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2015 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Grab This New Orleans Saint

Jimmy Graham's gone. Kenny Stills is gone. The top 2 pass-catching backs from last season are gone. Those 4 players accounted for 48.4% of the team's 2014 targets. And Cooks was on pace to finish 2nd on the team in looks before a broken thumb ended his season in the 10th game.

He stands as the pretty clear favorite to lead this team in 2015 targets.

In the 9 Sean Payton-Drew Brees years, every Saints leader in that category has garnered at least 19.3% of the team's total passing looks but not more than 22.7%. Graham claimed the mantle each of the past 4 seasons, with Marques Colston leading in 4 of the previous 5. (Lance Moore made a 2008 cameo.)

The team leader has totaled a 20.8% share over that span, including 2 seasons in which Colston led despite missing time, a year in which Graham missed a game and injuries that limited his effectiveness for stretches each of the past 2 seasons.

That share would give Cooks 125 targets among 600 pass attempts, which would be 50 fewer than Brees has thrown in any of the past 5 seasons. Consider that a floor for a healthy Cooks.

The 2nd-year man could be in for the biggest share of any top Saints receiver in recent memory. His "competition" for targets include a 32-year-old Colston who seems near the end of his career, unproven TE Josh Hill, free-agent RB C.J. Spiller and the rest of a receiving corps in which Joe Morgan and Nick Toon present the most recognizable names.

New Orleans already got Cooks quite heavily involved as a rookie. He was on pace for 110 targets through 10 games, topping Graham 4 times over that span (all after Graham's shoulder injury). The Saints also altered the rookie's role a bit as the season wore on. Cooks finished 4 of his 1st 5 games with less than 10 yards per catch, averaging just less than 8.0 per reception over that stretch. The next 5 contests saw him average at least 10.0 every time out, with about 14.0 yards per reception overall for that stretch.

The difference came in target depth and indicates that the team sees more than just some little, quick guy who can do stuff with passes near the line of scrimmage. (That should be closer to Spiller's job description this year.) Cooks did well on limited deep-ball action last season, catching 4 of 6 targets thrown 20+ yards in the air, with 2 TDs and 1 drop (1 of just 2 overall for the year). Expect more shots to him in that area of the field this year, and expect them to be good shots.

Brees has ranked 4th or better in Pro Football Focus' deep accuracy percentage 5 of the past 6 years. The 1 time he didn't -- and the year before that span began -- he still led the league in deep-ball TDs

And Cooks is still a guy who can take the short stuff and create. He ripped off a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the 2014 Scouting Combine. And he took 61 handoffs over 3 college seasons, including a 32-217-2 rushing line (6.8 yards per carry) in 2013. He didn't do anything special with his yards after the catch last season, but we'd expect growth in that area this fall. There also figures to be a bit more rushing work after he carried 7 times in 10 games as a rookie.

That won't significantly alter his fantasy outlook, but it will give him a further bump plus a few more potential scoring chances. (Cooks rushed for 1 TD in the red zone last year.)

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Cooks' catch rate declined a bit as his targets got deeper last season, but he finished with a terrific 76.8% overall. He could dip below 70% and still rank among the best at his position in that category. Cooks' hands and Drew Brees' accuracy seem likely to keep him catching the ball quite efficiently. And Cooks' 2015 situation could have him contending for the NFL reception lead.

The only real question here might be what kind of scoring role Cooks can play at 5'10, 189. Lance Moore, for what it's worth, was often a red-zone favorite of Brees' at a slightly smaller size.

Cooks looks like 1 of the safest bets on the PPR board, with a high ceiling to go with his high floor.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.