Bills GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott mentioned "play strength" as an area they'd like to see TE Dalton Kincaid improve in this offseason. "Dalton Kincaid didn’t have the year that he expected or we expected. He’s gonna have to continue to work on his play strength," Beane said. "He got nicked up and I think that set him back." Beane is referring to the Week 10 PCL injury that cost Kincaid three games. He averaged just 2.7 catches, 27.2 yards, and 0 TDs over his final six games (including playoffs). Kincaid averaged 3.6 catches, 36.9 yards, and 0.2 TDs over his first nine healthy games.
It was undoubtedly a disappointing sophomore season from Kincaid, who sunk to 7.8 PPR points per game after averaging 9.5 as a rookie.
The knee injury certainly played a part. But the bigger issue was Kincaid's catchable target rate plummeting from 89.9% in 2023 to 69.0% last year. His average target depth rose from 6.0 to 7.5, but that's not nearly enough to explain the big drop in catchable targets. There's some variance there that should rebound in 2025.
On the plus side, Kincaid actually improved his target share, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade from year one to two. Still only 25, Kincaid should still be on the ascent.
He's an interesting bounce-back candidate in 2025. Kincaid is going in Round 11 as TE12 in early best-ball ADP.
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