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5 Rookie Prospects NFL Scouts Were Wrong About

NFL teams get it wrong. A lot.

D’Wayne Eskridge, Treylon Burks, Tyrion Davis-Price, Jalin Hyatt, and Jonathan Mingo are just a few top-100 picks who never delivered.

Meanwhile, Day 3 picks like Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Khalil Shakir were repeatedly passed over.

The 2025 draft will feature its own over- and under-drafted players.

Savvy managers can capitalize on draft capital overreactions.

Our SHARK rookie model helps identify players the NFL overlooked.

It evaluates players on Analytics, Film, College Production, Athleticism, and Agreement factor. Draft capital is also incorporated in the final model score.

Players with high film scores often overcome Day 3 draft capital to make fantasy impacts.

If those players also ranked higher in other categories than where the NFL took them, then they were under-drafted and overlooked by NFL scouts.

Conversely, players our model rated lower — but who rose due to draft capital — could be busts. NFL scouts over-drafted those players, increasing their likelihood of busting.

Let’s dig into where NFL scouts got it wrong this year.

Isaac TeSlaa: Drafted High, Despite Low Output

WRs with just 28 catches in a full 13-game season rarely get drafted.

They certainly don’t go in the early third round.

Yet the Lions took TeSlaa with the sixth pick of Round 3 — trading pick #102 and two future third-rounders to obtain the pick. 

They were captivated by the 6'4, 214-pound WR who ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and crushed the Combine.

But eye-popping measurables rarely make up for poor on-field production.

Why the NFL Drafted Him — and Why Our Model Wasn’t Sold

TeSlaa ranked first in our rookie model with a 9.2 Athleticism Score. That score, along with his draft capital, propped him up to 10th among the WR class with a score of 6.86.

But before the draft, he ranked 33rd among Combine WRs, even with the top athleticism score.

Why? His Production score (0.6) ranks 31st among the 32 WRs. He also was 28th among 32 WRs on film score (2.7). 

TeSlaa didn’t produce — and his film didn’t impress either.

He ranked 17th of the 32 in Analytics (4.7) and was only one of two drafted WRs with a low agreement factor. 

That means some experts loved him, others hated him.

You Can’t Coach Targets — and He Barely Got Any

TeSlaa played three seasons at Division II Hillsdale to start his college career. This did give him an early breakout age at 19.3, but the level of competition was subpar.

His athleticism attracted SEC schools who courted TeSlaa in a transfer. He went to Arkansas for two seasons.

He ranked second behind UDFA WR Andrew Armstrong in receiving yards both seasons.

The athleticism and body control are evident on film, but TeSlaa clearly won at Hillsdale just on those traits. That approach didn’t translate well to SEC competition.

That showed up in his other stats. In terms of Combine WRs, TeSlaa ranked 49th in 2024 Target Share at 8.9% and 35th in PFF Receiving Grade with a 70.5.

Don’t Be the Next to Chase a Mirage

NFL coaches often believe they can 'fix' raw athletes who lack polish.

They usually can’t.

Historical examples like Breshad Perriman, Chase Claypool and Miles Boykin ranked similarly to TeSlaa in both athleticism and production. They all showed flashes, but never became dominant fantasy WRs.  

Spending a 2025 third and two 2026 thirds to chase a 'fix him' WR will likely prove costly.

Avoid the same mistake in your rookie drafts.

TeSlaa’s ADP is climbing into Round 3 as drafters chase his upside. Let someone else take the bait.

Seattle Seahawks: Crushing Day 3 with Analytics-Approved Picks

Seattle nailed Day 3 with some of the best value picks.

They took three skill players that we identified as under-drafted based on our model and their advanced analytics.

GM John Schneider has often aligned with the fantasy community on his approach to RBs and WRs, including players like Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

This year, he scored some more late-round gems. 

Tory Horton: Built to Beat His Draft Capital

Horton drew Day 2 buzz before the draft, but medical concerns clouded his stock. A knee injury in his final season at Colorado State likely contributed to his fall to the fifth round, where the Seahawks snatched him up.

He posted back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons in 2022 and 2023 and was on pace for a third before the injury.

His 4.41-second 40 time at 6’3 and 196 pounds proved his NFL athleticism as well.

He certainly has the traits to outperform his draft positions

All Signs Point to a Draft-Day Steal

Though he was the 23rd WR drafted, Horton ranks 14th among drafted WRs in our Rookie Model with a 6.40.

His film score (5.1) ranked fifth among drafted WRs. That is ahead of higher draft picks like Matthew Golden and Jayden Higgins. 

It’s clear watching Horton’s healthy games why he ranked so highly. His athleticism and physicality jump off the tape as NFL ready, even when playing against better competition.

All of Horton’s other model scores exceed his draft slot.

Among drafted WRs, Horton ranked:

• 14th in Analytics (5.0)
• 17th in Athleticism (5.8)
• 17th in Production (3.8)

If Horton’s knee fully heals, he’s well-positioned to outperform his draft capital.

His competition for the No. 3 WR job includes Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Bobo, and Steven Sims. Instant impact isn’t out of the question.

Grab Horton if he slips to Round 4 of your rookie draft.

Damien Martinez: Slipped in the Draft, Not in Ability

The longer Day 3 went, the more puzzling Martinez’s fall became.

At only 18 years old, he finished top-five in the country in rushing yards by a freshman with 982.

He followed that with two straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Oregon State and Miami.

Given his production, size, and athleticism, he should have gone much earlier than Round 7.

The issue? Maturity concerns.

Brett Kollmann of Bootleg Football cited Martinez’s 2023 DUI and abrupt transfer to Miami due to car payment issues on his NFL Draft live stream.

He ultimately went in Round 7 as the 20th RB drafted.

Maturity concerns created value for Seattle — and a potential miss for NFL scouts.

Power, Production, and Youth in One Undervalued Back

Martinez continues the trend of the Seahawks taking skill players who ranked highly in our film model score, a potential indicator of late-round success.

He ranked ninth among drafted RBs with a 4.9 film score.

He's also a plus athlete. At 6’0, 217 pounds, Martinez ran a 4.51 40, giving him a 104.9 speed score. That ranked 12th among RBs at the Combine.

He used that size and speed well, gaining 4.51 yards after contact per attempt in 2024. That ranks only behind Ashton Jeanty in the entire RB class.

Breaking tackles helped earn Martinez a 94.3 PFF Grade in 2024, third among Combine RBs.

Martinez becomes a nightmare to tackle cleanly with his size and explosion. His film and advanced analytics screams NFL contributor.

He outperformed his draft position among RBs in every aspect of our model:

• 15th model score pre-draft (6.56)
• 18th model score post-draft (6.33)
• 10th in College Production (5.0)
• 11th in Analytics (4.8)
• 18th in Athleticism (3.8)

Martinez’s pass-catching profile looks weak, but he showcased natural hands at the NFL Combine in drills. 

He is also young. He turned 21 in January, the fifth youngest RB drafted.

NFL teams will likely regret passing on him until the seventh round. If Martinez falls to Round 4+ of your rookie drafts, grab him as a stash.

Kenneth Walker is a free agent after this season, and Zach Charbonnet will be a free agent after the 2026 campaign.

If even one of them doesn’t re-sign and Martinez sticks on the roster, he could be fantasy relevant. 

Ricky White: When the Numbers Say Yes but the Stopwatch Says No

The box score alone shows why White was under-drafted: 88 catches for 1,483 yards and 8 TDs in 2023 and 79 grabs for 1,041 yards and 11 TDs in 2024.

He even led all Combine WRs with a 40.7% target share in 2024.

Defenders knew the ball was coming his way, but he still got open and made plays.

His one wart, outside of level of competition at UNLV, is White’s athleticism.

At 6’1 and 184 pounds, White only ran a 4.61-second 40. Being small and slow hurt his draft stock — but the Seahawks may have landed a third steal at pick 22 of Round 7.

Don’t Let Athleticism Blind You to a PPR Sleeper

White ranks 25th among the 32 drafted WRs in our Rookie Model post-draft with a 5.90 score, but was 16th pre-draft with a 6.24 score.

His draft capital dropped him, but being the 28th WR off the board, he still scores higher than his draft position.

White ranked third among drafted WRs in production score (5.6), ahead of Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden.

He also ranked 16th among drafted WRs in film score (4.1). So the bones of film and production are there for White to stick on a roster.

The poor workouts did knock him down in athleticism (1.4) and analytic score (3.5), ranking 31st in both.

White began at Michigan State before transferring to UNLV.

He actually had a dominant game against Michigan as a true freshman in 2020, catching eight passes for 196 yards and a TD. 

He has talent, even with the poor athleticism.

We comped him to Hunter Renfrow in our Rookie Guide,  a player who overcame poor athleticism to become a reliable PPR option.

As noted with Horton, the Seahawks WR depth chart leaves a lot to be desired. If Cooper Kupp’s tenure is short term, White could compete for that slot role.

He’s a long-term stash in deep dynasty leagues with upside to contribute in a year or two.

Devin Neal: Big 12 Workhorse, Round 6 Bargain

4,343 rushing yards and 49 TDs over four years playing in the Big 12 should turn the heads of NFL scouts. Instead, the Saints scooped him up with the eighth pick of Round 6.

After getting some Day 2 buzz predraft, Neal ended up as the 17th RB to be drafted. His metrics suggest he should’ve gone earlier.

Before the draft, he ranked ninth among RBs in our rookie model and fell to 17th with draft capital included.

Consistent production, NFL size, and solid receiving film point to a future contributor.

His one red flag was speed: He ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at 5’11 and 213 pounds.

If that’s what sank him, NFL scouts got it wrong again.

A Bell Cow with the Numbers to Back It Up

Neal ranked seventh in college production (5.6) and 11th in film score (4.7) — well ahead of his draft slot.

His film and production signal upside, as Kevin pointed out in our dynasty value profile. 

Neal was a true bell cow at Kansas, excelling both between the tackles and as a receiver. It led to him racking up the most career rushing yards in Jayhawk history.

That production helped rank him 15th in Analytic score (4.3)

The 40 time gave him a mediocre 96.8 speed score, which ranked just 19th among Combine RBs. It also led to him ranking 23rd in our model for athleticism (2.8).

But he fared well in several advanced metrics among drafted RBs:

• 8th in 2024 PFF Grade (90.5)
• 8th in Target Share (9.9%)
• 8th in yards per route run (1.3)

His profile suggests he can contribute in the NFL.

Don’t Sleep on Neal’s Path to Playing Time

Neal’s Round 6 fall was surprising, but the Saints scooped him up. A brand new coaching staff led by HC Kellen Moore makes the fit intriguing as well.

Of course, Alvin Kamara remains the lead back. But he turns 30 this year after battling groin issues in 2024. Kendre Miller, a 2023 third-rounder, remains on the roster. But he hasn’t been able to stay healthy enough to get a shot at contributing.

Neal will compete for a roster spot with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jordan Mims, and WR-turned-RB Velus Jones Jr. 

That's a battle Neal can win. He has the toughness and experience to capitalize on any opportunity.

Make sure he is a target in the fourth round of rookie drafts.

Bolster Your Roster With The Dynasty Trade Calculator

If you missed out on any of these potential sleepers, check out our Dynasty Trade Calculator to swing a deal for them. 

It starts with precise player values, fueled by our 3D+ Value algorithm. Then it evaluates your team — and every other team in your league — to find the best trade partners and trade targets for your squad.

Learn more about our entire suite of dynasty tools in this short video:

Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC, and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.