Baker Mayfield Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Mayfield threw for 3,693 yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs across 17 games last year. He finished 10th in passing yards and tied for seventh in TDs.

Baker added another 382 yards and a score on 55 carries. Only eight QBs ran for more yards.

Mayfield finished 19th among QBs in fantasy points per game. He scored as a top-12 QB in seven of 17 outings.

Mayfield was much more productive before injuries to him and his pass catchers, ranking QB8 in fantasy points per game through Week 6 but just QB20 from Week 7 on.

Efficiency & Regression

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

He proved more efficient early in the season, too:

Offensive Context

The 2025 Buccaneers finished:

• 13th in plays
• 21st in total yards
• 25th in yards per play
• 18th in points

It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected.

WR injuries were a major factor, with Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin sharing the field for only the final four games.

• Evans missed Weeks 4, 5, and 6 with a hamstring injury and Weeks 8-14 with a concussion and broken collarbone.
• Godwin missed the first three games while recovering from his 2024 ankle injury and then missed Weeks 6-11 with a fibula injury.
• Egbuka played all 17 games but was limited in the middle of the season by a hamstring injury.

Historical Production & Trends

Mayfield has sandwiched a big 2024 season between two mediocre campaigns as Tampa Bay’s starter.

He was QB21 in fantasy points per game in 2023 before jumping to QB3 in 2024, when he set career highs in completion rate (71.4%), yards per attempt (7.9), and, most importantly, TD rate (7.2%).

That 7.2% TD rate was the 18th-highest mark among 812 QB seasons of 250+ pass attempts since 2000. Mayfield has thrown a TD on 4.6% of his passes across his other seven NFL seasons.

Injury History & Durability

Mayfield played all 17 games last year but appeared on the injury report early in the season with right biceps and knee issues. He suffered an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder near halftime of Week 12, missing the second half.

Mayfield also played all 17 games in both 2023 and 2024. He missed two games with a torn labrum in his left shoulder in 2021 and two games with a high-ankle sprain in 2022.

Mayfield also notably sustained two concussions in college.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Projected Role & Competition

Mayfield is back on the final season of the three-year, $100 million contract he signed in March 2024. He and the team have discussed a new deal this offseason but haven’t come to an agreement.

Supporting Cast

For the first time since 2013, WR Mike Evans won’t be a Buccaneer after departing for San Francisco in free agency.

Injuries limited Evans to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year. But over the previous two seasons, he accounted for:

• 19.8% of Tampa’s receptions
• 28.0% of the receiving yards
• 34.8% of the receiving TDs

It’s a significant loss for Mayfield, particularly in the red zone.

The Buccaneers are hoping that Emeka Egbuka is ready for the lead role after an up-then-down rookie season. He averaged 89.0 yards and 1.0 TDs over his first five games but just 41.1 yards and 0.1 TDs over his final 12. A Week 6 hamstring injury was at least partly to blame. The 19th overall pick of the 2025 draft is certainly capable of a Year 2 breakout.

Tampa Bay also returns WR Chris Godwin another season removed from that nasty 2024 ankle injury and WR Jalen McMillan, who has flashed across his first two NFL seasons. WR Ted Hurst arrived in the third round of the draft after two huge seasons at Georgia State.

This still has the potential to be an above-average WR corps. TE Cade Otton is a steady if unexciting pass catcher. And the Bucs have two plus pass-catching RBs in Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell.

Mayfield will also be playing behind a sturdy offensive line that returns all five starters. OTs Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke are particularly strong.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. Mayfield worked with Robinson during his six-week stint with the Rams in 2022 and reportedly played a part in the hire.

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix Jr. and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Zac Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this to be a fairly balanced offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Mayfield finished QB3 in fantasy points per game back in 2024 thanks mostly to a historically high TD rate. That’ll be tough to match, especially without Evans. But Mayfield could pair strong passing efficiency with above-average rushing production to score as a top-10 QB this season.

Risk Factors

Mayfield has finished QB21 and QB19 on more normal TD rates in his other two seasons as Buccaneers starter. He lost his top TD scorer in Evans and will be working in a new offense under OC Zac Robinson.

Without strong efficiency, Mayfield could again score as a mid-range to low-end QB2.