Tre Harris Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

A mid-October groin injury cut short Harris’ final college season. But his seven healthy games produced these numbers:

• 8.4 receptions per game
• 141 yards per game
• 0.86 TDs per game
• 33% of Ole Miss’ receptions
• 37.4% of the receiving yards
• 41.2% of receiving TDs

Usage & Role

Harris worked almost exclusively outside through college, running 85% or more of his pass snaps from that position each of his four years. He spent 88% of his career snaps on the outside.

He didn’t run a wide variety of routes over his two Ole Miss seasons. Harris primarily lived on curls, slants, and “go” routes (straight down the field).

He’s likely to keep leaning heavily on such routes in the pros but might need some further development in that area if the Chargers want him to do more.

Efficiency Metrics

Harris averaged 5.12 yards per route in 2024, which seems like a typo vs. others in the category. For context, no other WR invited to this year’s Combine surpassed 3.72.

Harris’ rate was the highest recorded by a Power 5 WR on 200+ routes since Pro Football Focus started tracking in 2015.

His 3.78 yards per team pass attempt also led all Combine WRs, while his 89.4 PFF receiving grade ranked second among that group.

Harris’ 100.8 yards per game across two seasons at Ole Miss made him just the second player in SEC history to average 100+ receiving yards per game for his career.

Historical Production & Trends

Harris likely benefited from playing with QB Jaxson Dart, a first-round pick by the Giants this year. Dart showed willingness to throw deep and into contested situations, both of which played to Harris’ strengths.

In his healthier 2023, Harris didn’t separate as much from fellow Ole Miss WRs Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins (a 2024 fourth-round pick by the 49ers) ...

Harris showed out as a downfield receiver in both seasons with the Rebels. He was the nation’s only WR to earn a 99.9 PFF receiving grade on deep targets (20+ yards downfield) both years.

Harris caught 20 of 38 targets for 724 yards and 6 TDs on such plays over that span. You can find his full prospect profile here.

Injury History

Although the groin issue cost him nearly half of his final college season, there’s nothing on this front that looks like it should persist into Harris’ pro career.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

We should see open competition for roles alongside Ladd McConkey in 2025.

The primary slot man led Chargers receivers in playing time as a rookie and figures to remain the target leader. Behind him, though, Quentin Johnston and a 31-year-old Mike Williams stand as primary competition.

Johnston improved significantly in many categories as an NFL sophomore. But he remained a limited performer. A lot of the significance of his improvement relied on how bad his first season was.

Johnston ran as the team’s primary “X” receiver in 2024, though – a role that fits Harris’ skill set nicely. So that’s who Harris will likely need to outperform to grow his initial snap share.

Williams arrived on just a one-year, $3 million contract after signing with the Jets for $10 million last offseason. He’ll need to prove he’s still relevant after 2024 found the Jets and Steelers quitting on him. The team’s other WRs – and TEs – look more like roster filler than role challengers.

Supporting Cast

QB Justin Herbert looks like arguably the biggest positive for any Chargers pass-catcher. He has played well amid changing situations through his first five NFL seasons. That has included 66.5% career completions.

Herbert’s also coming off career highs in yards per pass attempt, PFF passing grade, and NFL passer rating.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Here’s the biggest question mark for the entire Chargers outlook.

HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman each arrived in 2024 with run-heavy backgrounds, including their four shared seasons piloting the 49ers in the same roles.

You could say personnel contributed there, but Harbaugh and Roman have also piloted run-favoring offenses individually at other stops. The strongest example of Harbaugh’s run lean might be his two years with Andrew Luck at Stanford.

Harbaugh’s two Luck teams went:

• 41.2 rush attempts per game vs. 24.1 passes in 2009
• 41.2 rushes vs. 29.2 passes in 2010

Then Harbaugh left for the Niners, and Luck’s final season (under HC David Shaw) found the team go:

• 39.8 rushes per game
• 32.1 passes per game

… with the same lead back (Stepfan Taylor) as 2010.

Harbaugh produced similar rates with first-round QB J.J. McCarthy at Michigan.

What About Now?

Of course, college football remains much different from the pros. And even Harbaugh’s run leans in the NFL haven’t proved as drastic as those college numbers. But his four years as San Francisco’s HC produced an exact 50-50 run-pass split. And Greg Roman’s other six years as an NFL OC produced an overall 50.5% run rate vs. 49.5% pass.

Herbert’s easily the best pro passer Harbaugh has coached and at least arguably the best for Roman (vs. Lamar Jackson). So we should expect some more passing. But how much?

Last year’s Chargers ranked second in the league in neutral-situation pass rate after their Week 5 bye. But they followed that by signing Najee Harris in free agency and drafting Omarion Hampton in Round 1.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Harris’ work in contested situations could be key to him winning early playing time. He struggled in that area in his first Ole Miss season (35.7% contested catch rate in 2023, according to PFF).

But Harris improved in 2024 – on limited opportunities (13 vs. 28 in 2023) – catching 61.5% of his contested chances. That marked the second time he cracked 60% in his four seasons.

Harris caught 48.4% of contested targets for his college career. Johnston went 40.7% of his three-year college run, with that number getting worse each year. And his rate has dipped further in each pro season:

• 31.8% in 2023
• 30.4% last year

In his first season as the primary “X” receiver under Harbaugh and Roman, Johnston ranked:

• 41st among WRs in total targets (according to PFF)
• Tied for 25th in contested targets
• 26th in rate of targets that were contested
• 91st in contested catch rate (among 105 WRs who drew 40+ targets)

If Harris shows this summer that his 2024 play in contested situations was no fluke, that could propel him ahead of Johnston.