Chris Olave Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

A pair of concussions limited Olave to eight games — and six full games — last year. He finished with 32 catches for 400 yards and one TD.

Olave officially finished 57th among WRs in PPR points per game. But if we omit the two games he left early, he climbs to 36th.

Olave finished as a top-26 PPR WR in four of his six full games.

Usage & Role

Olave averaged 7.0 targets per game on a 23.6% target share across his six full games. Both marks led the team over that span.

Olave ranked 36th among WRs in expected PPR points per game in his healthy outings.

Efficiency Metrics

Olave registered a career-low 10.3-yard average target depth last year. But that helped him to career bests in catch rate (72.7%) and yards per target (9.1). Olave ranked 27th in yards per target among 106 qualifying WRs. His 2.13 yards per route was good for 22nd.

Offensive Context

The Saints offense was not very good last year, finishing 24th in points, 21st in yards, and 17th in yards per play. The passing game ranked:

• 23rd in yards
• 20th in TDs
• 30th in completion rate
• 22nd in yards per attempt

Olave at least had a healthy QB Derek Carr for five of his six games. Olave averaged 4.4 catches and 55 yards with Carr — and went for 107 yards on eight receptions in his one game without him.

Historical Production & Trends

Olave’s 9.8 PPR points per game last year were easily a career low. He scored 13.3 as a rookie in 2022, finishing 27th among WRs. He improved to 14.3 points per game and a WR21 finish in 2023.

Olave has topped a 23.5% target share and 2.05 yards per route in each of his three NFL seasons. Only four other WRs have seen 40+ targets and averaged 2.05+ yards per route in each of the last 3 years:

• Justin Jefferson
• A.J. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Injury History

Olave has sustained five documented concussions — one at Ohio State in 2020, one as a rookie in 2022, one in 2023, and two last year. It leaves him at elevated risk of future head injuries.

Olave also missed one game in 2023 with a right ankle injury.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Saints swapped out Marques Valdes-Scantling for Brandin Cooks this offseason. That’s, at best, a lateral move at this point of Cooks’ career. He hasn’t reached 700 yards in a season since 2021 and averaged a career-low 25.9 yards per game last year.

Otherwise, New Orleans made no significant moves in the pass-catching corps. WR Rashid Shaheed, RB Alvin Kamara, and TE Juwan Johnson return from last year’s squad. Olave remains the favorite to lead this team in targets.

Supporting Cast

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves second-round rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans’ most likely starter. The other options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in spot duty last year.

Shough spent six injury-plagued years in college but is coming off a nice 2024, posting career highs with 3,195 passing yards and 23 TDs. His 87.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade ranked fifth among 128 qualifying QBs.

Shough is not lacking in terms of arm talent, but he’s a big question mark for Olave and the Saints heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC.

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel. His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

Moore is no stranger to producing high-end fantasy WRs, either. Here’s his history:

2019 - Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup finish as top-18 WRs in PPR points per game

2020 - Cooper ranks 22nd in PPR points per game

2021 - CeeDee Lamb takes over as top dog and finishes WR23

2022 - Lamb climbs to eighth among WRs in total PPR points

2023 - Keenan Allen ranks third in PPR points per game (Mike Williams finishes 10th, albeit in just three games)

2024 - A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith finish as top-17 WRs in PPR points per game

Production & Efficiency Trends

Olave will play this season at 25 years old. That’s right around peak age for WRs, according to our aging-curve research.