FANTASY FOOTBALL NEWS

Baker Mayfield Had a Worse Week 4 Than the Numbers Reveal

By Matt Schauf | Updated on Mon, Sep 29 2025 8:07 PM UTC

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield wound up with a good fantasy line in Sunday's loss to the Eagles: 289 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. He sits 10th among fantasy QBs by ESPN scoring heading into the Monday night games, in a week he entered ranked outside our top 12. But he used plenty of luck to get there. He found WR Emeka Egbuka for a 77-yard TD on a nice third-quarter throw as he rolled right, threading just between two defenders in coverage. Mayfield's 72-yard TD to RB Bucky Irving later that quarter also found him leading his receiver nicely down the left sideline after protection had broken down. But Mayfield also threw a bad end-zone INT to LB Jihaad Campbell. He nearly had another pass picked off by CB Cooper DeJean. And he was fortunate to recover his own fumble in the second quarter.

2025 Fantasy Football Impact

The Bucs' two turnovers Sunday -- Irving lost a fumble -- were the teams' first two of the year. But Pro Football Focus has Mayfield tied with Saints QB Spencer Rattler for the most turnover-worthy plays through four weeks.

Mayfield also ranks third in total PFF big-time throws, and his 7.1% rate in that category has doubled his rate from last year.

But his 5.1% TWP also sits at a career-high level by a solid margin. That portends more INTs on the way.

Of course, this has always been the book on Mayfield, right? Take the good and the bad with the gunslinger mentality. But take note:

his completion rate (59.7%) is way down
his 6.5 yards per pass attempt would tie for the lowest mark of his career
his INT rate sits at a career low (despite the aforementioned turnover flirtations)
and his Pro Football Reference passing success rate would be the second-lowest of his career.

Mayfield's TD rate (5.8%), on the other hand, sits second-highest among his eight seasons -- trailing only last year's (7.2%).

The whole package adds risk to the fantasy outlook, especially with Seattle on tap for Week 5. The Seahawks sit second in pass-defense DVOA.

None of this means you need to dump Mayfield, but consider him a potential sell if you're looking into deals.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.