Is Stefon Diggs the WR3 You Need?

What They're Saying

Russini: "While New England will monitor his reps early on, Diggs has looked strong in his return after tearing his ACL last October while taking team reps with second-year QB Drake Maye."

Diggs on YouTube: "If you wasn't here every day with me in rehab, you probably would look at me four-five months like, damn, that's fast. Yeah, but you ain't be here every day. You ain't been doing what I've been doing. ... You haven't been as consistent as I've been."

ESPN's Mike Reiss: "Diggs joins veteran free agent signing Mack Hollins, third-year slot Demario Douglas and 2025 third-round pick Kyle Williams atop the receiver depth chart, with a handful of others competing for roster spots -- a group including Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, and 2024 draft picks Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, among others."

2025 Fantasy Football Impact

Diggs' contract obviously positioned him as the team's lead receiver whenever his knee proved ready. So that nugget from Reiss is more interesting for how it positions other wideouts.

First of all, he mentions four WRs "atop" the depth chart. New England's certainly not going to run four WRs as the base formation, so one of those four will trail the others. I'd bet on that being Mack Hollins, at least from a production stand point.

Hollins turns 32 on Sept. 16, has averaged just 1.4 receptions per game for his career, and has exceeded 31 catches in a season once (with the 2022 Raiders).

He could serve as outside insurance in case Williams isn't ready for full duty right away. But the rookie has already been working with starters, and the Patriots likely hope he can start immediately.

That grouping would seem to indicate Williams and Diggs as the primary outside WRs, with Douglas running third as the slot man. The third-year receiver has run 74% of his pass snaps from the slot so far, according to Pro Football Focus. He did so on 87.8% of college snaps. And at just 5'8, Douglas certainly doesn't profile as an NFL edge WR.

Diggs, on the other hand, has spent 69% of his NFL pass snaps outside. But that trended slightly down across his four Buffalo campaigns. And then Houston ran Diggs from the slot on 52.8% of his snaps before the 2024 injury.

If New England plans to stick him primarily back outside, then Diggs would likely see a rebound from last year's career-low 8.3-yard aDOT (per PFF). That would likely help bring his catch rate back down below 70% -- Diggs hit 73.4% last year and sits at 69.0% for his career -- but it should also help his yards per catch. Last season's 10.6 marked the second-lowest average among Diggs' 10 seasons.

Of course, all of that will also depend on just how close his knee stands to full strength.

We'll be watching reports on Diggs throughout the summer, but his process has clearly proved encouraging so far.

Other Winners & Losers

Maye will obviously benefit if he can get anything close to full-strength Diggs from the start of the season.

New England's second-year QB has offered solid-to-good value in early drafts, standing at QB14 in best ball ADP.

Projected ADP Movement

Diggs sits just 43rd among WRs in Underdog Fantasy ADP. That's strong value now that we know he's got full clearance. And Diggs probably makes for an even better lineup-setting option than he does for best ball tournaments.

The veteran's well set up to draw a large target share and has long been efficient on catch rate and yardage. We'll have to see about his explosiveness and TD opportunities, but Diggs can pay off as a consistent WR3 at his current price.

We'll see whether that price starts to rise now.