Fantasy Football Injuries: The Ailing Players To Target And Fade In Drafts

Nothing can wreck a fantasy season like injuries.

But injuries also present opportunity. We can gain an edge over our competition by having a better understanding of injuries, how long they’ll keep players out, and how they’ll impact performance upon return.

That’s why we have Tyler Smola -- a Doctor of Physical Therapy with more than a decade of sports medicine experience -- to break down what these injuries really mean for fantasy managers.

Tyler separates rumor from reality, explains timelines, and gives you the performance outlook you need to make sharper fantasy draft decisions.

Fantasy Football Injuries: QBs

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Injury: ACL, LCL tear (Dec. 14)
Surgery: ACL and LCL reconstruction (Dec. 15)
Outlook: Yes, you read that right. Mahomes had surgery the day after his injury. That’s extremely rare. 

Two reasons this could have been done: 

1. To give him every possible second to be ready for Week 1 next season.
2. Due to concern involving a nerve or blood vessel. 

Either way, all reports out of Kansas City indicate the surgery was successful, and the team is hopeful Mahomes can return for the 2026 opener.

Typically, the minimum recovery timeline following an ACL reconstruction is around nine months. The LCL injury shouldn’t add much additional time for a QB. 

Mahomes’ position gives him a fairly strong chance of being ready for Week 1 and a high probability of returning by Week 6 at the latest. 

Expect a significant drop in rushing output throughout next season. But by year two, the impact on overall performance should be minimal.

For perspective, a RB with the same injury would not be expected back until mid to late in the season.

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Injury: Elbow dislocation, hamstring strain, knee PCL sprain
Surgery: No surgery
Outlook: Daniels sprained his knee in Week 2 and missed the next two games. In Week 7, he strained his hamstring and missed one game. In Week 9, he dislocated his elbow and missed four games, then re-injured the elbow and did not return for the remainder of the season. 

None of these injuries pose any significant risk heading into next season, and we should expect Daniels to be at full strength in Week 1.

That said, taken together, this injury history does raise some concern about his durability moving forward.

Daniel Jones, Colts

Injury: Achilles rupture (Dec. 4)
Surgery: Right Achilles repair (Dec. 9)
Outlook: Some good news and some bad news. 

The good news is that all signs point to a successful surgery, and playing QB gives Jones the best chance to return next season. The bad news is the Achilles rupture occurred late in the season, giving him only about nine months to be ready for Week 1.

Everything will need to go perfectly for Jones to be available in Week 1. And even if he is, expect a significant decrease in rushing output throughout next season. 

By two years removed from surgery, the impact on his rushing ability should be minimal.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Injury: Lisfranc injury (mid foot sprain)
Surgery: No surgery
Outlook: Murray was shut down after Week 5, giving him nearly 11 months to be ready for next season. This should be ample time for recovery, barring any significant setbacks. 

If all goes well, there should be minimal impact on both his rushing and passing performance next season.

Bo Nix, Broncos

Injury: Ankle fracture (Jan. 17)
Surgery: Open reduction internal fixation (Jan. 20)
Outlook: Nix went down at the very end of Denver’s Divisional Round win over the Bills and missed the AFC Championship.

HC Sean Payton later revealed that Nix has had three surgeries on his right ankle – with the first coming when he was in high school and the second at Auburn in 2021.

Rehab is tyically 3-6 months following this injury. Expect Nix to start Week 1 with a minimal drop in his rushing output.

Michael Penix, Falcons

Injury: Left ACL tear (Nov. 16)
Surgery: ACL Reconstruction (Nov. 25)
Outlook: This is Penix’s third ACL tear. He previously tore his right twice in college. He’s had five of his last eight seasons ended by injury.

Penix has approximately a 50/50 chance to be ready for Week 1 and a very high probability of returning next season barring a re-tear during his recovery. 

Making it back on the field is step one. Staying on the field is possibly the much harder step two for Penix next year.

Cam Ward, Titans

Injury: Right shoulder AC joint sprain (Jan. 4)
Surgery: None
Outlook: Ward suffered a grade 3 AC joint sprain (separated shoulder) in Week 18. 

The bad news is it was late in the year and will impact his offseason conditioning and throwing program. He likely will not be back throwing for another two months. 

The good news is he should have no issue getting back for Week 1 next season will little to no effect on performance.

Fantasy Football Injuries: RBs

Quinshon Judkins, Browns

Injury: Dislocated ankle, fibula fracture (Dec. 21)
Surgery: Fibula ORIF, ankle ligament reconstruction or repair (Dec. 23)
Outlook: The fibula fracture will be healed and ready for rehab in February, but it’s the ligament damage that will slow Judkins’ recovery. 

He’ll likely miss some time in the spring but will be ready for Week 1, barring a setback (which happened with Chris Godwin in the same situation). 

Expect Judkins to be at 80-90% to start next season.

Cam Skattebo, Giants

Injury: Fibula fracture, ruptured deltoid ligament, dislocated ankle (Oct. 26)
Surgery: Fibula ORIF, Deltoid (ankle) ligament repair/reconstruction (Oct. 26)
Outlook: This is similar to the Judkins situation, except Skattebo has an extra two months to play with. 

Reports out of New York indicate Skattebo has been cleared to start jogging. This is still a ways away from return to sport, but expect him to be back on the field at not quite 100% come Week 1.

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks

Injury: ACL tear (Jan. 17)
Surgery: ACL Reconstruction 
Outlook: Charbonnet likely underwent ACL reconstruction surgery in late January, which would give him a little over seven months to be ready for Week 1. 

The most likely scenario is a October or November return with a gradual progression of snaps when he returns. Expect a 20% production drop next year with no effect the year following.

Remember: Once an athlete tears an ACL, they are much more likely to tear the same or opposite side in the future.

Jonathon Brooks, Panthers

Injury: ACL tear (2 in 13 months)
Surgery: ACL Reconstructions (Nov. 11, 2023 and Dec. 8, 2024)
Outlook: Re-tears are an athlete’s and sports medicine team’s worst nightmare. 

Revision surgeries require a new graft site, are generally more complex, and come with slower recovery. The good news is Brooks has nearly 21 months to do it.

There are clear reasons to be concerned about Brooks’ future, but objectively he should be back on the field for Week 1 of the 2026 campaign. At what level of effectiveness is something we’ll try to discern this offseason.

Trey Benson, Cardinals

Injury: Meniscus tear (Sept. 25)
Surgery: Menisectomy (Oct. 1)
Outlook: Benson was initially expected to return 4 to 6 weeks following surgery, indicating a meniscectomy was performed rather than a repair. But he must have struggled with swelling, range of motion, or quad strength following surgery as he never returned last season. 

Expect him back at 100% for the start of the 2026 season, barring any secondary procedures.

James Conner, Cardinals

Injury: Foot
Surgery: September 2025, no exact pathology reported.
Outlook: Conner likely suffered a Jones Fracture or Lisfranc injury which required surgery.

Either way, as long as Conner avoids a setback, he should be ready to go Week 1 with minimal 2026 performance impact.

Najee Harris, free agent

Injury: Torn Achilles (Sep. 21)
Surgery: Achilles repair
Outlook: An early-season tear gives Harris the best chance to be ready early next season.

Expect limited snaps early in the season and a 20% hit to efficiency. Achilles repairs severely impact power and burst for the first year. Minimal to no impact two years removed.

Fantasy Football Injuries: WRs

Malik Nabers, Giants

Injury: ACL tear with meniscus damage (Sept. 28)
Surgery: ACL reconstruction and meniscus repair (Oct. 28)
Outlook: A meniscus repair delays rehab over for the first two months. But the timeline of 10 months still gives Nabers a great chance to be back on the field in September. 

Expect a snap count for the first month with a moderate impact on performance all of next season. 

Two years removed there will be no concern.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins

Injury: Knee dislocation, ACL, and other ligament tears (Sept. 29)
Surgery: ACL+ (Sept. 30) 
Outlook: Hill is 31 years old and will be attempting to return from one of the most severe knee injuries an athlete can suffer. Multi-ligament rehab is complex and slow, typically taking 12+ months.

If we see Tyreek on a football field again – and it’s an if – expect a significant drop in production.

Travis Hunter, Jaguars

Injury: LCL tear (Oct. 30)
Surgery: LCL reconstruction (Nov. 11)
Outlook: A significant injury with a grueling rehab – but not quite as severe as an ACL.

Reports indicate Hunter is doing well with rehab thus far and is on track to be ready for camp this summer. LCL recovery is 6-9 months as compared to 9-12 for ACL.

No long term effect is expected.

Brandon Aiyuk, free agent

Injury: ACL, MCL, meniscus tear (Oct. 20, 2024)
Surgery: ACL reconstruction, meniscus repair (Nov. 2024)
Outlook: Aiyuk should be back to 100% for Week 1 as he will be 22 months removed from surgery. Even if he had setbacks or issues in the past year, there should be no concern for 2026.

Garrett Wilson, Jets

Injury: Knee hyperextension (Oct. 12)
Surgery: No
Outlook: Wilson suffered a knee hyperextension injury early in Week 6 that he aggravated in November. No ligament damage was reported, but he likely had a significant bone bruise in the knee joint. 

The Jets shut down Wilson for the rest of the year following the re-injury, but there is no concern for 2026. He should be 100% come Week 1.

Ricky Pearsall, 49ers

Injury: PCL sprain
Surgery: No
Outlook: Unlike the ACL, the PCL has an ability to heal on its own and surgery is rarely required. We never received confirmation of the degree of Pearsall’s sprain, which could be important long term. A full rupture could leave the knee at a slight risk moving forward.

Most likely, though, Pearsall should be back to 100% for the start of the 2026 season.

Tank Dell, Texans

Injury: Knee dislocation, ACL, MCL, LCL tears (Dec. 21, 2024)
Surgery: Jan. 15, 2025 and March 5, 2025
Outlook: Dell suffered a knee dislocation in late December 2024 and underwent two surgeries to repair and reconstruct three ligaments and meniscus damage.

Anytime two surgeries are needed, there is long-term concern. However, Dell will have 19 month of rehab under his belt by the time the 2026 season begins.

Expect Dell to play next season, but a moderate performance impact is expected for at least the first 1-2 months of the season as he makes his way back.

Calvin Ridley, Titans

Injury: Fractured fibula (Nov. 16)
Surgery: ORIF of fibula (fixation)
Outlook: There are no concerns regarding Ridley's outlook for next season. Relatively speaking, a fibula fracture is an easy recovery given that he has nine months to get ready for Week 1.

Fantasy Football Injuries: TEs

Brock Bowers, Raiders

Injury: PCL sprain, knee joint bone bruise (Sept. 7)
Surgery: None
Outlook: Bowers sustained a PCL sprain in Week 1 and was hindered by the injury all year until he was shut down in December.

Similar to Ricky Pearsall’s situation, no surgery is needed and he has plenty of time to get back to 100% for Week 1 next season. 

Expect minimal to no performance impact next season.

George Kittle, 49ers

Injury: Achilles tear (Jan. 11)
Surgery: Achilles repair (Jan. 14)
Outlook: Reports indicate that Kittle suffered a proximal Achilles tear and surgery was successful.

This is “best-case” for a worst-case scenario injury. If everything goes perfect we should see Kittle back on the field in October or November next year.

It is very challenging to regain full power in the first year, though, so expect a drop in production in 2026.

Two years removed he should be 100%, but he will be 34 years old at that point.

Tucker Kraft, Packers

Injury: ACL tear, LCL and meniscus partial tears (Nov. 2)
Surgery: ACL reconstruction 
Outlook: We have not received confirmation on whether the meniscus or LCL needed repairing, which could slow down recovery slightly.

Reports have indicated that Kraft is “ahead of schedule” and looking to be ready for Week 1. But those reports typically don’t mean much as a setback can happen at any phase of recovery and often come later in rehab.

As of now, expect Kraft to return sometime next September with a moderate impact to his performance all of next year. No impact the year following.

Sam LaPorta, Lions

Injury: Herniated disc in lumbar spine
Surgery: November
Outlook: LaPorta struggled with back issues through the majority of the first two months of the season until he was shut down and underwent surgery to fix a herniated disc.

He should have ample time to recover for Week 1, but there will always be some concern moving forward about the health of his lumbar spine.

If he can make it through 2026 without issue, that concern would dramatically reduce for the following year and beyond.

What Do These Injuries Mean For Your Fantasy Team?

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Tyler Smola, Injury Analyst

Tyler brings over a decade of sports medicine knowledge to Draft Sharks. He will be writing weekly injury analysis articles this season and will bring an expertise in sports medicine, rehabilitation, and sports performance to Draft Sharks.