Don't Trust the Box Score: Jefferson’s Elite Play Still Shows

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

It has been a miserable season for Jefferson and his fantasy managers. He went 2-11-0 last week despite the Vikings scoring 31 points in a shutout of the Commanders. He now has three straight games with fewer than 9 PPR points. Jefferson is averaging 12.1 PPR points per game, by far the lowest of his career.

Jefferson entered the season as one of the league’s best WRs. Now, questions linger about whether his talent has dipped or if HC Kevin O’Connell and QB J.J. McCarthy are driving the decline.

Let’s look at the film to see if Jefferson has truly lost a step.

On this play, Jefferson runs a crease route against a deep zone. He is wide open for what should be an easy pass in stride, giving him room to pick up yards after the catch.

McCarthy’s ball placement is off, sailing the pass too high and forcing Jefferson to adjust. Instead of continuing his momentum, Jefferson has to leave his feet to secure the catch.

His acceleration still allows him to pick up 13 yards, but it could have been a bigger play.

The Vikings run a WR screen to manufacture a touch for Jefferson. The blocking develops late, and Jefferson is taken down in the backfield for a 2-yard loss.

Manufacturing touches makes sense, but without execution it won’t boost his production.

This is the look Jefferson wants: a deep one-on-one against CB Mike Sainristil in the end zone. Sainristil shades inside, and Jefferson leans outside to create the back-shoulder window.

McCarthy instead throws inside, giving Jefferson no leverage.

Jefferson again shows his football IQ and positioning to set up a potential TD, but the opportunity is missed.

When Greatness Gets Lost in the Noise

Jefferson’s issues aren’t due to a sudden loss of talent. He and McCarthy appear consistently out of sync. Jefferson remains a savvy route runner who can get open and create after the catch. But McCarthy often throws to a different spot than Jefferson expects.

Jefferson is frequently bracketed or doubled, and McCarthy rarely gives him a chance against those looks. Sam Darnold at least picked his spots last year to test tight coverage.

Jefferson still has elite skills, but that doesn’t make him a must-start entering the fantasy playoffs. The Vikings have the league's easiest WR schedule moving forward, including a Week 15 trip to Dallas.

Use your team dashboard to determine if Jefferson belongs in your lineup. His low floor could sink you if this stretch of sub-9-point games continues.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Walker has disappointed this season, posting only three top-10 PPR weeks out of 13 appearances. The Seahawks scored 37 points in blowing out the Falcons last week. Even so, Walker went just 10-29-0 on the ground with 1 catch for minus-1 yard. The low volume remains a problem.

With Zach Charbonnet handling more work near the goal line, Walker’s upside has been capped. But that doesn’t mean his skills have diminished. The film still shows a strong runner with balance, vision, and power.

On this play, Walker takes an inside zone handoff while keeping his eyes on the second level. He sees the LBs crash to their right, opening a large cutback lane. He shifts in that direction with ease.

He powers through contact on the first tackle and stays balanced through the second. He doesn’t break away for a TD, but the 10-yard gain is more than most backs would create on this call.

Walker showcases his burst to the edge on this run. He sees the inside lane closed off and identifies an opening outside. He accelerates past the LB and nearly turns the corner away from CB A.J. Terrell.

Walker is doomed from the start on this play with penetration through the left side of the O-line and weak blocks elsewhere.

He avoids the first two tackles and even hurdles a third defender. He can’t stay upright after the hurdle, though, and goes down for a loss.

Walker continues to show effort and athleticism, even on outside runs that break down. Seattle’s lean toward outside runs for him means more opportunities for lost yardage.

The Future Looks Brighter Than the Present

Walker still presents a starting-RB skill set, but the rise of the Seahawks’ passing game and the split with Charbonnet make him difficult to start. His lack of production shouldn’t be mistaken for a lack of talent. He can still handle more carries and break long runs.

Walker is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason. His talent should allow him to surface as a starter elsewhere. He may not help much in these fantasy playoffs, but he remains a consideration for next year and in dynasty formats.

Chris Rodriguez, RB, Washington Commanders

Rodriguez has emerged as the lead back for the Commanders, posting double-digit carries in each game. Last week, he went 10-52-0 despite the team getting shut out by the Vikings. He also nearly scored early in the game.

Rodriguez isn’t a receiver, with only 1 catch all season (and just two targets), but his power and vision seem to have earned him steady playing time. The film was strong despite Washington never contending.

Rodriguez squeezes through a small hole off tackle on this run. He stays balanced through the line and powers forward for 10 yards. He even makes a subtle inside shift near the end of the run to slip past S Josh Metellus for extra yardage.

Rodriguez gets a huge lane and builds speed to the third level on this play. He accelerates through an arm tackle as he approaches S Harrison Smith, then lowers his head and powers through contact, nearly scoring.

Rodriguez has shown good balance in recent games. He keeps his feet moving through arm tackles and remains difficult to bring down cleanly.

Even on negative runs, Rodriguez shows positive traits. DT Jalen Redmond breaks through immediately and hits Rodriguez on this off-tackle run. Rodriguez powers through the initial contact and stays balanced until DT Jonathan Allen finishes the play.

A Better Runner Than Fantasy Asset

Rodriguez is a strong runner who may be a better NFL player than fantasy option. His lack of receiving makes him difficult to use in PPR, but he could be useful this week against the Giants in non-PPR formats.

Rodriguez will hit restricted free agency after this season, and it remains unclear whether the Commanders will keep him. His short-yardage power could earn him a role elsewhere and make him intriguing in non-PPR leagues if he lands in a favorable situation.

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.