Welcome to Week 15’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 15 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 15!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Rams (55.5)
2. Ravens at Bengals (51.5)
3. Bills at Patriots (49.5)
4. Vikings at Cowboys (47.5)
5. Commanders at Giants (47.0)

Lowest Game Totals

t-12. Jets at Jaguars (41.5)
t-12. Chargers at Chiefs (41.5)
14. Panthers at Saints (40.5)
15. Browns at Bears (39.5)
16. Raiders at Eagles (38.0)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Rams (30.75)
2. 49ers (28.5)
3. Seahawks (28.0)
4. Jaguars (27.0)
t-5. Ravens (26.5)
t-5. Cowboys (26.5)
7. Texans (26.0)
8. Bills (25.75)

Fewest Projected Points

27. Cardinals (16.5)
t-28. Browns (16.0)
t-28. Titans (16.0)
t-30. Jets (14.5)
t-30. Colts (14.5)
32. Raiders (13.5)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Cowboys (63.9)
2. Jaguars (63.8)
3. Texans (63.5)
t-4. Bears (63.3)
t-4. Giants (63.3)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Colts (59.6)
29. Titans (59.3)
30. Jets (58.7)
31. Steelers (58.6)
32. Raiders (57.7)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. We're now using pace from the last five weeks to get a fresher sample.

Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Lions at Rams (26.6 seconds)
2. Vikings at Cowboys (27.3 seconds)
3. Ravens at Bengals (27.3 seconds)
4. Browns at Bears (27.4 seconds)
5. Commanders at Giants (27.5 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

12. Bills at Patriots (28.8 seconds)
13. Raiders at Eagles (29.1 seconds)
14. Colts at Seahawks (29.5 seconds)
15. Titans at 49ers (29.8 seconds)
16. Dolphins at Steelers (29.9 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. 49ers vs. Titans (+62.2%)
2. Jaguars vs. Jets (+48.4%)
3. Ravens at Bengals (+47.2%)
4. Seahawks vs. Colts (+46.4%)
5. Bills at Patriots (+46.1%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

28. Titans at 49ers (-6.6%)
29. Cardinals at Texans (-11.4%)
30. Browns at Bears (-13.7%)
31. Jets at Jaguars (-16.9%)
32. Raiders at Eagles (-24.8%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. J.J. McCarthy at Cowboys (+39.4%)
2. Lamar Jackson at Bengals (+37.0%)
3. Jaxson Dart vs. Commanders (+17.7%)
4. Matt Stafford vs. Lions (+16.4%)
5. Shedeur Sanders at Bears (+16.0%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Patrick Mahomes vs. Chargers (-16.3%)
29. Tyler Shough vs. Panthers (-17.3%)
30. Dak Prescott vs. Vikings (-19.5%)
31. Jordan Love at Broncos (-23.1%)
32. Jacoby Brissett at Texans (-32.8%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Commanders at Giants (+12.8%)
2. Ravens at Bengals (+6.1%)
3. Vikings at Cowboys (+2.0%)
4. Rams vs. Lions (+1.7%)
5. Bills at Patriots (+0.4%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

28. Packers at Broncos (-19.0%)
29. Chargers at Chiefs (-20.5%)
30. Jets at Jaguars (-25.4%)
31. Cardinals at Texans (-33.6%)
32. Raiders at Eagles (-37.1%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ravens vs. Bengals (+38.4%)
2. Commanders at Giants (+34.6%)
3. Vikings at Cowboys (+24.9%)
4. Eagles vs. Raiders (+19.1%)
5. Patriots vs. Bills (+13.8%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Broncos vs. Packers (-14.2%)
29. Chargers at Chiefs (-17.5%)
30. Bills at Patriots (-21.9%)
31. Lions at Rams (-23.2%)
32. Rams vs. Lions (-24.3%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Vikings at Cowboys (+35.6%)
2. Rams vs. Lions (+27.1%)
3. Browns at Bears (+22.1%)
4. Seahawks vs. Colts (+20.4%)
5. Bills at Patriots (+15.5%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Chiefs vs. Chargers (-15.1%)
29. Raiders at Eagles (-16.0%)
30. Packers at Broncos (-18.1%)
31. Cardinals at Texans (-19.8%)
32. Cowboys vs. Vikings (-23.6%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Lions CBs D.J. Reed, Rock Ya-Sin, and Amik Robertson

Seahawks WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed vs. Colts CBs Jaylon Jones, Mekhi Blackmon, and Kenny Moore

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland, Shavon Revel, and Reddy Steward

Giants WRs Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Isaiah Hodgins vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Jonathan Jones, and Noah Igbinoghene

49ers WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall vs. Titans CBs Darrell Baker, Marcus Harris, and Kevin Winston

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel vs. Giants Paulson Adebo, Cordale Flott, and Andru Phillips

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Cardinals WR Michael Wilson vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Bengals CB D.J. Turner

Packers WRs Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed vs. Broncos Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton, Pat Bryant, and Troy Franklin vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, and Javon Bullard

Colts WRs Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ravens at Bengals (+97.0%)
2. Steelers vs. Dolphins (+27.2%)
3. Giants vs. Commanders (+26.9%)
4. Dolphins at Steelers (+26.0%)
5. Jets at Jaguars (+18.3%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Cardinals at Texans (-27.4%)
29. Raiders at Eagles (-31.7%)
30. Buccaneers vs. Falcons (-34.3%)
31. Eagles vs. Raiders (-36.1%)
32. Patriots vs. Bills (-42.4%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bears vs. Browns (+89.7%)
2. Cowboys vs. Vikings (+78.1%)
3. Eagles vs. Raiders (+70.9%)
4. Panthers at Saints (48.2%)
5. 49ers vs. Titans (+39.1%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Vikings at Cowboys (-40.5%)
29. Broncos vs. Packers (-50.9%)
30. Seahawks vs. Colts (-56.5%)
31. Lions at Rams (-59.1%)
32. Rams vs. Lions (-59.3%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Cam Little vs. Jets (+38.4%)
2. Evan McPherson vs. Ravens (+29.7%)
3. Will Reichard at Cowboys (+22.8%)
4. Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. Cardinals (+21.9%)
5. Chase McLaughlin vs. Falcons (+18.5%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

28. Matt Prater at Patriots (-15.2%)
29. Joey Slye at 49ers (-27.9%)
30. Blake Grupe at Seahawks (-32.0%)
31. Nick Folk at Jaguars (-37.0%)
32. Chad Ryland at Texans (-43.2%)