Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 15

             

Welcome to Week 15’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

Below you'll find the matchup data that we use when formulating those rankings. Taking a look through it will help you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 15 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 15!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Bills at Lions (54.5)
2. Rams at 49ers (48.5)
t-3. Packers at Seahawks (46.5)
t-3. Bengals at Titans (46.5)
t-5. Dolphins at Texans (46.0)
t-5. Patriots at Cardinals (46.0)
7. Buccaneers at Chargers (45.5)

         

Lowest Game Totals

11. Colts at Broncos (43.5)
t-12. Cowboys at Panthers (43.0)
t-12. Steelers at Eagles (43.0)
14. Ravens at Giants (42.5)
15. Chiefs at Browns (41.5)
16. Jets at Jaguars (40.5)

                 

Highest Implied Points

1. Ravens (29.5)
2. Lions (28.75)
3. Bills (26.25)
t-4. Cardinals (26.0)
t-4. Bengals (26.0)
6. 49ers (25.75)
t-7. Commanders (25.5)
t-7. Vikings (25.5)

     

Lowest Implied Points

27. Steelers (18.75)
t-28. Bears (18.5)
t-28. Jaguars (18.5)
t-28.Browns (18.5)
31. Saints (18.0)
32. Giants (13.5)

   

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Chiefs (65.9)
2. Commanders (64.8)
3. Lions (64.5)
4. Bengals (64.1)
5. Broncos (63.8)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Rams (61.2)
29. Saints (60.8)
30. Giants (60.6)
31. Packers (60.2)
32. Jaguars (58.2)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap over the last five weeks from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

       

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Ravens at Giants (23.5 seconds)
2. Chiefs at Browns (26.0 seconds)
3. Cowboys at Panthers (26.1 seconds)
4. Commanders at Saints (26.2 seconds)
5. Colts at Broncos (26.8 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

12. Bears at Vikings (28.7 seconds)
13. Buccaneers at Chargers (28.9 seconds)
14. Packers at Seahawks (30.3 seconds)
15. Dolphins at Texans (30.5 seconds)
16. Rams at 49ers (30.7 seconds)

        

Weather Concerns

Chiefs at Browns

The forecast calls for a 60% chance of rain with sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts up around 30 mph. That’s enough wind to impact the passing and kicking games. Throw in the likelihood of rain and we’re looking at tough conditions. We’ve bumped down our passing projections for both teams and would avoid the kickers from this game.

Bengals at Titans

Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts over 20 mph. That might end up impacting some deep passes and kicks, but we're not adjusting projections for this game.

Colts at Broncos

The forecast for this 4:25 pm ET kickoff currently calls for 15-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30+ early in the game. But the wind is expected to taper off by the second half. We'll keep an eye on this one, but we're not adjusting projections for now.

        

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Ravens at Giants (+88.8%)
2. Cardinals vs. Patriots (57.1%)
3. 49ers vs. Rams (+49.2%)
4. Jets at Jaguars (+42.6%)
t-5. Bengals at Titans (+40%)
t-5. Commanders at Saints (+40%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

t-28. Dolphins at Texans (-0.5%)
t-28. Giants vs. Ravens (-0.5%)
30. Patriots at Cardinals (-2.3%)
31. Browns vs. Chiefs (-10.4%)
32. Bears at Vikings (-13.7%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Justin Herbert vs. Buccaneers (+32%)
2. Aaron Rodgers at Jaguars (+30%)
3. Will Levis vs. Bengals (+21%)
4. Bryce Young vs. Cowboys (+20%)
5. Cooper Rush at Panthers (+18%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Sam Darnold vs. Bears (-17%)
29. Russell Wilson at Eagles (-17%)
30. C.J. Stroud vs. Dolphins (-18%)
31. Jared Goff vs. Bills (-19%)
32. Jalen Hurts vs. Steelers (-26%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Commanders at Saints (+12.9%)
2. Ravens at Giants (+8.0%)
3. Eagles vs. Steelers (+0.3%)
4. Saints vs. Commanders (-0.8%)
5. Falcons at Raiders (-1.1%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

28. Steelers at Eagles (-31.6%)
t-29. Browns vs. Chiefs (-35.4%)
t-29. Bears at Vikings (-35.4%)
31. Patriots at Cardinals (-35.7%)
32. Dolphins at Texans (-43.0%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Cowboys at Panthers (+37%)
2. Lions vs. Bills (+26%)
3. Jets at Jaguars (+20%)
4. Commanders at Saints (+15%)
5. Texans vs. Dolphins (+14%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Dolphins at Texans (-16%)
29. Bears at Vikings (-18%)
30. Steelers at Eagles (-20%)
31. Bills at Lions (-24%)
32. Browns vs. Chiefs (-36%)

     

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Raiders vs. Falcons (+26%)
2. Bears at Vikings (+24%)
3. Giants vs. Ravens (+20%)
4. Titans vs. Bengals (+16%)
5. Jets at Jaguars (+16%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Rams at 49ers (-13%)
29. Ravens at Giants (-14%)
30. Eagles vs. Steelers (-14%)
31. Vikings vs. Bears (-15%)
32. Steelers at Eagles (-19%)

         

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Jets WRs Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard vs. Jaguars CBs Tyson Campbell, Montaric Brown, and Jarrian Jones

Falcons WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Raiders CBs Decamerion Richardson, Jack Jones, and Darnay Holmes

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown vs. Saints WRs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor

Raiders WRs Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker vs. Falcons CBs A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes, and Dee Alford

Titans WRs Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Bengals CBs Cam Taylor-Britt and Josh Newton

Chiefs WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy vs. Browns CBs Martin Emerson, Denzel Ward, and Cameron Mitchell

Browns WR Elijah Moore vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Steelers CBs Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson, and Beanie Bishop

Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. 49ers CB Deommodore Lenoir

Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon

Colts WRs Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs vs. Broncos CBs Patrick Surtain, Levi Wallace, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Steelers WRs Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, and Calvin Austin vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay, and Cooper DeJean

 

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Broncos vs. Colts (+33%)
2. Cowboys at Panthers (+33%)
3. Chargers vs. Buccaneers (+26%)
4. Jets at Jaguars (+25%)
5. Seahawks vs. Packers (+24%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Lions vs. Bills (-26%)
29. Buccaneers at Chargers (-28%)
30. Rams at 49ers (-30%)
31. Ravens at Giants (-30%)
32. Bills at Lions (-32%)

     

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chiefs at Browns (+81%)
2. Ravens at Giants (+71%)
3. Falcons at Raiders (+68%)
4. Cardinals vs. Patriots (+63%)
5. Bengals at Titans (+56%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Saints vs. Commanders (-37%)
29. Seahawks vs. Packers (-43%)
30. Bills at Lions (-55%)
31. Lions vs. Bills (-66%)
32. Giants vs. Ravens (-79%)

    

       

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. Dolphins (+41%)
2. Younghoe Koo at Raiders (+33%)
3. Brandon Aubrey at Panthers (+24%)
4. Daniel Carlson vs. Falcons (+20%)
5. Joey Slye at Cardinals (+17%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Cairo Santos at Vikings (-22%)
29. Jake Bates vs. Bills (-22%)
30. Jason Myers (-23%)
31. Chase McLaughlin at Chargers (-27%)
32. Jake Elliott vs. Steelers (-28%)