Chris Godwin Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Godwin racked up 50 catches, 576 yards, and five TDs in seven games last year, before a dislocated ankle ended his season.

Through Week 7, he ranked:

• 1st among WRs in catches
• 2nd in receiving yards
• 3rd in receiving TDs
• 2nd in PPR points

Godwin scored as a top-21 WR in PPR points in five of seven outings, including three top-eight finishes.

Usage & Role

Godwin’s 62 targets through Week 7 led the Buccaneers and ranked third among all WRs. He drew a 26.5% target share in those games, which was good for 13th at the position.

Godwin’s 5.6-yard average target depth was a career low and tied for second shortest among 84 qualifying WRs.

And he played second fiddle to Mike Evans when the Bucs got near the end zone. Godwin’s nine red-zone targets and two end-zone targets through Week 7 ranked outside the top-30 WRs.

Still, his overall volume led to him averaging 14.7 expected PPR points per game, which ranked 15th among WRs.

Efficiency Metrics

Godwin caught a career-best 80.6% of his targets last year, in large part because of the low average target depth. He averaged 11.5 yards per catch and 9.3 yards per target. The latter mark was his best since 2020 and ranked 20th among 89 qualifying WRs.

Godwin registered a career-high 2.36 yards per route, which was good for 10th among those 89 WRs.

He was a big-time overachiever in terms of actual fantasy points vs. expected. In fact, Godwin averaged 5.0 more PPR points per game than expected — the biggest gap among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last year.

Offensive Context

Godwin played in a strong Tampa Bay offense that ranked third in total yards and fourth in points. The Buccaneers ranked sixth in total plays. So, despite a 55.9% pass rate that ranked just 20th, they finished 10th in total pass attempts.

Tampa Bay leaned more on the pass in the red zone, ranking 14th in red-zone pass rate and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected.

Historical Production & Trends

Godwin’s 19.7 PPR points per game last year were a career high, just edging his 19.6 in 2019. He’s scored 15+ PPR points per game in five of his last six seasons now, with 2023 the lone exception. Godwin ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in yards (1,024) that year but got unlucky to score just twice.

Here are his finishes in PPR points per game since his 2019 breakout:

• 2019 - 2nd
• 2020 - 15th
• 2021 - 7th
• 2022 - 18th
• 2023 - 38th
• 2024 - 3rd

Injury History

Godwin’s 2024 season ended with a dislocated left ankle on October 21. He had surgery later that week.

December ACL and MCL tears in his right knee cut short his 2021 campaign. He’s missed eight more games as a pro with three hamstring injuries, a finger injury, and a concussion.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The biggest question with Godwin heading into 2025 is his recovery from the dislocated ankle. His rehab has gone smoothly by all accounts, but the team has stopped short of guaranteeing that he’ll be ready by Week 1.

The Buccaneers did give Godwin a three-year, $66 million deal with $44 million guaranteed in March, which suggests no long-term concerns about that ankle. But they also spent the 19th overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Emeka Egbuka.

Egbuka is a strong insurance policy on Godwin. He won’t threaten a healthy Godwin’s playing time, but he could impact his role.

Egbuka ran 73.2% of his routes from the slot at Ohio State. Godwin is at a 54.7% slot rate for his NFL career, including 61.9% last year. So there’s some overlap here in terms of deployment.

Godwin has been more efficient from the slot. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 9.2 yards per target and 2.26 yards per route from the slot vs. 6.9 yards per target and 1.80 yards per route from the outside.

Beyond Egbuka, Godwin will once again be battling for targets with WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, RBs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, and TE Cade Otton.

Supporting Cast

QB Baker Mayfield is back under center for the Bucs. He’s coming off career bests last year in:

• Passing yards
• Passing TDs
• Completion rate
• Yards per pass attempt
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

Tampa Bay also returns all five starters from last year’s offensive line, which ranked second in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade and fifth in ESPN pass block win rate.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Former OC Liam Coen left to take the Jaguars’ HC job this offseason after leading Tampa Bay to top-four finishes in points and total yards last year.

He’ll be replaced by Josh Grizzard, who was the team’s passing game coordinator last year. Grizzard spent the previous seven seasons with the Dolphins, moving from offensive quality control to WRs coach. He has no play-calling experience at any level, but the Bucs are prioritizing continuity after the big 2024 season under Coen.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Godwin will play the 2025 season at 29 years old. That’s past prime for WRs on average. But our aging-curve research says that we can still expect 90-96% of peak production.