Nico Collins Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Collins tallied 68 catches for 1,006 yards and seven TDs across 12 games last year. He finished 10th among WRs in PPR points per game. If we omit Week 5 when he left with a hamstring injury and Week 18 when he was pulled early, Collins climbs to eighth in PPR points per game.

His volume and production wasn’t quite as strong after that Week 5 hamstring injury. Here are the splits:

Four games pre-injury:

• 10.8 targets
• 7.5 catches
• 122 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• WR3 in PPR points per game

Six games post-injury:

• 8.2 targets
• 5.2 catches
• 67 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• WR25 in PPR points per game.

Usage & Role

Collins operated as Houston’s clear No. 1 WR when healthy last year. He averaged 9.2 targets on a 26.3% share in his 10 full games. Only 14 WRs had a bigger target share.

Collins’ 15.9 expected PPR points per game ranked 10th among WRs.

Efficiency Metrics

Collins reeled in 68.7% of his targets and averaged 14.8 yards per catch last year. His 10.2 yards per target ranked eighth among 89 WRs with 50+ targets. Collins ranked second in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and third in yards per route (2.87).

Collins is just one of four WRs to average 2.5+ yards per route in both of the last two seasons (joining Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown).

Offensive Context

Collins’ strong 2024 came despite a downturn from QB C.J. Stroud and Houston’s offense.

The Texans went from 13th in points, 12th in total yards, and seventh in passing yards in 2023 to 19th in points, 22nd in total yards, and 21st in passing yards last year.

Historical Production & Trends

Collins broke out in 2023, posting an 80-1,297-8 line in 15 games and ranking eighth among WRs in PPR points per game. He averaged 7.3 targets per game on a 21.1% target share. Collins’ 11.9 yards per target and 3.10 yards per route were both second-best among 80 qualifying WRs.

Collins’ 17.4 PPR points per game over the past two seasons rank eighth among all WRs.

Injury History

Collins has missed time in all four of his NFL seasons.

• 2021: three games with a shoulder injury
• 2022: two games with a groin injury, five games with a foot injury
• 2023: one game with a hamstring injury, one game with a calf injury
• 2024: five games with a hamstring injury

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Collins finds himself in a new-look Texans WR room heading into 2025. WR Stefon Diggs left for New England in free agency, while WR Tank Dell will likely miss the entire season after last December’s multi-ligament knee injury.

That duo will be replaced by some combination of WRs Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel.

The Texans sent a 2026 seventh-round pick to Jacksonville for Kirk in March. He’s coming off a disappointing, injury-shortened season and has reached 1,000 yards in just one of seven NFL seasons.

Higgins is the more exciting addition. The 6’4, 214-pounder is a physical WR with sneaky athleticism who has actually drawn comparisons to Collins. Higgins is coming off a 1,183-yard 2024 season at Iowa State and figures to start on the outside opposite Collins right away.

Noel out-produced Higgins at Iowa State last year, going for 1,194 yards on 80 receptions. He’s undersized at 5’10, 194 pounds but is an explosive athlete with sub-4.4 speed. He projects as a primary slot receiver as a pro and could push Kirk for playing time as early as this year.

Overall, it’s a less proven WR corps than last year’s version. That gives Collins the upside to see an even bigger target share in 2025.

Supporting Cast

QB C.J. Stroud will look to bounce back after a disappointing sophomore season. He sank from 8.2 yards per attempt as a rookie to 7.0 last year.

We’re optimistic that he’ll be better in 2025, although he’ll need to get better offensive line play. Last year’s unit ranked 22nd in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 19th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.

Five-time Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington in March. He’s expected to be replaced by free-agent signing Cam Robinson — a solid player but a clear downgrade from Tunsil.

The Texans also added OT Trent Brown, G Laken Tomlinson, and G Ed Ingram in free agency, plus OT Aireontae Ersery in Round 2 of the draft. But the team will be counting on improved play from C Jarrett Patterson and Gs Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs.

The offensive line is the biggest worry for the Texans and Collins heading into 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Texans canned OC Bobby Slowik shortly after last season and replaced him with Nick Caley. It will be his first time calling plays at any level, making him a bit of a wild card.

Caley spent the last two seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, holding the title of TEs coach in 2023 and passing game coordinator last year. He was with the Patriots from 2015 through 2022. Those first seven offenses were led by OC Josh McDaniels.

Based on that history, we’re projecting Caley to run a relatively balanced offense in terms of run/pass split, with an above-average deployment of three-WR sets.

Caley said this offseason that the Texans will be a "game-plan team," adjusting their attack based on opponent matchups and player strengths.

But expect Collins to remain the focal point of this passing game.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Collins turned just 26 in March, putting him in his prime seasons of production. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs tend to peak at age 25 or 26.