of the first two weeks.

Then, of course, I had to acknowledge last week the understandable dip in Week 3 playing time. Wilson fell to a 47% snap share -- trailing Cole Holcomb -- and the Steelers won at New England. Time to move on … I thought.

So Wilson, of course, spent Week 4 in Ireland racking up a season-high 13 tackles (including 8 solos and 2 tackles for losses) plus a QB hit. And his playing time rebounded right back to the level of the first two weeks. And he most notably chased down WR Jordan Addison to stop him at the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter.

So Do We Trust the Rebound?

We’ll have to keep watching. But that Addison play certainly stood out for Wilson’s coaches.

“That’s who he is,” LBs coach Scott McCurley said. “That’s the way he approaches the game, with that energy and effort. That’s what you love about him.”

McCurley added that Wilson’s performance against the Vikings “flipped the switch a little bit” for the LB’s early-down play, which had been lagging and led to Holcomb’s Week 3 cameo for run defense.

DC Teryl Austin added: “It was a huge play. … That’s why we run to the ball. We talk about it in practice all the time to finish and do those things. He did it. … His individual effort helped our team win the game.”

I’m back in. It seems like Steelers coaches want Wilson to be the answer. Holcomb played just 10 snaps in that Minnesota game.

We should get a good test for Wilson in a Week 6 meeting with Quinshon Judkins.

Henry To’oTo’o in Trouble?

The Texans starting LB suddenly saw his playing time halved in Week 4’s shutout victory over the Titans. Check out his first four snap shares of the season:

• 95%
• 96%
• 89%
• 48%

Uh oh. And E.J. Speed jumped in for 56% playing time after totaling 16 snaps across his first three games with the team.

Of course, we rarely get media coverage on situations like this, so we’re left to do some investigating. There doesn’t appear to be any injury at play. And the gap between To’oTo’o’s final two tackles in the game seems telling.

His penultimate stop came with a minute left in the first half, with Houston leading just 6-0. The next didn’t come until the final possession of a long-decided contest. And here’s how Titans RB Tony Pollard fared on the ground in that game:

According to PFF grading, To’oTo’o is playing the worst run defense of his career so far -- and not making up for it in other categories. He has also missed a career high 24% of his tackle attempts. That nearly doubles his 13.6% rate from last year.

We’ll see what Houston does at LB this week, but re-installing your struggling run defender against Derrick Henry doesn’t seem like the move.

I’ve knocked To’oTo’o way down the Week 5 LB rankings, and a Week 6 bye makes him even easier to dump outright in many places.

Maybe Nick Bosa Injury Didn't Kill 49ers Pass Rush

The 49ers’ pass rush appeared to be in huge trouble in Game 1 after Edge Nick Bosa suffered his Week 3 ACL tear. Just check out the pressure picture through the first four games (by PFF numbers):

That Week 4 performance came against Trevor Lawrence, who had taken pressure on 23% of his dropbacks vs. Cincinnati and 34% vs. Houston the previous two weeks.

Fortunately for the Niners, Thursday night’s game marked a rebound. San Francisco collected 16 pressures on Matthew Stafford’s 48 dropbacks.

We should note that Stafford sits tied for most total pressures on the season, and that game stands as his second-lowest pressure rate through five weeks. So we’ll see how much of that we should attribute to matchup and how much to 49ers performance.

But San Francisco gets a positive sack matchup against the Bucs in Week 6. Baker Mayfield carries the seventh-highest pressure rate among multi-game starters this season.

Any Pass Rush Targets for Your Lineup?

The bad news for IDP folks: San Francisco spread that pressure production around the defense. Edge Bryce Huff was the only guy to pressure Stafford more than twice Thursday night. He delivered the team’s only sack and can be a decent play in sack/pressure-friendly fantasy formats.

Edge Sam Okuayinonu, DT Jordan Elliott, and Edge Yetur Gross-Matos followed with 2 pressures apiece.

Gross-Matos would stand the best shot at IDP viability among them going forward, but he strained a hamstring in that game and is expected to miss some further time. He already hadn’t exceeded 33.3% playing time in a game this year.

First-round rookie Mykel Williams brings the best combo of ability and playing time but has started his pro career just the way college went: playing plenty and not delivering numbers. He has 1 QB hit and 10 total tackles through five games despite playing at least 65% of the snaps every week.

Braden Fiske Ready to Rebound?

The Rams’ second-round DT enjoyed a strong rookie year that included cracking the top 35 among fantasy D-linemen (depending on your format). That has made the much more difficult start to his second season especially noticeable. But he might be on the verge of a turnaround.

Fiske suffered an oblique injury in Week 2 that limited him to just 13 snaps in that contest. Fiske returned to play the following week but got in just one practice and managed a mere 37% snap share. And his empty Week 4 stat line made it look like the struggles were continuing.

But Fiske climbed to 52.5% playing time in that win over the Colts. He also notched his first QB hit of the year and 3 total pressures (according to PFF), matching his total from the first three games.

Fiske followed that with a season-high 50 snaps played (58%) in Thursday night’s OT loss to the 49ers. And he notched another 3 pressures, including his second QB hit. Fiske has also earned his two best PFF pass-rushing grades of the season the past two weeks.

The DT’s scoring will probably remain inconsistent. That’s how it goes for the position, and Fiske’s rookie-year scoring relied pretty heavily on his 8.5 sacks. But there’s upside to a Week 6 matchup with Baltimore, especially if Lamar Jackson remains out.

Carson Schwesinger Down But Far From Out

In case you’re wondering, yes, I have moved the Browns rookie down the rankings for Week 5 and the rest of the season. But there’s nothing wrong or changing with him.

The second-round pick has played 97% of the snaps through four games, and he appears to be playing solid-to-well in all areas.

So why am I talking about lowering his projections? There’s a lot more guessing on stat production when you’re projecting a player with zero NFL history, so I’m adjusting his numbers down based on what we’ve seen so far.

But you’ll still find Schwesinger higher in our rankings than he sits in season-scoring average (LB34 in balanced-scoring points per game). And he remains a player I’m high on. This week’s matchup against the Vikings should be good for his tackle floor as well.

Cardinals LB Settles Into Useful Role

I was shocked when Arizona played Akeem Davis-Gaither for just 37% of the Week 1 snaps. They had just signed him to a two-year, $10 million contract despite a five-year run with the Bengals that never found the LB start more than seven games in a season.

That play rate quickly climbed, though. Here are his snap shares for the past three games:

• 62%
• 80%
• 79%

And Davis-Gaither has showed that 80% range is enough to make him useful. He tallied 8 tackles (5 solo) in the Week 3 loss at San Francisco and then 10 tackles (5 solo, 1 tackle for loss) in the Week 4 loss to Seattle.

That level of playing time lowers both the ceiling and floor, but ADG has settled into a much better level than where he started the year.

Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland Working on Odd Playing Time

The Cowboys got both starting corners on the field last Sunday night for the first time since Week 1, but neither stayed on the field nearly as long as usual.

DaRon Bland made his return from a right foot injury that cost him two games. He started against the Packers opposite Kaiir Elam, and the Cowboys slid Trevon Diggs back into a rotational role.

Diggs entered the year still working back from a “complex offseason knee surgery,” according to Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The veteran corner has also said he’s dealing with a hamstring issue. 

The Cowboys planned to limit his exposure from the start, playing Diggs on just 43% of the Week 1 snaps. But Bland went down in that opener, pushing Diggs to a Week 2 start and 91% playing time. Diggs started again in Week 3 but dipped to 66% playing time. He prorated in for 64% against Green Bay, while playing his second most snaps (53) to date.

Diggs has been limited in practice this week after finishing last week with two full workouts.

Bland has now put in five full practices in a row and might be ready for more playing time this Sunday against the Jets. Neither looks like a good bet for your IDP lineup.

Who’s Reddy?

The best PFF coverage grade in Dallas doesn’t belong to any of the experienced DBs, but rather second-year man Reddy Steward.

After playing no snaps in the opener, the 24-year-old has become the primary slot corner the past three weeks. His 67.6 coverage grade is solid but not spectacular. So we’ll see how the Cowboys decide to align their corners when (if?) both Bland and Diggs get back to full health.

Bland ran as the primary slot man in Week 1 of this year. Getting back to that would mark a turn vs. his past two seasons but match his rookie-year usage in 2022.

One More Cowboys Injury Update That’s Probably More Important

LB DeMarvion Overshown took part in actual practice last week for the first time since suffering his second ACL tear last Thanksgiving.

He wasn’t in full pads or participating in team drills, and Overshown’s likely still not close to playing. But it’s an encouraging development for a guy who has been expected to return around this Thanksgiving.

It’s tough to envision Overshown making an IDP impact this year. He’ll likely need a build-up period for his playing time, and it’s not clear a full-time role this year awaits him. But a fully healthy Overshown would remain at least an interesting dynasty asset.

He’ll be 26 when next season begins.

Time to Win Your Season

Sure, you crushed your draft. But did you win anything yet?

Taking down the title includes actually managing your team throughout the season.

That means waivers, trades, setting lineups ... and we're here to help you with all of it. If you haven't done so already, it's not too late to become a DS Insider.

Next Up

Week 5 IDP Waiver Wire: Might Be Time to Trust Devin Lloyd

Next Article  

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.