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Jets RB Breece Hall disappointed fantasy managers in 2024, going from mid-Round 1 pick to just 17th among RBs in PPR points per game. Does a new coaching staff provide hope ... or should we simply lower our expectations for Hall?
HC Aaron Glenn, via ESPN's Rich Cimini: "I think, mentally, he's in a good place, but I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we're going to utilize as much as possible."
I've been viewing -- and treating -- Hall as a strong early-draft value in my best ball drafting so far. He's my fourth most-rostered RB across 73 drafts on Drafters as of this writing. But now I'm concerned.
Hall ranked just 14th among RBs in expected PPR points per game last year -- and scored even worse than that (as I mentioned above).
So both his usage and his performance were problematic.
Hall remained the best of the Jets' RBs. He led rookie Braelon Allen in both NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per attempt (0.02 vs. minus-0.64) and Pro Football Focus' elusive rating (60.6 to 36.1).
But rookie Isaiah Davis edged Hall in elusive rating and beat him soundly in yards after contact per attempt (4.20 to 3.04) as well as yards per carry (5.8 to 4.2).
Hall also ranked third among the trio in Pro Football Reference's rushing success rate and receiving success rate.
So it makes sense for Glenn to be highlighting the whole group ... and for the Jets to plan to spread touches around some.
We should get a better idea of that distribution as we move into summer and closer to the season.
Hall sits 10th among RBs in our default PPR rankings at the moment. These words from Glenn probably aren't enough to knock his numbers down much from that. But Allen and Davis should probably move a little higher.
Of course, there will be plenty of RB shuffling around the league once we have landing spots for this enticing class of RB prospects.
Hall sits 11th in best ball ADP at the moment, which seems fair. He still has the upside to outperform that level if his in-season performance commands a larger share of the work.
More temperate assessments from the new coaching staff, though, could knock him a little further down in ADP as we get further into draft season.
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