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Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Tiers 2025

Move Up, Trade Down, or Stay Put? Let the Tiers Guide You

Are you wondering whether you should move up, trade down ... or even just sit tight in your dynasty rookie draft?

Well, this article is built to help you figure that out.

We've divided three rounds worth of rookie picks for superflex drafts into tiers to show not only where moving around might make the most sense, but also to help let you know what you're likely getting with a player from a given tier.

Check out our Superflex Dynasty Rookie Rankings to go even deeper. And if you are looking to trade, let the Dynasty Trade Value Charts help you get started.

Tier 1: Rare RB Talent Deserving of the Top Pick

1.01

• Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders

Jeanty stands alone this year as one of the top RB prospects of the past decade.

He joins a Raiders team shifting toward a run-heavy approach under HC Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly.

Jeanty should step into a three-down role and deliver consistent fantasy production from Week 1, after Vegas drafted him sixth overall.

Even in Superflex leagues, Jeanty offers rare positional value and long-term security -- regardless of your roster needs.

Tier 2: Immediate Difference Makers with Long-Term Upside

1.02-1.05

• Cam Ward, QB, Titans
• Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Panthers
• Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers
• Travis Hunter, WR, Jaguars

This next tier should still offer Week 1 fantasy value this season.

Both McMillan and Hunter will start and command targets, with the after-catch ability to generate big plays and spike weeks.

We prefer McMillan to Hunter in our dynasty rookie rankings, but either provides immediate and long-term benefits.

Hampton may split carries with Najee Harris early, but the Chargers didn’t spend Round 1 capital just to keep him in a timeshare.

Hampton’s size and pass-catching skills give him true three-down upside.

Don’t Ignore the Top QB

Early rookie drafts have found many managers passing on Ward early in Round 1, a surprising ADP trend given the current fantasy QB landscape.

Don’t be scared off by this QB class garnering less hype than previous editions. Ward has an NFL-caliber arm, improvisational flair, and underrated rushing upside.

The Titans boast a top-tier O-line and a true WR1 in Calvin Ridley. Plus, HC Brian Callahan helped make Joe Burrow a fantasy star in Cincinnati.

If you need a QB in this range, don’t overthink it—take the shot on Ward.

Tier 3: Dynamic Talents with Question Marks

1.06-1.09

• TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots
• Quinshon Judkins, RB, Browns
• Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers
• Jaxson Dart, QB, Giants

This tier offers talented prospects with minor red flags that keep them out of the top two levels.

The former Ohio State RBs are a step down from Jeanty and Hampton, but they present enough talent to earn lead roles.

Judkins profiles as more of a three-down back, though we'll see how much receiving work he gets. Henderson offers more in the passing game but could lose carries to Rhamondre Stevenson.

Egbuka faces the opposite challenge, competing with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in a crowded WR room. 

But the Buccaneers didn’t invest a first-round pick to sit Egbuka on the bench. It might take time, but Egbuka’s talent will emerge.

Should You Trust a Late First-Round QB?

The track record for late first-round QBs is shaky at best.

Here is every QB drafted 20-32 since the NFL went to 32 teams:

• Kenny Pickett (2022)
• Jordan Love (2020)
• Lamar Jackson (2018)
• Paxton Lynch (2016)
• Johnny Manziel (2014)
• Teddy Bridgewater (2014)
• Brandon Weeden (2012)
• Tim Tebow (2010)
• Brady Quinn (2007)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005)
• Jason Campbell (2005)
• JP Losman (2004)
• Rex Grossman (2003)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002)

Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers hit big. Jordan Love appears on his way to a nice career.

But most of the names on that list are cautionary tales.

Does that make Dart likely to bust? Maybe not.

NFL hesitation on Dart likely stemmed from Ole Miss’ unique, QB-friendly scheme. HC Lane Kiffin is notorious for limiting the decisions his QB has to make with reads scripted before the snap.

However, reports suggest Dart was given more freedom than past Rebels QBs.

His rushing upside adds fantasy appeal. Manziel and Tebow count as busts from that group above, but they scored some early fantasy points with their legs.

Dart’s mobility pairs well with Brian Daboll’s rollout-heavy, play-action system built for mobile QBs to do their best work.

There’s risk, but Dart could be the late-first QB who beats the odds.

Tier 4: High Ceilings, Higher Risk

1.10-2.03

• Colston Loveland, TE, Bears
• Tyler Warren, TE, Colts
• Matthew Golden, WR, Packers
• Kaleb Johnson, RB, Steelers
• Luther Burden, WR, Bears
• RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos

This tier delivers big upside -- but with even bigger bust potential.

The top two TEs boast top-15 draft capital, a rarity at the position.

New HC Ben Johnson handpicked Loveland to play a Sam LaPorta-like role. But, Johnson also picked Burden in Round 2. With D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift already in the mix, targets could be hard to come by.

Warren could start right away, but the run-heavy Anthony Richardson offense limits his target upside. Perhaps Daniel Jones gets the nod or the Colts find a new QB next year and Warren fulfills his top-5 dynasty upside.

Or maybe the Colts continue to struggle at QB and undercut Warren's usefulness. 

Golden earned Round 1 capital but joins a spread-it-around offense that might cap his weekly. Will his 4.29 40-time make him a dominant WR1?

Johnson and Harvey have open paths to their teams' starting RB job. But neither profiled as a true three-down option heading into draft.

There will likely be stars that emerge from this tier, but the bust potential will likely hit on one or two of them as well.

Ideally, moving back from the late first into the early second, to the end of this tier, is the best play. Adding a lottery ticket third-rounder or future pick and still ending up  with a high-ceiling RB or WR will make the biggest impact. 

Tier 5: Long Shots Today, Starters Tomorrow?

2.04-2.12

• Tyler Shough, QB, Saints
• Jayden Higgins, WR, Texans
• Tre Harris, WR, Chargers
• Jalen Milroe, QB, Seahawks
• Jack Bech, WR, Raiders
• Kyle Williams, WR, Patriots
• Jaylin Noel, WR, Texans
• Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jaguars
• Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants

This tier has upside, but no Round 1 NFL Draft picks. Some guys didn't go until Day 3, meaning they'll need to flash quickly to earn a roster foothold.

Several WRs land in favorable spots with a shot at immediate playing time. Higgins, Harris, and Williams could start on the outside for the Texans, Chargers, and Patriots, respectively. Bech and Noel will have the opportunity to earn immediate playing time as well.

Tuten and Skattebo could see early touches despite their Day 3 draft capital. Skattebo could secure a two-down role over 2024 fifth-round pick Tyrone Tracy.

Tuten has an opportunity to rise like Bucky Irving last year, especially with Travis Etienne in the final year of his rookie contract and a new coaching staff on hand.

But Day 3 hit rates for RBs are less than desirable. Even if they flash as rookies, regression is common in Year 2, as we outlined in our dynasty trade targets.

We have this tier pretty tightly packed, so feel free to draft your favorite upside play of the tier.

Sitting on Upside QBs

Milroe might be the best rushing QB prospect since Lamar Jackson. He lands in Seattle, where he can develop behind Sam Darnold before potentially earning a starting role. Milroe has true QB1 upside, but his Day 2 draft capital means there's no guarantee he gets a shot.

Shough got drafted inside the top 50 by a Saints team with an immediate QB need. His 4.63 speed adds rushing appeal, though he’ll need to clean up inconsistent throwing mechanics.

In superflex, chasing QB upside can backfire -- but it can also uncover the next Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott.

Tier 6: Lottery Tickets Needing Patience and Luck

3.01-3.12

• Elijah Arroyo, TE, Seahawks
• Mason Taylor, TE, Jets
• Dylan Sampson, RB, Browns
• Pat Bryant, WR, Broncos
• Elic Ayomanor, WR, Titans
• Jalen Royals, WR, Chiefs
• Tory Horton, WR, Seahawks
• Jaydon Blue, RB, Cowboys
• DJ Giddens, RB, Colts
• Terrance Ferguson, TE, Rams
• Trevor Etienne, RB, Panthers
• Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Browns

Most Round 3 rookie picks will flame out fast, but a few could deliver surprise value.

The RBs here don’t find easy paths to playing time. Giddens and Etienne land behind established veterans and will need to earn early roles. Blue enters a more open Dallas backfield but will also compete with experienced veterans.

Sampson got drafted more than two rounds after Judkins, making him more developmental than his new teammate.

The WRs present raw talent and situations that could offer playing time. 

Sean Payton compared Bryant to Michael Thomas, but Bryant will need to beat out Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, and/or Devaughn Vele to get on the field.

Royals is likely stuck behind star Rashee Rice, but a potential suspension could earn Royals an opportunity to showcase his after-catch talents.

Horton and Ayomanor enter open situations, but both need to show they are polished enough to earn immediate snaps.

No WR here looks like an instant contributor. But they are stash-and-hope plays with Year 2 upside.

Second TE Tier Presents Intrigue

After the top two TEs, there’s a wide tier of prospects with decent draft capital and opportunity. So which one do you draft?

We lean toward Arroyo, even though he posted just one strong college season. Injuries limited him early, but his athleticism and WR-type skills could mean big fantasy points.

Taylor finds a clearer path to an early starting role, but his strong blocking could limit his target volume. His floor should be high with the Jets' lack of receiving options, but his ceiling may sit merely in high-TE2 territory.

Ferguson and Fannin present upside arguments, especially in the long term.

HC Sean McVay compared Ferguson to his former TE Chris Cooley, who had a solid fantasy career. Ferguson fits the offense well with his athleticism and expertise in running some of McVay's favorite routes.

Fannin’s record-breaking college career earned him third-round draft capital. The situation may appear bleak, but TE David Njoku only has one year left on his deal.

A year of development could help Fannin clean up his weak route running. If you have room to stash a TE, stash one of these later options.

More Winning Dynasty Strategy

Want more tips for winning your dynasty league now and into the future? Check out this video ...

Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC, and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.