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Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Overview

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid
Player Profile

TE BUF

Height

6'4"

Weight

240 lbs.

Experience

2 yrs.

Bye

7

Birthday

Oct 18, 1999

Age

25.7

College

Utah

NFL Draft Pick

2023 - Rd 1, Pk 25

Fantasy Rankings & Projections

Fantasy Rankings

Weekly
BYE -
Season
TE {{playerPageAppVar.projectionForRestOfSeason && playerPageAppVar.projectionForRestOfSeason.rank[selectedScoringConfig.fantasyPtsKey] ? playerPageAppVar.projectionForRestOfSeason.rank[selectedScoringConfig.fantasyPtsKey].rank : "-"}}
Dynasty
TE7

2025 Projections

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
{{fullPreSeasonProjection ? fullPreSeasonProjection.rec_catch.toFixed(1) : '0'}} {{fullPreSeasonProjection ? fullPreSeasonProjection.rec_yds.toFixed(1) : '0'}} {{fullPreSeasonProjection ? fullPreSeasonProjection.rec_tds.toFixed(1) : '0'}} {{fullPreSeasonProjection ? fullPreSeasonProjection[selectedScoringConfig.fantasyPtsKey].toFixed(1) : '0'}}

DS 3D Projection

Dalton Kincaid's Preseason Player Analysis

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Kincaid totaled 44 catches, 448 yards, and 2 TDs in 13 games last year.

The second-year man finished as a top-12 PPR TE in only four games. He recorded a single top-five fantasy finish.

The downside was frightening, with Kincaid finishing at TE20 or worse in six games. Overall, he ranked TE30 in total PPR points; 22nd in points per game.

Usage & Role

Kincaid’s usage was affected by a Week 10 PCL sprain.

He saw 6.0 targets per game – a 20.4% share – from Week 1 to Week 9. He averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game (TE15), with an expected points per gamr figure of 10.4 (TE9).

However, over his final six games, Kincaid saw just 4.2 targets per game (14.5% share).

On the year, he finished a distant second in targets behind WR Khalil Shakir.

Efficiency Metrics

If we remove his mid-game departure in Week 10, here’s how Kincaid performed vs. 2023:

Kincaid improved his yards after catch per reception (6.5 vs. 4.3), despite his average target depth increasing by nearly two yards. He also saw his catchable target rate drop sharply from 89.9% (2023) to 69.0%.

Still, 2024 marked a clear step back for the former first rounder.

Offensive Context

Low pass volume party explains Kincaid’s poor production.

OC Joe Brady’s unit ranked 29th in pass rate, albeit 13th in pass rate over expected. Josh Allen played at an MVP-level, although he averaged a career-low 28.4 passes per game.

Buffalo finished a mid-pack 21st in offensive pace.

Amari Cooper joined the squad ahead of Week 7, but his arrival didn’t negatively impact Kincaid’s target share. The former Brown averaged 4.7 targets per game across seven appearances, inflated by a 14-target outing in Week 14.

Injury History

Beyond the Week 10 PCL sprain, Kincaid played through an early-season collarbone injury.

GM Brandon Beane stated his desire for Kincaid to add strength this offseason.

"He's going to have to continue to work on his play strength. He's not as built and muscular as, let's just say, Dawson [Knox] is, and so that's one of the nuances of this game," Beane said in January. "In college you don't play 17 games plus playoffs, so building your body up to withstand what it takes.”

Kincaid missed one game with a concussion in 2023. In college, he sustained a tailbone fracture (November 2022) and an A/C joint sprain (October 2022).

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Bills return their top-three target earners from 2024: WR Khalil Shakir, Kincaid, and WR Keon Coleman

TE Dawson Knox also returns after averaging 2 targets per game in 2024.

Buffalo added Josh Palmer in free agency, and his contract (3 years, $18 million guaranteed) suggests he’ll play a sizable role. But the addition could be more about adding another deep threat alongside Keon Coleman, rather than an indictment of Kincaid’s play.

Elijah Moore signed a one-year deal after back-to-back 100-target seasons in Cleveland. Perhaps the boost in QB play brings out his best, but Moore’s contract signals he’s not even a lock to make the team.

Shakir ultimately projects as the go-to target. Still, a healthy Kincaid brings the potential to be a co-No. 1.

Supporting Cast

Josh Allen remains the engine behind this unit. In 2024, he ranked top 10 in TD rate, success rate, QBR, and yards per attempt.

Per Pro Football Focus, he also led the league in Big Time Throw Rate. PFF defines big-time throws as passes “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

Allen’s ability to extend plays also boosts Kincaid’s big-play potential.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

OC Joe Brady returns for his second season as play-caller.

Last year, he instilled an ‘everybody eats’ mantra. Here’s Allen with more on the approach repeating in 2025.

"We're returning a lot of guys,” Allen said in April. “That helps when guys are fresh and understand what Joe's trying to implement and what type of really, mantra - the 'everybody eats.' I think I have the hat on right now. That's not just a one-year thing."

Buffalo remains without a clear-cut No. 1 WR, so a fairly even distribution of targets wouldn’t surprise us. Expect game-to-game fluctuations with target volume, depending on health, performance, and matchups.

Advanced Stats

Forty Yard Dash

4.68

Forty Yard Dash Rank

77%

Speed Score

102.00

Speed Score Rank

71%

VIEW MORE ADVANCED STATS

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Shark Bites

Dalton Kincaid TE BUF
6:06pm UTC 6/3/25

Dalton Kincaid Dealt With "Uncommon" Knee Injury Last Year

Dalton Kincaid Dealt With "Uncommon" Knee Injury Last Year

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid revealed that he dealt with an "uncommon" right knee injury last season called a Morel-Lavallee Lesion. Kincaid described the injury as “a form of bursitis where basically the skin underneath the knee is filling up with fluid." The injury is believed to have occurred in Week 16, according to Banged-Up Bills' Dr. Kyle Trimble, who adds that "it should heal just fine."

Bills GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott mentioned "play strength" as an area they'd like to see TE Dalton Kincaid improve in this offseason. "Dalton Kincaid didn’t have the year that he expected or we expected. He’s gonna have to continue to work on his play strength," Beane said. "He got nicked up and I think that set him back." Beane is referring to the Week 10 PCL injury that cost Kincaid three games. He averaged just 2.7 catches, 27.2 yards, and 0 TDs over his final six games (including playoffs). Kincaid averaged 3.6 catches, 36.9 yards, and 0.2 TDs over his first nine healthy games.

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid played through a torn PCL in Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. The news comes via teammate Dawson Knox, who adds that Kincaid “aggravated” his other knee. “It’s insane what he’s played through,” Knox concluded. Kincaid missed three regular season games with an injury to his left knee and didn’t look right for most of 2024. He finished just 22nd in PPR points per game after slotting 13th as a rookie. A balanced offense hurts Kincaid’s chance of a 2025 rebound, but he has the talent to earn TE1 status.

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