Don't Trust the Box Score: Devin Neal Showed He Can Be Kamara’s Stand-In

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Devin Neal, RB, New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara sprained his right MCL early in the Saints' Week 12 loss to Atlanta. After Kamara left the game, Neal played 57 of the team's final 66 snaps and was the only RB to receive a carry or target (not counting Taysom Hill).

Neal went 7-18-0 on the ground. As a receiver, he went 5-43-0 on 7 targets. The box score wasn’t impressive, but Neal’s performance showed a back who could carry the load if Kamara misses time.

On this play, Neal runs to the flat and turns around with open field in front of him. Shough throws the ball slightly upfield, forcing Neal to adjust. He makes the catch and turns upfield for an 18-yard gain.

Neal wasn’t asked to do much receiving in college, but he looked natural in this game. His ability to catch an inaccurate pass and turn upfield in one motion is impressive. It makes him a good fit for the Kamara role if the veteran misses time.

Neal sneaks out of the backfield through the line for a checkdown. He accelerates toward the sideline, then turns upfield around LB Kaden Elliss to pick up an extra 10 yards.

Again, Neal reads the defense on the fly to take the right angle.

Neal wasn’t as effective running the ball, but he showed promising vision and cutting ability. On this play, he presses the developing hole, cuts into daylight, and finishes with physicality. He shows potential to pick up consistent yardage.

Neal’s Skill Set Beginning to Take Shape

Neal showcased natural pass catching similar to Kamara. He bailed Tyler Shough out on several throws and turned them into bigger gains.

Though the Saints’ O-line didn’t provide much rushing room, Neal played with a low pad level to create a bit more than what was blocked. He isn’t on Kamara’s level yet, but the signs point to him producing.

He should be considered a flex play in PPR and is more intriguing in dynasty leagues with the potential for a second-year leap.

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans

Marks delivered a decent fantasy outing in Thursday night's win over the Bills. The rookie carried 16 times for 74 yards, good for 4.6 yards per rush.

He continues to control backfield work. He played 73% of the snaps vs. Buffalo and handled 73% of RB carries. Marks has racked up 48 attempts on a 68% share over the last three weeks.

The shift from Nick Chubb to Marks is evident on film, with Marks’ burst and athleticism overshadowing the older Chubb. Marks also brings improving vision and contact balance that should keep him in position to lead the backfield for the rest of the season and possibly beyond.

On this third-and-2, Marks shifts away from penetration and lowers his head to pick up the first down. As three defenders make contact, he keeps his feet moving and stays balanced. He gets turned around but backs into a 3-yard gain.

Marks struggled with contact balance early in the season, but this play shows his improvement.

Marks nearly scores on this play, showing burst on an outside zone. He accelerates through contact for a 19-yard gain. S Jordan Poyer catches him at the 6, preventing the TD.

At the pitch, Marks keeps his eyes upfield and reads his blocks to find the best angle. The blocking seals off the second level, and Marks does the rest.

On this play, Marks’ improved vision stands out. As he takes the handoff, he reads penetration on the outside zone and cuts upfield to avoid the LB, shrugging off contact for a 12-yard gain.

Early in the season, Marks hit the scripted hole no matter what, often resulting in little to no gain. His improved vision and balance have likely helped motivate to his workload growth. He looks like a veteran with the nuances added to his game.

From Average Prospect to Emerging Contributor

Marks’ college rushing profile was mediocre. He never handled more than 55% of his team’s attempts in a season. He ran a 4.54-second 40 time at the NFL Combine and posted a 6.66 Relative Athletic Score, 17th among 26 RBs who tested.

His NFL film, though, shows improvement from his lackluster college production. His burst and acceleration are NFL caliber, while his vision and balance improve nearly every week.

When the Texans hand the ball off, it’s easy to see within a second whether Marks or Chubb got the carry. Marks’ athleticism jumps off the screen compared to Chubb.

He caught one pass for minus-5 yards in this game, but receiving was his biggest strength as a prospect. The Texans would be wise to give him more work there while maintaining his enhanced rushing role.

John Metchie, WR, New York Jets

Some Jet has to catch the football while Garrett Wilson’s on IR. Metchie filled the void in Week 12, going 6-65-1 on seven targets. Be cautious before plugging Metchie into a lineup, though.

With Tyrod Taylor starting over Justin Fields, the passing game has improved. But the talent gap at WR remains. The Jets traded for Metchie and Adonai Mitchell near the deadline.

Metchie played 51 of 59 snaps (86.4%) and led the team with 31 routes Sunday. Mitchell played 50 snaps (84.7%) and ranked second with 29 routes, but he went only 2-42-0.

Despite the stronger box score, Metchie’s film looked worse than Mitchell’s. The Jets’ scheme helped create his opportunities, but he will struggle as teams adjust.

On this play, the Jets run a pick concept to shield S Malaki Starks from Metchie. The receiver cuts on an in-breaking route and catches a wide-open pass. He turns upfield for a 19-yard gain.

This is well-designed, with no contact made on Starks. So the pick is legal. Metchie executes the angle after the catch, but the play works because of the design, not his talent.

On this curl route, the CB shades inside before the snap. Metchie should read that and break his curl outside to give Taylor an outside-shoulder window. Taylor reads it and throws outside, but Metchie turns inside.

That type of mental miss leads to an incompletion.

Metchie also struggled to separate. On this drag route, his burst and physicality off the line aren’t enough for Taylor to hit him in stride.

Metchie appears to be the checkdown read, but Taylor stays with his first read instead.

Don’t Confuse Volume With a Breakout for Metchie

Metchie benefits from the lack of proven receiving options. Despite his issues with separation and mental lapses, he still earned targets from Taylor. The scheme helped with plays designed to get him open.

But don’t expect a career breakthrough. He lacks the core traits of a starting WR. He doesn’t have the explosion off the line to beat above-average NFL CBs, and his mental mistakes won’t secure him a role beyond this season.

Next Up

Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 13: Lamar Jackson Challenges the Buy Call

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.