Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Walker scattered 153 carries, 573 yards, and 7 TDs across 11 games. He broke out as a pass catcher with 46 catches, 299 yards, and 1 score.

That production turned into four RB1 fantasy finishes, five as a RB2. His worst output (RB34) came in a blowout loss to Buffalo.

Overall, he finished RB12 in PPR points per game; RB4 in expected PPG.

Usage & Role

Walker tallied a solid 68% carry share, peaking with an 81% share in Week 9. He was the clear lead back for first-year OC Ryan Grubb.

No surprise there. But as a pass catcher? That’s where you might have been thrown off.

Walker averaged 4.8 targets per game after notching 2.4 from 2022-2023. He ranked fifth on the team in targets, despite six missed games. And he finished only 3 catches shy of tying Tyler Lockett for third on the team.

Efficiency Metrics

Think injuries affected his efficiency?

Think again.

Among 31 RBs with 150+ attempts, Walker ranked:

• 2nd in PFF Elusive Rating
• 4th in PFF rushing grade
• 15th in yards after contact per attempt
• 16th in success rate

Now, Walker ranked 21st in PFF’s Breakaway Percentage, a metric designed to measure a RB’s explosive run output. Perhaps the early-season oblique injury played a role there.

Regardless, there are no obvious red flags to point out.

Offensive Context

Walker ran behind one of the league’s shakiest run-blocking O-lines. Seattle ranked 28th in ESPN’s run block win rate; 24th in PFF’s run blocking grades.

Walker wasn’t boosted by a run-happy scheme, either. OC Ryan Grubb posted the league’s fifth-lowest run rate at 37.2%.

Injury History

Walker missed time with ankle, calf, and oblique injuries. HC Mike McDonald even said this June that Walker’s “working through an ankle, but he should be fine.”

He’s missed at least two games in all three pro seasons, and durability remains the biggest knock against him entering 2025.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Walker hits a contract year set for another lead back role.

Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet returns as the No. 2 RB and change of pace option. In 11 healthy games with Walker last season, Charbonnet tallied only:

• 4.1 carries per game
• 12.8 rushing yards per game
• 2 total rushing TDs
• 6.8% target share

Seattle added RB Damien Martinez in the draft, but he fell to Round 7 and doesn’t project as a 2025 factor.

Supporting Cast

Odds are against this offense making meaningful strides.

Swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold makes for a slight upgrade based on 2024 results. But it only increases the volatility of this unit based on the complete careers of both passers. And what if Darnold can’t succeed outside of a great environment in Minnesota?

The WR corps looks worse after swapping out D.K. Metcalf for Cooper Kupp, too. The former Ram has missed 5+ games in three straight seasons.

There’s at least reason for hope along the O-line after Seattle invested a Round 1 pick in G Grey Zabel.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

In June, OT Abe Lucas shed some light on the new offensive approach under OC Klint Kubiak.

"I'll put it like this, we're trying to be elite at very few things,” Lucas said via Seattle’s official site. “But those few things are what the offense is going to be based around, and that's the run game. We're going to be elite at the run game. That's the philosophy with it. It's not some hodgepodge of a bunch of different stuff we're just throwing in. We're going to be elite at the basics to make sure that they work so we can do it against anybody."

Seattle signaled a commitment to the ground game by converting rookie TE Robby Ouzts to FB. But does this line up with Kubiak’s brief OC history?

Consider this: In 2021 – with Kirk Cousins at QB – the Vikings ranked 21st in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

Last year, in a much less stable situation, New Orleans finished 19th in pass rate; 25th in pass rate over expected.

Seattle’s current personnel suggests Walker will play a huge role on the ground – if he’s able to dodge injury trouble.