Deebo Samuel Fantasy Overview

Decent 2025 Despite Challenges with New Team

The 49ers traded Samuel to Washington ahead of free agency last year for the fifth-round pick that became RB Jordan James.

Samuel factored prominently into a Commanders offense that missed WR Terry McLaurin and QB Jayden Daniels for impactful stretches. Samuel’s 99 targets, 72 catches, 727 yards, and 5 TD receptions all led the team. He ranked 20th league-wide among WRs in target share.

Important to Note the QB Splits

Not surprisingly, Samuel fared better in games that Daniels played. Check out these splits for six games with the starting QB vs. 10 games without him:

• Per-game averages with Daniels
  • 14.2 PPR points
  • 7.7 targets
  • 5.8 receptions
  • 50.0 yards
  • 0.33 TDs
• Without Daniels
  • 10.3 PPR points
  • 5.4 targets
  • 3.7 receptions
  • 42.7 yards
  • 0.30 TDs

Samuel also ran the ball a bit more in non-Daniels games, averaging 1.4 carries across those contests vs. 0.50 when the starter played.

Overall, the wideout ranked 33rd in PPR points per game and 35th in expected PPR points per game. He posted five top-24 PPR weeks among 16 appearances, with four of those among the season’s first five contests.

Samuel also landed outside the top 50 six times, including three of the season’s final four contests.

Samuel’s Body Also Got in the Way

In addition to the QB challenge, Samuel likely played through a heel injury through much of the season. He only made the final injury report for that issue in weeks 6 and 7, missing the second of those contests.

Samuel notably went from 6.0 receptions per game through Week 5 to 3.8 per game from Week 6 on. And that five-game season-opening stretch included two weeks without Daniels in the lineup.

Efficiency Dipped but Didn't Crash

Samuel posted a career-low 10.1 yards per catch, which shouldn’t come as a shock for a 29-year-old WR on a new team, missing the starting QB for more than half the year, and with a well-populated injury history.

Samuel’s average target depth also dipped vs. the previous two years -- 5.5 yards, compared with 6.9 and 7.3, according to Pro Football Focus -- but was merely the third-shortest of his career. His yards after catch per reception also dipped to a career-low 6.5. That also shouldn’t be surprising given that it was Samuel’s first year outside a Kyle Shanahan scheme that’s historically good at maximizing after-catch production.

Samuel still went for 1.1 YAC per reception over expected, which ranked 14th among qualifying WRs. So he still proved good in that area, even if not as good as previously.

Samuel’s 1.66 yards per route ranked a decent 33rd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets. That marked a bump from his 1.60 in 2024 and marked the third season among his past four that finished in the range of 1.60 to 1.69.

We Can't Ignore the Injury

Despite the heel injury, last year marked just the second time in his seven-year career that Samuel played at least 16 games. He had missed two or more in each of the previous three seasons.

Other recent ailments included:

• Calf strain, wrist, and rib/oblique injuries in 2024
• Shoulder fracture and a slight hamstring sprain in 2023
• Ankle sprain and MCL sprain in 2022

His injury reports are always worth watching.

2026 Finds Him Back Home

Pearsall’s Knee Struggles Create Space

Samuel spent most of the offseason lingering in free agency, but the 49ers re-signed him at the start of August after losing WR Ricky Pearsall to knee surgery. That opens an immediate starting opportunity, and Samuel reportedly chose San Francisco over other interested suitors. That points to the promise of opportunity.

The Niners imported WR Mike Evans in free agency, signed WR Christian Kirk to a small one-year deal, and drafted WR De’Zhaun Stribling at the start of Round 2.

Stribling has impressed in summer workouts, but he’ll need to prove he’s ready for a sizable role before pushing Samuel aside.

Evans also comes with his own spotted injury history, including some level of hamstring issue every season since 2019. There’s real risk that the 33-year-old (as of Aug. 21) will miss time at some point, which would boost the available targets.

TE George Kittle is coming off a January Achilles’ tear as well. There’s been plenty of optimism around his rehab, but the situation obviously presents a challenge against Kittle matching his usual performance level. That’s another path to potential opportunity.

Samuel Finds Familiarly Strong Scheme

Of course, we don’t have to guess nearly as much at Samuel’s fit as we might typically with a receiver joining a new team. He spent his first six pro seasons playing under Shanahan after the 49ers drafted him early in Round 2 in 2019.

Samuel has reached 100 targets in a season just once, averaged 60+ yards per game once (both in 2021) and never reached 5.0 receptions per game for a season. But he has enjoyed strong catch rates (66.7% career, 65.5% with San Francisco) and perennially stood out for his after-catch ability.

The three seasons Samuel shared with Brock Purdy before the Washington trade found him ranking third, first, and first in YAC per reception among WRs with 50+ targets. His ranks among WRs in PPR points per game for those seasons:

• 2022: 28th
• 2023: 14th
• 2024: 45th

Ceiling Probably Not That High

Samuel probably finished last season higher than you realize: 25th among WRs in total PPR points. But his scoring was front-loaded, as we addressed earlier. That, plus his time on the open market and lackluster final season in the first San Francisco run should keep his ADP down. And that’s key to addressing his fantasy outlook.

Samuel’s far from a lock to deliver regular starter-worthy weeks for the 49ers. But he does find opportunity, a scheme that has worked for him before, an accurate QB, and enough of his skill set remaining intact (based on last year’s metrics).

It’s probably not reasonable to dream of upside beyond WR3 range, but Samuel could remain a useful contributor in 2026.