Matthew Stafford Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Stafford Posts Lackluster Numbers

Stafford posted the second-fewest fantasy points per game of his career last season and finished his third straight year south of 4,000 passing yards.

He did finish four of 16 weeks among the top 9 fantasy QBs but just two other weeks inside the top 20. That included nine weeks of finishing QB22 or lower.

Stafford averaged just 235.1 passing yards per game. That came two years after Stafford averaged 231.9 per game -- both rates well below his career average of 269.4 yards per game.

The QB also fell short of 4% passing-TD rate for the second time in the past three years, though he added the lowest INT rate (1.5%) for any season in which he has played more than three games.

Deeper Metrics Reveal Nothing Too Concerning

There was some luck in that last stat. Stafford tied the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate of his career, according to Pro Football Focus. His PFF passing grade also reverted from a career high in 2023 to its second-lowest among the past nine seasons.

Stafford’s completion rate and yards per pass attempt fell right in line with the rest of his career, however. And he posted the second-best passing-success rate of his career, according to Pro Football Reference.

Overall, the Rams remained one of the stronger pass offenses in spite of injuries at receiver. They ranked 10th in pass-offense DVOA for the year while earning their highest rating in the category among Stafford’s four seasons with the team.

Injured, Shallow WR Corps Challenged Stafford’s Efforts

Stafford faced the challenge of losing his top two wideouts for a combined 11 games.

Puka Nacua entered the year already dealing with a PCL sprain that he aggravated in the opener. Nacua left that game early and spent the next five on IR. He remained limited his first two games back — 57% and 35% playing time — before getting back near his normal role for Week 10.

Cooper Kupp followed with a Week 2 high-ankle sprain that cost him four games surrounding the Week 6 bye. He stayed on the field after that return but performed like a declining player.

Kupp matched his career low for yards per catch and set a new low in yards per target. The Rams then consciously uncoupled with the 31-year-old after the season.

Even with their missed time, Nacua and Kupp easily led the team in targets. Demarcus Robinson’s 64 ranked third, trailing No. 2 Kupp by 36.

QB Hasn’t Approached 2021’s Heights Since Then

Stafford finished last season just 27th in fantasy points per game among multi-game starters at QB. That continued his big swings in production with the Rams.

Stafford finished 2021 as QB11 in fantasy points per game, the year L.A. won the Super Bowl. That season included a career-high-tying 41 TD passes on a career-best 6.8% TD rate. (He’s at 4.6% for his career.)

He followed that year with rankings of QB31 and QB18 in points per game, leading up to last year.

2025 Expectations

Stafford Might Have the Best Pass-Catching Group Since He Arrived

The Rams admitted with their post-season moves that last year’s WR corps wasn’t good enough. Shortly after dumping Kupp, they signed Davante Adams to a two-year deal. Adams happens to be about six months older than Kupp but did not show the former Ram’s signs of decline in 2024.

Adams hasn’t spent nearly as much time in the slot as Kupp for his career and sports a career average target depth 2.5 yards deeper than Kupp’s. But Adams did see his largest share of slot snaps by a wide margin in 2024. His 11 games with the Jets, in fact, found Adams running 52% of his pass snaps from the slot, according to PFF.

A shorter aDOT (second-shortest of his career) also led to Adams’ most yards after catch per reception since his 2014 rookie year. Perhaps the Rams looked at that and saw a better version of Kupp, who spent 63.5% of his snaps in the slot as a Ram.

Adams joins Nacua, who probably hasn’t even hit his prime yet (turned 24 in May). The Rams also paid WR Tutu Atwell $10 million on a one-year deal to keep him off the free-agent market.

Tight End Stronger as Well

At TE, they’ll get a full season of Tyler Higbee after he missed all but the final three regular-season games while recovering from an ACL tear. And the team drafted upside TE Terrance Ferguson in Round 2.

Ferguson caught 117 passes across three seasons at Oregon and then delivered elite speed and athleticism testing at the Combine.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Besides the aforementioned career-high TD rate that boosted Stafford’s 2021 production, there’s another key reason we shouldn’t expect him to approach that ceiling again. HC Sean McVay doesn’t want him to pass that much.

Just check out the Rams’ annual pass rates since McVay arrived:

• 2017: 54.6%
• 2018: 56.7%
• 2019: 62%
• 2020: 56.5%
• 2021: 60.3% (Stafford arrives)
• 2022: 58.9%
• 2023: 56.4%
• 2024: 56.7%

That 2019 campaign marked Todd Gurley’s last with the team, when he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. That team also got Kupp’s breakout season, prime Robert Woods, and 26-year-old Brandin Cooks.

The 2021 Rams had Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson splitting backfield work and Kupp’s most dominant year (as our Comeback Player), along with the flashy new QB.

The Rams’ trend in neutral-situation passing seems to point even more clearly toward McVay moving things to the ground …

• 2017: 58.0% (highest in the league)
• 2018: 56.9% (eighth)
• 2019: 57.5% (fourth)
• 2020: 57.6% (ninth)
• 2021: 58.0% (fifth)
• 2022: 51.7% (14th)
• 2023: 54.5% (12th)
• 2024: 51.0% (20th)

Stafford missed eight games in 2022, and last year featured the WR injuries and Higbee absence we already discussed. So don’t be surprised if there’s a bit more passing volume in 2025. But also don’t expect Stafford to return to 600 attempts.

Even if something happens to RB Kyren Williams, the Rams have drafted Blake Corum (Round 3) and Jarquez Hunter (Round 4) the past two years.