Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

12-Team Non PPR Draft Strategy

What’s the optimal 12-team Non PPR draft strategy?

Fantasy drafts are tricky. There are a bunch of different variables to consider each time you’re on the clock:

• Scoring system
• Positional value
• Team needs
• ADP
• Upside
• Injury risk

It’s easy to be overwhelmed and make costly draft mistakes.

And is there anything worse than seeing your top picks falter while your opponents land the late-round league winners?

The solution: A round-by-round draft strategy guide to maximize value with every pick.

The 12-team Non PPR draft strategy guide below will take you through top targets and secondary options for every pick of your draft.

We’re using our 3D Values and current ADP to pinpoint the best picks in each round.

Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.

No fantasy football draft goes exactly as planned, of course. You’ll likely need to adjust your Non PPR draft strategy throughout the proceedings to maximize value.

That’s where the customized, dynamic fantasy football cheat sheet on your Draft War Room comes into play, instantly analyzing 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick.

Combine the Draft War Room with this round-by-round game plan, and you’ll be armed with the ultimate Non PPR fantasy football draft guide.

Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different.

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top target: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey’s 20.5 Non PPR points per game last year were 1.7 more than any other RB – and 4.3 more than any WR. He set career highs in multiple categories, including:

• Yards per carry
• Yards after contact per attempt
• Missed tackles forced per attempt

McCaffrey is still only 28 and should still have at least one more big fantasy season in him.

The only downside: Our Injury Predictor gives him a 63.6% chance of injury and 3.0 projected games missed this season. McCaffrey hurt his calf in early August but was running and cutting again by the middle of the month.

Next best: CeeDee Lamb

Lamb is coming off a massive 2023 season, leading all WRs in Non PPR points. He’s grown his target share and yards per route run each season, is in his prime at 25, and returns to the same offense with the same QB in 2024.

He loses some value vs. McCaffrey in Non PPR. But Lamb is arguably the safest pick in fantasy football.

Other option 

• Tyreek Hill

Rounds 2 & 3

Top targets: Derrick Henry & Deebo Samuel

Henry remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Samuel’s low-ish volume, high efficiency profile gets a boost in Non PPR leagues. He finished eighth among WRs in total Non PPR points last year; sixth in points per game. Samuel remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: De’Von Achane & Isiah Pacheco

Achane’s 11 games last year included Non PPR explosions of:

• 47.3 points
• 24.0 points
• 22.5 points
• 22.3 points
• 19.7 points

The 188-pounder will never be a high-volume back. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability. Achane averaged a huge 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards last year. 

Pacheco finished 14th among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is now gone.

We'll see how much passing-game work newly-signed Samaje Perine steals, but we're expecting Pacheco to handle a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Try to leave the first three rounds of your Non PPR draft with at least one RB, ideally two.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Mike Evans
• Nico Collins
• Jaylen Waddle

Rounds 4 & 5

Top targets: Ken Walker & Cooper Kupp

There's been a ton of positive buzz on Walker's role under Seattle's new coaching staff. He's been a rankings riser in August and is a solid value here.

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 9.3 Non PPR points per game in those outings ranked 21st among WRs.

Next best: Joe Mixon & Tee Higgins

The Texans traded for Mixon before he could hit the open market -- and then signed him to a three-year, $27 million extension. That all points to Mixon operating as the clear lead back for a Texans offense that could explode in QB C.J. Stroud's second season.

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He ranked top-17 in Non PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022 and is just 25.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• DeVonta Smith
• Mark Andrews
• Trey McBride

Rounds 6 & 7

Top targets: Raheem Mostert & Xavier Worthy

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Worthy has looked electric this preseason. And, more importantly, he's been a nearly every-down player with QB Patrick Mahomes. It doesn't look like the Chiefs will slow-play this rookie. Worthy is an upside WR3 target.

Next best: Dak Prescott & Calvin Ridley

Prescott’s future in Dallas beyond 2024 might be uncertain, but he’s a strong fantasy value for this year. He's coming off a QB3 finish and returns his top three targets in WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks.

Ridley trailed new teammate DeAndre Hopkins in most metrics last year. But the Titans gave him a big four-year, $92 million deal in free agency, which might signal that they want him to be the No. 1 WR. DeAndre Hopkins' August knee injury doesn't hurt Ridley's outlook.

Tennessee figures to throw it a lot more this year under new HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Najee Harris
• Tony Pollard
• Jayden Reed
• Terry McLaurin
• Chris Godwin

Rounds 8 & 9

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Javonte Williams

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, but he’s fine to reach for in the ninth if you’re still looking for your QB1. The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. 

Williams is coming off an inefficient 2023 season, but it’s fair to blame his 2022 multi-ligament knee injury. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next best: Christian Watson & Jake Ferguson

Watson's hamstrings were a problem again last year, but he remained in a very fantasy-friendly role when healthy. Watson registered a big 15.6-yard average target depth. And his 15 end-zone targets led the Packers and ranked sixth among all WRs, despite Watson missing eight games. There's still exciting upside here if he can stay on the field.

Ferguson finished TE8 in Non PPR points last year, despite underachieving in the TD department. He’ll remain a big part of Dallas’ passing game in 2024.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Ferguson and Dallas Goedert, so grabbing one at this turn makes sense.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Jaylen Warren
• Zack Moss
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Diontae Johnson
• Dallas Goedert

Rounds 10 & 11

Top targets: Chase Brown & Courtland Sutton

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish, fueled by 10 TDs, and could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Next best: Tyjae Spears & Pat Freiermuth

Despite the addition of free-agent RB Tony Pollard, the Titans coaching staff has made it clear that Spears will remain significantly involved this year. He certainly earned a 2024 role with strong rookie season. Spears racked up 52 catches and averaged a strong 4.5 yards per carry.

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Tyler Lockett

Rounds 12 & 13

Top targets: Ty Chandler & Mike Williams

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Next best: Gabe Davis & Rashid Shaheed

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. Davis finished as a top-15 Non PPR WR six times last season.

Shaheed has flashed in limited opportunities through two NFL seasons, averaging a huge 11.1 yards per target. He looks like the Saints' clear No. 2 WR heading into 2024 and should find himself in a more creative offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• Rico Dowdle
• Jaylen Wright
• Ray Davis
• Bucky Irving
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Jerry Jeudy
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Luke Musgrave

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top target: Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a RB6 finish in Non PPR points ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.

Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.

Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.

Next best: Bijan Robinson

Robinson’s rookie campaign felt a little underwhelming – but he still finished ninth among RBs in Non PPR points.

The change from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson’s offense should mean a more fantasy-friendly role. Robinson spent the last five seasons working under Sean McVay, whose offense has produced a bunch of big RB seasons.

Other options

• Justin Jefferson
• Ja'Marr Chase

Round 2

Top target: Derrick Henry

Henry remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). 

Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Next best: De’Von Achane

Achane’s 11 games last year included Non PPR explosions of:

• 47.3 points
• 24.0 points
• 22.5 points
• 22.3 points
• 19.7 points

The 188-pounder will never be a high-volume back. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability. Achane averaged a huge 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards last year. 

Other options

• Travis Etienne
• Drake London

Round 3

Top target: Deebo Samuel

Samuel’s low-ish volume, high efficiency profile gets a boost in Non PPR leagues. He finished eighth among WRs in total Non PPR points last year; sixth in points per game. 

Samuel remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 14th among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is now gone.

We'll see how much passing-game work newly-signed Samaje Perine steals, but we're expecting Pacheco to handle a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Don’t be afraid to open your Non PPR draft with three straight RBs if they happen to be the best available players.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Mike Evans
• Nico Collins
• Jaylen Waddle

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 9.3 Non PPR points per game in those outings ranked 21st among WRs.

Next best: Ken Walker

There's been a ton of positive buzz on Walker's role under Seattle's new coaching staff. He's been a rankings riser in August and is a solid value here.

Walker finished 18th among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year.

Other options

• Joe Mixon
• DeVonta Smith
• Mark Andrews
• Trey McBride

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked 17th in Non PPR points per game in 2021 and 11th in 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: David Montgomery

Montgomery tallied 13 TDs and a RB6 finish in Non PPR points per game last year.

Jahmyr Gibbs might steal a bit more work this year, but Montgomery should remain a goal-line fixture for a high-scoring Lions offense.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• James Conner
• Tank Dell
• Amari Cooper
• George Kittle

Round 6

Top target: Raheem Mostert

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. 

There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Next best: Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has been a safe fantasy bet, topping 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons.

2024 could be his best year yet. QB Jayden Daniels should prove to be a significant upgrade. And the departure of WR Jahan Dotson leaves McLaurin as the clear top dog in this passing game.

Other options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Najee Harris
• Jayden Reed

Round 7

Top target: Xavier Worthy

Worthy has looked electric this preseason. And, more importantly, he's been a nearly every-down player with QB Patrick Mahomes.

It doesn't look like the Chiefs will slow-play this rookie. Worthy is an upside WR3 target.

Next best: Calvin Ridley

Ridley trailed new teammate DeAndre Hopkins in most metrics last year. But the Titans gave him a big four-year, $92 million deal in free agency, which might signal that they want him to be the No. 1 WR. 

Tennessee figures to throw it a lot more this year under new HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Dak Prescott
• Najee Harris
• Tony Pollard
• Chris Godwin
• Rashee Rice

Round 8

Top target: Javonte Williams

Blame the 2022 multi-ligament knee injury for Williams’ inefficient 2023. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next best: Christian Watson

Watson's hamstrings were a problem again last year, but he remained in a very fantasy-friendly role when healthy. Watson registered a big 15.6-yard average target depth. And his 15 end-zone targets led the Packers and ranked sixth among all WRs, despite Watson missing eight games.

There's still exciting upside here if he can stay on the field.

Other options

• Jaylen Warren
• Jonathon Brooks
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Diontae Johnson
• Jake Ferguson

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. 

Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 14th among TE in Non PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE6 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Goedert.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Devin Singletary
• Jameson Williams
• Keon Coleman
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Round 10

Top Target: Chase Brown

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish last year, fueled by 10 TDs.

He could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Other options

• Tyjae Spears
• Jerome Ford
• Tyler Lockett
• Dalton Schultz

Round 11

Top target: Zach Charbonnet

Charbonnet might not have any standalone value behind RB Ken Walker. But he's at least one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.

The 2023 second-round pick had a nice rookie season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and catching 33 balls.

Next best: Pat Freiermuth

Here's one of the top 2024 fantasy football sleepers.

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• J.K. Dobbins
• Rashid Shaheed

Round 12

Top target: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

His TD-scoring prowess is especially valuable in Non PPR fantasy leagues.

Next best: Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. 

Davis finished as a top-15 Non PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• Jerry Jeudy
• Brandin Cooks
• Luke Musgrave

Round 13

Top target: Ty Chandler

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. 

But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Next best: Dontayvion Wicks

Wicks beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year. He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-three WR job on an ascending Packers offense.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Rico Dowdle
• Jaylen Wright
• Ray Davis
• Bucky Irving
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Jerry Jeudy
• Brandin Cooks
• Luke Musgrave

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 7, 8, or 9

Round 1

Top target: Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a RB6 finish in Non PPR points ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.

Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.

Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.

Next best: Bijan Robinson

Robinson’s rookie campaign felt a little underwhelming – but he still finished ninth among RBs in Non PPR points.

The change from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson’s offense should mean a more fantasy-friendly role. Robinson spent the last five seasons working under Sean McVay, whose offense has produced a bunch of big RB seasons.

Other options

• Jonathan Taylor
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Round 2

Top target: Derrick Henry

Henry remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). 

Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Next best: Kyren Williams

It might feel a bit unnerving to spend a first- or second-round pick on a guy who was a waiver-wire darling just a year ago. But Williams was excellent last season, ranking top-10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

Just as importantly, his volume was excellent. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more expected PPR points per game.

Rookie RB Blake Corum figures to cut into that workload a bit. But we’re expecting Williams to remain the Rams’ clear lead back.

Other options

• De'Von Achane
• Puka Nacua
• Drake London

Round 3

Top target: Deebo Samuel

Samuel’s low-ish volume, high efficiency profile gets a boost in Non PPR leagues. He finished eighth among WRs in total Non PPR points last year; sixth in points per game. 

Samuel remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 14th among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is now gone.

We'll see how much passing-game work newly-signed Samaje Perine steals, but we're expecting Pacheco to handle a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Don’t be afraid to open your Non PPR draft with three straight RBs if they happen to be the best available players.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Mike Evans
• Nico Collins
• Jaylen Waddle

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 9.3 Non PPR points per game in those outings ranked 21st among WRs.

Next best: Ken Walker

There's been a ton of positive buzz on Walker's role under Seattle's new coaching staff. He's been a rankings riser in August and is a solid value here.

Walker finished 18th among RBs in Non PPR points per game.

Other options

• Joe Mixon
• Malik Nabers
• D.K. Metcalf
• Mark Andrews

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked 17th in Non PPR points per game in 2021 and 11th in 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: David Montgomery

Montgomery tallied 13 TDs and a RB6 finish in Non PPR points per game last year.

Jahmyr Gibbs might steal a bit more work this year, but Montgomery should remain a goal-line fixture for a high-scoring Lions offense.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• James Conner
• Tank Dell
• Amari Cooper
• George Kittle

Round 6

Top target: Raheem Mostert

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. 

There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Next best: Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has been a safe fantasy bet, topping 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons.

2024 could be his best year yet. QB Jayden Daniels should prove to be a significant upgrade. And the departure of WR Jahan Dotson leaves McLaurin as the clear top dog in this passing game.

Other options

• Najee Harris
• Jayden Reed
• Terry McLaurin

Round 7

Top target: Xavier Worthy

Worthy has looked electric this preseason. And, more importantly, he's been a nearly every-down player with QB Patrick Mahomes.

It doesn't look like the Chiefs will slow-play this rookie. Worthy is an upside WR3 target.

Next best: Calvin Ridley

Ridley trailed new teammate DeAndre Hopkins in most metrics last year. But the Titans gave him a big four-year, $92 million deal in free agency, which might signal that they want him to be the No. 1 WR. DeAndre Hopkins' knee injury -- which could cost him the first game or two of the season -- doesn't hurt Ridley's outlook.

Tennessee figures to throw it a lot more this year under new HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Dak Prescott
• Tony Pollard
• Chris Godwin
• Rashee Rice

Round 8

Top target: Javonte Williams

Williams is coming off an inefficient 2023 season, but it’s fair to blame his 2022 multi-ligament knee injury. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next best: Christian Watson

Watson's hamstrings were a problem again last year, but he remained in a very fantasy-friendly role when healthy. Watson registered a big 15.6-yard average target depth. And his 15 end-zone targets led the Packers and ranked sixth among all WRs, despite Watson missing eight games.

There's still exciting upside here if he can stay on the field.

Other options

• Jonathon Brooks
• Jaylen Warren
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Diontae Johnson
• Jake Ferguson

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, so you could gamble that he makes it to your next pick. But we’d rather just secure him here.

The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 14th among TE in Non PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE6 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Goedert.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Devin Singletary
• Jameson Williams
• Keon Coleman
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Round 10

Top target: Chase Brown

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Next best: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish last year, fueled by 10 TDs.

He could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Other options

• Tyjae Spears
• Jerome Ford
• Tyler Lockett
• Dalton Schultz

Round 11

Top target: Zach Charbonnet

Charbonnet might not have any standalone value behind RB Ken Walker. But he's at least one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.

The 2023 second-round pick had a nice rookie season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and catching 33 balls.

Next best: Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. 

The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• J.K. Dobbins
• Rashid Shaheed

Round 12

Top target: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

His TD-scoring prowess is especially valuable in Non PPR fantasy leagues.

Next best: Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. 

Davis finished as a top-15 Non PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• Jerry Jeudy
• Brandin Cooks
• Luke Musgrave

Round 13

Top target: Ty Chandler

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. 

But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Next best: Dontayvion Wicks

Wicks beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year. He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-three WR job on an ascending Packers offense.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Rico Dowdle
• Jaylen Wright
• Ray Davis
• Bucky Irving
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Jerry Jeudy
• Brandin Cooks
• Luke Musgrave

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 10, 11, or 12

Rounds 1 & 2

Top targets: Jonathan Taylor & Saquon Barkley

Despite ankle and thumb injuries, Taylor finished fifth among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year. He’s still in his prime at 25 and will remain a huge part of an ascending Colts offense.

Barkley turned 288 touches (in 14 games) into a RB8 finish in Non PPR points per game last year. Now he gets a huge upgrade in situation going from New York to Philadelphia.

Next best: Kyren Williams & Puka Nacua

Williams was excellent last season, ranking top-10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade. Just as importantly, his volume was excellent. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more expected PPR points per game.

Rookie RB Blake Corum figures to cut into that workload a bit. But we’re expecting Williams to remain the Rams’ clear lead back.

Nacua is coming off a historic rookie season, scoring the third most PPR points by a first-year WR in NFL history. The two guys ahead of him on that list: Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase.

Returning to the same offense with the same QB as an ascending 23-year-old, Nacua is a safe bet for WR1 production with upside into the top-5.

He's currently sidelined with a knee injury but is fully expected to be ready for Week 1.

Other options

• Derrick Henry
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Garrett Wilson

Rounds 3 & 4

Top targets: Jaylen Waddle & Jalen Hurts

Waddle missed three games and parts of a couple more last season and got unlucky in the TD department (5.6% TD rate). Yet he still finished 22nd among WRs in Non PPR points per game, setting a career high and ranking eighth among 84 qualifying WRs in yards per route run.

This is a young, explosive WR in a strong offense that still boasts WR1 upside.

Hurts is about a round cheaper this year than last, despite turning in his second straight top-three fantasy finish. 

He returns all his key weapons from last season and adds RB Saquon Barkley to the arsenal. The Eagles also figure to play faster under new OC Kellen Moore, boosting Hurts’ fantasy outlook.

Next best: Malik Nabers & Cooper Kupp

Nabers has been lighting up Giants camp all August -- and dominated the Lions defense in joint practices.

QB play is a concern in New York. But talent plus volume should carry Nabers to a strong rookie season.

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 9.3 Non PPR points per game in those outings ranked 21st among WRs.

Other options

• Ken Walker
• Joe Mixon
• D.J. Moore
• D.K. Metcalf

Rounds 5 & 6

Top targets: David Montgomery & Tee Higgins

Montgomery tallied 13 TDs and a RB6 finish in Non PPR points per game last year. Jahmyr Gibbs might steal a bit more work this year, but Montgomery should remain a goal-line fixture for a high-scoring Lions offense.

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He ranked top-17 in Non PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022 and is just 25.

Next best: James Conner & Joe Burrow

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished seventh at his position in Non PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Burrow and his WRs dealt with injuries throughout last season. But he’s an easy rebound candidate with better health after finishing QB8 and QB4 the previous two years.

Burrow and Higgins is a fun stack at this turn.

Other options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Amari Cooper
• George Pickens
• George Kittle

Rounds 7 & 8

Top targets: Raheem Mostert & Javonte Williams

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Williams is coming off an inefficient 2023 season, but it’s fair to blame his 2022 multi-ligament knee injury. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next best: Xavier Worthy & Calvin Ridley

Worthy has looked electric this preseason. And, more importantly, he's been a nearly every-down player with QB Patrick Mahomes. It doesn't look like the Chiefs will slow-play this rookie. Worthy is an upside WR3 target.

We’re buying the Tennessee passing game this season based mostly on a big projected increase in volume.

The Titans never ranked higher than 25th in pass attempts in six seasons under Mike Vrabel. They finished 30th each of the past two seasons. New HC Brian Callahan comes from Cincinnati, where the Bengals ranked top-14 in pass attempts in four of his five seasons.

The philosophy shift makes Ridley a nice value in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Other options

• Jonathon Brooks
• Tony Pollard
• Chris Godwin
• Rashee Rice
• Jake Ferguson
• David Njoku

Rounds 9 & 10

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Chase Brown

This is a good spot to secure your QB1 if you haven’t yet.

Daniels’ combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Next best: Dallas Goedert & Courtland Sutton

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 14th among TE in Non PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE6 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Goedert.

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish last year, fueled by 10 TDs. He could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Other options

• Tyjae Spears
• Jameson Williams
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Tyler Lockett

Rounds 11 & 12

Top targets: Mike Williams & Pat Freiermuth

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Next best: Zach Charbonnet & Gabe Davis

Charbonnet might not have any standalone value behind RB Ken Walker. But he's at least one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.

The 2023 second-round pick had a nice rookie season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and catching 33 balls.

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. 

Davis finished as a top-15 Non PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• J.K. Dobbins
• Rashid Shaheed
• Jerry Jeudy
• Brandin Cooks
• Luke Musgrave

Rounds 13 & 14

Top targets: Ty Chandler & Dontayvion Wicks

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Wicks beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year. He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-three WR job on an ascending Packers offense.

Next best: Antonio Gibson & Jaylen Wright

Gibson should play a passing-down role behind a healthy Rhamondre Stevenson. And if Stevenson misses time, Gibson would likely dominate New England's backfield work.

Wright will likely need a De'Von Achane or Raheem Mostert injury to be a fantasy factor this season. But both of those RBs carry high injury risk.

If Wright finds significant playing time, his speed in this Miami offense could create exciting upside.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Ravis Davis
• Bucky Irving
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Darnell Mooney
• Marvin Mims
• Ja'Lynn Polk

Rounds 15 & 16

Top target: K & DST

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

The Ultimate Non PPR Draft Strategy Guide: A Customized, Dynamic Cheat Sheet

Having round-by-round strategy heading into your draft is important.

But fantasy football drafts are unpredictable. You need to be nimble. You need to adjust on the fly to capture the most value.

You need a customized, dynamic cheat sheet.

The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league’s exact rules to give you a precise set of rankings.

Then it recalibrates throughout your draft based on 17 value indicators to make sure you’re making the absolute best pick each time you’re on the clock.

CREATE YOUR DRAFT WAR ROOM NOW!

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.