Kyle Pitts Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Pitts caught 47 balls for 602 yards and four TDs across 17 games last year. He finished 15th among TEs in total PPR points but just 25th in points per game.

Pitts turned in a pair of top-five scoring weeks and finished as a top-12 TE six times. But he had seven weeks outside the top 30. Six of those came over his final nine games.

Usage & Role

Pitts played more traditional in-line TE last year than he did in any of his first three seasons. Still, he ran just 38.2% of his routes from in-line. 41.3% of his routes came from the slot and 20.5% out wide.

Pitts also registered a career-low 8.7-yard average target depth last year, although that was still sixth highest among 36 TEs with 40+ targets.

Pitts’ 74 targets last year ranked fourth on the Falcons and 16th among TEs. But he ranked just 23rd at the position with 4.4 targets per game. Pitts’ 13.2% target share also ranked 23rd.

He finished 24th at the position in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

The lower average target depth helped Pitts record a career-best 63.5% catch rate last year. He still averaged a strong 12.8 yards per catch. His 8.1 yards per target was his best mark since his rookie year and ranked 12th among 36 qualifying TEs.

Pitts ranked just 28th among those 36 TEs in targets per route, though. That pushed his yards per route down to 1.33, which ranked 23rd. Pitts finished 29th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade.

Offensive Context

The 2024 Falcons finished 13th in points and sixth in total yards. They were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense, ranking:

• 9th in pace
• 8th in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

QB Kirk Cousins started the first 14 games of the season but was benched for QB Michael Penix for the final three.

Pitts totaled 10 targets on a 10.0% share with Penix — down from 13.9% with Cousins.

Pitts’ receiving lines with Penix:

• 1-7-0
• 4-44-1
• 2-15-0

Historical Production & Trends

Pitts’ target share has now declined in three straight seasons. His yards per route has declined every season since his 2021 rookie campaign. Here are the numbers:

Not surprisingly, Pitts’ fantasy production has also gone south. His finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2021 - 12th
• 2022 - 24th
• 2023 - 18th
• 2024 - 25th

Injury History

Pitts has played all 17 games in three of his four NFL seasons. He missed seven games in 2022 — one with a hamstring injury and six with a right knee injury. That was originally reported as a torn MCL, but Pitts later revealed that he also tore his PCL.

Pitts had surgery in November 2022 and missed most of the 2023 offseason program. He played every game in 2023 but said that the knee was still an issue throughout the year.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Falcons made no significant changes to their pass-catching corps this offseason.

Pitts should remain the clear lead TE but will battle for targets with WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud, plus RB Bijan Robinson.

Supporting Cast

Michael Penix will be under center for the Falcons this year. He showed well in three starts at the end of his 2023 rookie campaign, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and earning an 87.6 overall PFF passing grade. That ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks and easily beat Kirk Cousins’ 72.3.

Penix might come with a wider range of outcomes than Cousins — but there’s a good chance he proves to be an upgrade.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

The Falcons’ pass rate dipped to 51.0% with Penix last year vs. 54.3% with Cousins at the helm. Expect Robinson to let Penix throw it more in 2025, although this still figures to be a run-leaning offense.

We currently project the Falcons for a 54.7% pass rate in 2025.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Pitts turns 25 in October — peak age for TEs, according to our aging-curve research.

We’re not ready to completely throw in the towel on him. But Pitts’ downward trends in volume, efficiency, and fantasy production are obviously worrisome.