16-Team Draft Strategy

Pick-by-Pick 16-Team Draft Strategy

A 16-team draft can feel daunting...

You need to know a deeper pool of players. And, as with any league size, you need to juggle several variables each time you’re on the clock:

• Scoring system
• Positional value
• Team needs
• ADP
• Upside
• Injury risk

It’s easy to be overwhelmed and make costly draft mistakes.

And is there anything worse than seeing your top picks falter while your opponents land some late-round studs?

The solution: A pick-by-pick draft strategy guide to help you make optimal picks.

The 16-team draft strategy guide below will take you through top targets and secondary options for every round, no matter where you're picking.

We’re using our 3D Values and current ADP to pinpoint the top picks in each round.

Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.

Of course, no fantasy football draft matches ADP. You must adjust your 16-team draft strategy as you go to maximize value.

That’s where the customized, dynamic fantasy football cheat sheet on your Draft War Room comes into play, instantly analyzing 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick. Don't enter your next draft without it.

Combine the Draft War Room with this round-by-round game plan, and you’ll have everything needed to win your draft.

Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different. We're also keeping a best-case scenario approach in tact for all draft positions, so you may not find players available when you're on the clock in a particular round. If that happens, simply skip ahead to the next round for draftable options. And remember: ADPs will vary across different fantasy platforms.

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 1, 2, 3, or 4

Round 1

Top Target: Saquon Barkley

Barkley and Bijan Robinson project similarly in 3D Value. Barkley gets the edge, but if you're drafting many teams, mix in both backs evenly.

Last year, Barkley tallied a league-high 20.9 half-PPR points per game (a full point ahead of RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs). 

Barkley’s role and supporting cast signal another excellent fantasy finish.

Next Best: Bijan Robinson

Robinson looks like a younger Barkley. 

The Falcon boasts more receiving upside but plays in a less-established offense. Still, he’s an elite talent with a real shot to lead all RBs in touches.

Other Options

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Christian McCaffrey

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Chase Brown & Tyreek Hill

An RB-RB start isn’t required, but it’s a good path from an early draft spot. 

The reason? RBs get a value boost in a 16-team league, where value falls off quicker than WR.

The Bengals could have spent a Day 2 or early Day 3 pick on an RB. Instead, they waited until Round 6 to add Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks.

He adds youth to a backfield with underwhelming veterans in Zack Moss and Samaje Perine. But is he a candidate to steal work from Brown? 

Nope.

Brown remains a strong candidate for 15-18 touches per game on a high-scoring offense.

Hill brings some decline and traded risk. But he's on track to be a full go for Week 1, per HC Mike McDaniel. And we know there's high-end WR1 upside if things break right.

Next Best: James Cook & Jalen Hurts

Consider Cook an ideal RB2. His TD production will certainly decline, a year after scoring 16 times on 207 attempts. But Buffalo's offensive environment remains strong, while a new contract will lock him into a clear lead back role. 

Hurts gives you rushing security, with 10+ TDs in four straight seasons. We also anticipate a passing rebound, particularly if Philly’s receivers encounter better injury luck. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert combined to miss 15 games in 2024.

Other Options

• Ladd McConkey
• Mike Evans
• Davante Adams
• Omarion Hampton

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Isiah Pacheco & DeVonta Smith

You’re chasing opportunity with Pacheco. Back healthy, he’s the favorite for lead work over Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, and rookie Brashard Smith.

Of course, you should also be happy to grab pieces of a high-scoring Chiefs offense. 

Kansas City has finished top-9 in red zone plays per game in all seven of Patrick Mahomes' starting seasons. We saw that translate into fantasy production in 2023, when Pacheco scored eight of his nine TDs from the red zone. 

Consider the 26-year-old a terrific RB3/flex. 

Smith saw at least a 20% target share in all but three games last season (including the postseason). He brings a track record of WR2 production with a defined role as Philly’s No. 2 WR.

A bounce back in Philly’s pass rate from last year’s 44.3% would help. A healthier group of pass catchers could tilt things that way. Plus, it’s fair to wonder if OC Kevin Patullo will keep feeding Barkley 21.5 carries per game.

Next Best: George Pickens & D’Andre Swift

Pickens brings big-play potential to a high-volume Dallas passing game. The former Steeler ranked 12th league-wide in air yards last season.

Surrounded by the right pieces -- CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott, plus the motivation of a contract year -- Pickens faces a clear path to upside.

Swift might seem like damaged goods after a meh 2024. But you can point to a poorly designed offense under then-OC Shane Waldron as a reason for this entire unit underperforming. Remember: Swift posted a career-high 1,049 rushing yards (and 4.6 YPC) with the Eagles in 2023.

Current backfield competition (Roschon Johnson and rookie Kyle Monangai) helps Swift's case for maintaining a lead role.

Other Options

• Tetairoa McMillan
• Courtland Sutton
• Zay Flowers
• Calvin Ridley
• Ricky Pearsall
• Tony Pollard
• RJ Harvey

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Jordan Addison & Austin Ekeler

Addison will miss the first three weeks on suspension. But by all accounts, he's enjoyed an impressive training camp and will step into his usual role upon returning. Buy the dip. 

Ekeler receives a nice boost with Brian Robinson now in San Francisco. The veteran figures to play a ton of passing-down snaps -- while mixing in on run downs -- for an ascending, Jayden Daniels-led unit. 

Next Best: Travis Etienne & Deebo Samuel

Etienne underwhelmed in 2024, but he faced significant hurdles:

• a brutal O-line
• a sputtering offense
• and a mid-season hamstring injury. 

Now he gets a reset with HC Liam Coen, whose run scheme helped spark a Bucky Irving breakout last fall. 

Etienne remains Jacksonville’s top receiving threat at RB, so he’s still firmly in the flex mix, especially in full PPR setups.

If you’re already three-deep at RB, consider Samuel, who figures to draw creative usage from OC Kliff Kingsbury. 

Other Options

• Tyrone Tracy Jr.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• Stefon Diggs
• David Njoku

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Justin Fields & Josh Downs

Fields enters Year 5 with a career average of 50 rushing yards per game. 

That ground-game production helped him finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in three of his six starts last season. He also recorded six top-8 fantasy finishes in 2023, despite a bad supporting cast in Chicago.

The weapons are still lacking in New York, but if Fields leans on Garrett Wilson and keeps running as usual, top-8 QB numbers are possible.

Downs is a clear winner from the Colts' move to Daniel Jones under center. His short-range tendencies mesh well with Downs' quick-twitch movement and slot alignment.

Next Best: Rashid Shaheed & Dalton Kincaid 

Shaheed is the clear cut No. 2 WR for new QB Spencer Rattler. New Orleans figures to play from behind often in 2025 and produce some useful, pass-friendly scripts for Shaheed.

Kincaid may be the first TE to show up alongside “top target” or “next best.” If you didn’t land an early-round TE like Trey McBride or Brock Bowers, the Bill makes for a worthwhile TE1 at cost.

Kincaid’s tied to Josh Allen in a high-scoring offense and already has a top-12 season on his résumé. A healthy 2025 would set him up to rebound.

Other Options

• Dak Prescott
• Ollie Gordon
• Marvin Mims
• Trey Benson
• Ray Davis
• Jake Ferguson

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Hollywood Brown & Trevor Lawrence

Brown suffered a shoulder injury early last year, one that required surgery. Still, upon returning in Week 16, he jumped into a role that produced target shares of 20% and 19% in his first two games.

Sure, the Chiefs aren’t short on targets with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce. But Rice is set to miss early-season games, while Kelce’s showed signs of decline in 2024. His yards per catch, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade all hit career lows.

Ultimately, Brown supplies a cheap way to gain exposure to a productive passing game. He’s ideal as a WR4/5.

Lawrence sits at the bottom of our Tier 2 QB rankings. The 2025 offseason turned up an exciting HC hire, as Liam Coen just guided Baker Mayfield to a career year.

Jacksonville also upgraded at the No. 2 WR spot by trading up for Travis Hunter.

Don’t consider Lawrence an every-week starter. But opening games vs. the Dolphins, Panthers, and Bengals at least appear favorable.

Other Options

• Dylan Sampson
• Jerome Ford
• Christian Kirk
• Keenan Allen

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Justice Hill & Amari Cooper

You know about Derrick Henry’s durability, with back-to-back seasons of 17 games played. But there are no sure things in fantasy, especially at RB.

If an injury strikes the veteran, Hill would step into 12+ touches per game on one of the NFL’s best offenses.

Cooper signed with Vegas in late August. Expect a slow start, but there are enough targets available to make him an interesting stash. We'll also see if anything comes of the Jakobi Meyers trade rumors.

Other Options

• Cam Ward
• Keaton Mitchell
• Josh Palmer
• Pat Bryant
• Cedric Tillman
• Chig Okonkwo

Rounds 14, 15, & 16

Top Targets: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Target an upside stash in Round 14. You can sort by projected ceiling in your Draft War Room to find attractive targets. 

Names to consider:

• Will Shipley
• Kendre Miller
• DJ Giddens
• Dyami Brown
• Theo Johnson

Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:

• Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
• Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
• 49ers (at SEA, at NO)

Discount kicker options include:

• Matt Gay, Commanders
• Daniel Carlson, Raiders
• Cam Little, Jaguars

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 5, 6, 7, or 8

Round 1

Top Target: Christian McCaffrey

CMC’s value increases in 16-team leagues, where stud RBs are scarce. 

Sure, you can fret over his injury-filled 2024. But you only need to check the two prior years, when he finished RB1 and RB2 overall, to gauge his ceiling.

Next Best: Jahmyr Gibbs

There’s a chance Gibbs makes it to you at 5 or 6. He’s a long-shot target at 7 or 8, though.

As with CMC, the Lion sees a value boost in such a deep league. His 3D Value places him just ahead of top WRs CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson.

If you prefer the relative safety of the WRs, feel free to pivot.

Other Options

• Derrick Henry
• Ashton Jeanty
• CeeDee Lamb
• Justin Jefferson

Round 2

Top Target: Chase Brown  

Cincinnati’s offseason actions show they’re buying Brown’s 2024 breakout.

Veteran Samaje Perine signed a deal that calls for only $40K guaranteed. And the draft flew by with a minimal backfield investment (Round 6 pick Tahj Brooks).

Now entering a contract year at 25, he has plenty of motivation to deliver a third straight terrific season.

Chase probably maxes out around 15-16 carries per game. But a strong receiving role and expected red zone work should continue supplying a top-eight ceiling.

Next Best: Kyren Williams 

Perhaps Blake Corum takes a step forward in Year 2. 

Or maybe the Rams struck gold with rookie Jarquez Hunter. 

But as far as NFL production goes, Kyren Williams is the safe bet. He’s tallied 21 TDs over the past two seasons and remains a workhorse candidate under Sean McVay. 

Other Options

• Bucky Irving
• Tee Higgins
• Tyreek Hill

Round 3

Top Target: Alvin Kamara

Workload safety.

Not many RBs have it, but Kamara’s certainly in the club. The Saints’ current RB depth includes a mix of unproven players and past-their-peak talents:

• Kendre Miller
• (Rookie) Devin Neal
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire 
• Cam Akers

Kamara should remain a key piece of the passing game, too, even with the return of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The career-long Saint has reached 57 catches in three straight seasons.

Next Best: Mike Evans

Not much needs to be said here. Evans turns 32 in August but owns 11 straight seasons with 1,000 yards. He’s hit 11+ TDs in four of his past five seasons.

We’ll see if the offense takes a small step back without OC Liam Coen. But note that the Bucs promoted from within, elevating pass-game coordinator Josh Grizzard to playcaller.

Other Options

• Jalen Hurts
• Omarion Hampton
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Davante Adams
• George Kittle

Round 4

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle

Remember Waddle’s WR21 fantasy finish from 2023? It feels like a distant memory after an ugly 2024.

But you can trace a lot of his ‘24 struggles to missed time from Tua Tagovailoa. If his QB stays healthy, Waddle’s target volume should rebound, especially with Jonnu Smith off the roster. New TE Darren Waller is a major wild card after coming out of retirement.

Embrace the risk and consider Waddle an upside WR2/3. 

Next Best: George Pickens

The move to Dallas puts Pickens in a better overall spot. He upgrades to Dak Prescott, one of the league's most efficient passers, and joins a system that consistently ranks near the top in pass volume. Brian Schottenheimer has already shown a willingness to air it out, and now he takes over as head coach. 

Everything points to more opportunity and better efficiency for Pickens in 2025.

Other Options

• Tetairoa McMillan
• Courtland Sutton
• Zay Flowers
• D’Andre Swift

Round 5

Top Target: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco’s back to full strength and ready for a fresh start after an injury-ruined 2024. 

He runs with power, gets goal-line work, and remains the favorite for lead-back duties in one of the league’s top offenses. That’s the kind of profile you want to target as an RB2.

Next Best: Jameson Williams

Last season showed real growth from Williams, who posted standout efficiency (17.3 yards per catch) and reliable hands (3.3% drop rate). 

He heads into 2025 with a clear role in a high-powered offense and a coordinator who knows his game. John Morton worked with Williams as a rookie and now takes over as OC, adding another layer of continuity to an already promising setup.

Other Options

• Kaleb Johnson
• Rashee Rice
• Ricky Pearsall
• Calvin Ridley
• Chris Olave
• David Njoku

Round 6

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

Deebo still flashed elite yards-after-catch skills in 2024, averaging 8.2 YAC per reception. Now he steps into a system tailor-made for his strengths. 

OC Kliff Kingsbury’s screen-heavy offense plays right into Deebo’s game, while Jayden Daniels brings the accuracy to deliver on efficiency. With a wide-open WR room behind Terry McLaurin, there's a clear path to 100 targets for the former 49er.

Next Best: Matthew Golden

Injuries to the Green Bay WR corps have opened the door for Golden to produce right away. Word out of training camp suggests he's ready to step into a go-to role.

Other Options

• Khalil Shakir
• Stefon Diggs
• Jaylen Warren

Round 7

Top Target: Travis Etienne

Etienne gets a fresh start under HC Liam Coen, whose run game helped Bucky Irving thrive in Tampa Bay. 

We’ll see how this staff evaluates Tank Bigsby and rookie Bhayshul Tuten. But Etienne remains Jacksonville’s best receiving weapon out of the backfield and brings three-down potential if his teammates underwhelm. 

The offense appears set to improve, too, with Brian Thomas coming off a dynamic rookie season and rookie Travis Hunter bringing a pro-ready skill set. And remember: Trevor Lawrence only made 10 starts in 2024.

Consider Etienne an ideal flex option.

Next Best: Jordan Mason

Mason adds a big frame and a power game to the Vikings' backfield.

Reinforcements along the O-line suggest more efficient totals for Mason, who'll play alongside 30-year-old Aaron Jones.

Other Options

• Darnell Mooney
• Keon Coleman
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Round 8

Top Target: Justin Fields

Fields’ rushing gives him a fantasy floor few QBs can match. 

Last year, he started six games for the Steelers and delivered top-12 fantasy numbers in three of them, including a QB1 overall finish against the Colts. We’ve projected him for 826 rushing yards in 2024, tied for second among all QBs. 

That kind of upside gives him weekly-starter potential.

Next Best: Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid enters 2025 healthy and ready to bounce back. He’s shown flashes of high-end talent, like in 2023 when he finished his rookie season as the TE12 in half PPR points.

Last year, he finished an unspectacular TE15 before suffering a Week 10 knee injury. But note that he was a much improved TE9 in expected fantasy output.

The opportunity is still there in an offense that lacks a true No. 1 WR. And the upside remains top-10 among TEs. Consider Kincaid a post-hype sleeper to circle in drafts.

Other Options

• J.K. Dobbins
• Tyler Allegier
• Tyler Warren

Round 9

Top Target: Dak Prescott

Prescott is back to full strength and now leads an offense built to throw. The addition of George Pickens gives him another playmaker, while back-to-back first-round picks on the offensive line — Tyler Booker and Tyler Guyton — should keep him protected. 

All signs point to a productive 2025. And at a discounted price, the opportunity cost is low. 

Next Best: Josh Downs

Downs should be peppered with targets now that Daniel Jones has been announced as Indy's starter. The slot target also looks to be progressing from a summer hamstring issue.

Other Options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Trey Benson
• Ray Davis
• Jake Ferguson

Round 10

Top Target: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed enters 2025 as New Orleans’ locked-in No. 2 WR. The speedster owns 16.6 yards per catch and 1.97 yards per route run for his career -- both excellent marks.

His deep-ball ability adds weekly upside, making him an upside flex.

Next Best: Hollywood Brown

Brown returned late in 2024 and wasted no time making an impact, posting target shares of 20% and 19% in his first two games back. Now healthy, he enters 2025 with a chance to carve out a key role in one of the league’s top passing attacks. 

The Chiefs have plenty of weapons, but Brown’s strong finish and versatile skill set make him a sneaky value. He’s an ideal WR4 with room to grow.

Other Options

• Dylan Sampson
• Jerome Ford
• Christian Kirk
• Marvin Mims
• Dallas Goedert

Round 11

Top Target: Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence brings bounce-back potential alongside new HC Liam Coen and WR Travis Hunter. Now, we'll see if his protection can hold up. 

Next Best: Christian Kirk

Will Houston's young WRs blossom right away? And will they get anything from the TE position after a down year from Dalton Schultz? Those questions add some upside to Kirk, who's still only 28 years old.

Houston's run-game concerns might also push more work to the passing game.

Other Options

• Keenan Allen
• Chig Okonkwo

Round 12

Top Target: Keenan Allen

Allen returned to the Chargers in August, reuniting him with QB Justin Herbert. There's not a high ceiling to chase, but he figures to earn a sizable target share alongside a WR corps that's unproven behind Ladd McConkey.

Next Best: Justice Hill

We’re not betting on a Derrick Henry injury. But the man is 31 with 2,500 career touches.

If he misses games, Hill would step into a lead back role on one of the NFL’s elite offenses. He’s already coming off a 2024 that quietly produced a career-high 42 catches in 15 games.

Other Options

• Cedric Tillman
• Jarquez Hunter
• Darius Slayton
• Amari Cooper
• Chig Okonkwo

Round 13

Top Target: Josh Palmer

Looking for a bench stash? Consider Palmer, who signed a sizable deal in Buffalo this offseason. If Dalton Kincaid fails to rebound -- or if Keon Coleman doesn't progress -- it's Palmer who'll stand to benefit.

Next Best: Pat Bryant

Denver traded Devaughn Vele in August, helping open the door for Bryant to produce as a rookie. The WR depth chart is open behind Courtland Sutton, adding appeal to the Round 3 rookie.

Richardson’s uncertain status doesn’t matter much at a late-round, QB2 cost.

Other Options

• Michael Penix Jr.
• Cam Ward
• DJ Giddens
• Kyle Williams
• Mason Taylor

Rounds 14, 15, & 16

Target an upside stash in Round 14. You can sort by projected ceiling in your Draft War Room to find attractive targets. 

Names to consider:

• Will Shipley
• Kendre Miller
• DJ Giddens
• Chris Rodriguez
• Troy Franklin
• Dyami Brown
• Theo Johnson

Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:

• Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
• Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
• 49ers (at SEA, at NO)

Discount kicker options include:

• Matt Gay, Commanders
• Daniel Carlson, Raiders
• Cam Little, Jaguars

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 9, 10, 11, or 12

Round 1

Top Target: Derrick Henry

Even at 30, Henry powered his way to an RB3 finish in 2024. He ended the year by ripping off 6.9, 7.2, and 5.3 yards per carry in his final three games. Ultimately, there’s no worrisome sign of decline entering the fall.

With his workload and efficiency still intact, Henry enters 2025 as a locked-in RB1.

Next Best: Jonathan Taylor

Only one 3D Value point separated Taylor from Ashton Jeanty in my Draft War Room. The Colt holds slight edges in floor, ceiling, and raw projection.

Indy’s QB situation (Daniel Jones? Anthony Richardson?) remains suspect. Meanwhile, they return the same HC (Shane Steichen) and OC (Jim Bob Cooter) tandem.

Translation: Taylor will remain the offensive focal point, so much so that he could push for league-leading volume.

Other Options

• Ashton Jeanty
• Puka Nacua
• Nico Collins

Round 2

Top Target: A.J. Brown

Philly’s pass rate should tick up after finishing at just 44.3% last season. New OC Kevin Patullo brings a strong track record with QBs and WRs and has spent the past four years shaping the Eagles’ pass game under HC Nick Sirianni. 

Saquon Barkley’s 482-touch 2024 might factor into the pass/run split, too. Either way, Brown’s proven he can deliver WR1 totals on a run-first team.

Next Best: Chase Brown

Cincinnati waited until Round 6 to add RB Tahj Brooks, signaling confidence in the current backfield. That move injects some youth behind veterans Zack Moss and Samaje Perine but doesn’t threaten Brown’s role. 

He’s set up to handle 15 to 18 touches per game in one of the league’s most productive offenses.

Other Options

• Kyren Williams
• De'Von Achane
• Drake London
• Tee Higgins

Round 3

Top Target: Omarion Hampton

We'll see if Najee Harris (eye) suits up for Week 1. But it's clear Hampton has a chance to run with the lead back role after Harris missed all of training camp.

His UNC career suggests he can handle a three-down role. And we know the Chargers want to lean into the run game. 

Next Best: Mike Evans

Not much needs to be said here. Evans turns 32 in August but now owns 11 straight seasons with 1,000 yards. He’s hit 11+ TDs in four of his past five seasons.

We’ll see if the offense takes a small step back without OC Liam Coen. But note that the Bucs promoted from within, elevating pass-game coordinator Josh Grizzard to playcaller.

Other Options

• Joe Burrow
• James Cook
• George Kittle

Round 4

Top Target: James Conner

I entered Round 4 of a mock draft with 2 RBs and 1 WR. And still, the board pushed me to consider Conner over the WRs below.

That speaks to the scarcity at RB in a 16-team league. Conner simply presents solid value here, too, a season after finishing as the RB11 in per-game scoring. 

He enters 2025 as Arizona’s clear lead back with strong red-zone usage, efficient production, and reliable pass-catching chops. With that workload locked in, Conner looks ready to deliver steady RB2 value yet again.

Next Best: D.K. Metcalf

Metcalf quietly led the league in deep targets last year, despite missing two games. Now he joins a Pittsburgh team where he’s the unquestioned No. 1 WR. 

Don’t mistake the Steelers for a pass-first offense. But there should be some pass-volume rebound after adding Aaron Rodgers and a move TE in Jonnu Smith. 

Metcalf ultimately projects as a WR2 with big-play ability.

Other Options

• Jaylen Waddle
• DeVonta Smith
• George Pickens
• Tet McMillan
• Chuba Hubbard
• TreVeyon Henderson

Round 5

Top Target: Isiah Pacheco

Skip to the next guy if you’ve already selected three RBs. No need to grab a fourth this early.

Pacheco, though, brings the ability to lead Kansas City’s backfield. Just look back to 2023 – when he finished RB15 in half-PPR scoring – for the upside case.

Next Best: Calvin Ridley

Cam Ward projects as an inconsistent passer as a rookie. But he should pepper Ridley with targets each week, given the lack of receiving depth in Tennessee.

Other Options

• Kaleb Johnson
• Chris Olave

Round 6

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

We’re buying the dip here.

Deebo averaged 8.2 yards after the catch last season and now lands in an offense that fits him perfectly. OC Kliff Kingsbury's system thrives on quick throws and space creation, while Jayden Daniels brings sharp timing and ball placement. 

The WR room lacks defined roles behind Terry McLaurin, too. It all adds up to Samuel generating ~100 targets.

Next Best: Matthew Golden

Injuries to the Green Bay WR corps have opened the door for Golden to produce right away. Word out of training camp suggests he's ready to step into a go-to role.

Other Options

• Stefon Diggs
• Jaylen Warren

Round 7

Top Target: Travis Etienne

Etienne gets a fresh start under HC Liam Coen, whose run game helped Bucky Irving thrive in Tampa Bay. 

We’ll see how this staff evaluates Tank Bigsby and rookie Bhayshul Tuten. But Etienne remains Jacksonville’s best receiving weapon out of the backfield and brings three-down potential if his teammates underwhelm. 

The offense appears set to improve, too, with Brian Thomas coming off a dynamic rookie season and rookie Travis Hunter bringing a pro-ready skill set. And remember: Trevor Lawrence only made 10 starts in 2024.

Consider Etienne an ideal flex option.

Next Best: Jordan Mason

Mason adds a big frame and a power game to the Vikings' backfield.

Reinforcements along the O-line suggest more efficient totals for Mason, who'll play alongside 30-year-old Aaron Jones.

Other Options

• Darnell Mooney
• Keon Coleman
• Michael Pittman
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.
• Tank Bigsby

Round 8

Top Target: Justin Fields

Rushing production. It’s what you want out of your fantasy QB, and usually, it’s pricey.

Not with Fields, though. He’s typically available in the middle rounds, despite his potential to rank near the top of the league in QB rush yards. Note that he averages 50 rushing yards per game for his career. That’s 850 over a full season.

Don’t expect even league average passing totals. But with a true No. 1 WR in Garrett Wilson, Fields carries the potential for some big passing performances.

Next Best: Josh Downs

Downs enters 2025 as one of the more underrated receivers in fantasy. He earned targets at an elite per-route rate last season and now sits in a stable role for volume, especially if Daniel Jones starts. 

That last part is critical. Downs posted significantly worse efficiency with Anthony Richardson in 2024, while Jones has a history of peppering short-range targets like Wan’Dale Robinson.

Other Options

• J.K. Dobbins
• Tyler Allegier
• Tyler Warren

Round 9

Top Target: Dak Prescott

Let others worry about Dak’s down 2024.

The underperformance – even pre-hamstring injury – came on a small sample. It also arrived without new WR George Pickens… or anyone close to a threatening No. 2 target.

With Pickens in town and another Round 1 OL addition in G Tyler Booker, Dak regains a QB1 outlook.

Next Best: Trey Benson

Yes, Benson sits behind 30-year-old RB James Conner. But there have been whispers this summer that Benson could see more touches, even with Conner healthy. The talented, second-year back makes for an upside stash.

Other Options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Ray Davis
• Brian Robinson Jr.
• Jake Ferguson

Round 10

Top Target: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed enters 2025 as New Orleans’ locked-in No. 2 WR. 

He brings elite speed, earns targets at a high rate, and fits well in HC Kellen Moore’s up-tempo offense. 

Shaheed’s deep-ball ability adds weekly upside, making him a solid flex option.

Next Best: Hollywood Brown

A shoulder injury ruined Brown’s 2024. Now back healthy, he steps into 2025 with an opportunity to claim a consistent role in a high-powered Chiefs offense. That’s especially true with Rashee Rice looking at a multi-game suspension.

A strong early-season run could lock Brown into a stable, season-long role.

Other Options

• Dylan Sampson
• Christian Kirk
• Marvin Mims
• Dallas Goedert

Round 11

Top Target: Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence brings bounce-back potential alongside new HC Liam Coen and WR Travis Hunter. Now, we'll see if his protection can hold up. 

Next Best: Christian Kirk

Will Houston's young WRs blossom right away? And will they get anything from the TE position after a down year from Dalton Schultz? Those questions add some upside to Kirk, who's still only 28 years old.

Houston's run-game concerns might also push more work to the passing game.

Other Options

• Michael Penix Jr.
• Keenan Allen
• Amari Cooper
• Chig Okonkwo

Round 12

Top Target: Justice Hill

You know about Derrick Henry’s durability, with back-to-back seasons of 17 games played. But there are no sure things in fantasy, especially at RB.

If an injury strikes the veteran, Hill would step into 12+ touches per game on one of the NFL’s best offenses.

Next Best: Keenan Allen

Allen returned to the Chargers in August, reuniting him with QB Justin Herbert. There's not a high ceiling to chase, but he figures to earn a sizable target share alongside a WR corps that's unproven behind Ladd McConkey.

Other Options

• Cam Ward
• Michael Penix
• Blake Corum
• Amari Cooper
• Cedric Tillman

Round 13

Top Target: Josh Palmer

Looking for a bench stash? Consider Palmer, who signed a sizable deal in Buffalo this offseason. If Dalton Kincaid fails to rebound -- or if Keon Coleman doesn't progress -- it's Palmer who'll stand to benefit.

Next Best: Pat Bryant

Denver traded Devaughn Vele in August, helping open the door for Bryant to produce as a rookie. The WR depth chart is open behind Courtland Sutton, adding appeal to the Round 3 rookie.

Richardson’s uncertain status doesn’t matter much at a late-round, QB2 cost.

Other Options

• Michael Penix Jr.
• Cam Ward
• Chris Rodriguez
• DJ Giddens
• Kyle Williams
• Mason Taylor
• Elijah Arroyo

Rounds 14, 15, & 16

Target an upside stash in Round 14. You can sort by projected ceiling in your Draft War Room to find attractive targets. 

Names to consider:

• Will Shipley
• Kendre Miller
• Dyami Brown
• Theo Johnson

Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:

• Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
• Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
• 49ers (at SEA, at NO)

Discount kicker options include:

• Matt Gay, Commanders
• Daniel Carlson, Raiders
• Cam Little, Jaguars

16-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 13, 14, 15, or 16

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Targets: Jonathan Taylor & Nico Collins

Taylor piled up 100+ total yards in 10 of 14 games last season and averaged a strong 22.9 touches per contest. 

Indy made it clear this offseason that they plan to keep feeding him in 2025. The offense may rotate at QB, but Taylor won’t cede much work to backups DJ Giddens and Khalil Herbert.

Check your Draft War Room to see where the value lines up, but Taylor fits a variety of builds in Round 2.

Injuries disrupted what could have been a special 2024 for Collins. Still, he scattered five top-15 fantasy finishes across 12 appearances.

Houston added WR depth this offseason. But Collins remains the clear alpha for third-year QB C.J. Stroud.

Next Best: De’Von Achane & Brian Thomas Jr.

Achane showcased his ceiling last season by leading all RBs in receptions and finishing top six in PPR scoring. He flashed elite efficiency as a pass-catcher and handled nearly 23 opportunities per game alongside a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. 

At 188 pounds, perhaps Miami reduces his workload a bit in 2025. But there’s room for him to regress volume-wise and still perform as a league-winning RB.

Malik Nabers essentially matches Thomas in 3D Value. The Giant might have a higher target upside, but Thomas beats him on efficiency and scoring upside.

Ultimately, both guys are wise to mix into your late Round 1 gameplan.

Other Options

• Malik Nabers
• A.J. Brown
• Chase Brown

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: Alvin Kamara & Mike Evans

Few backs offer the kind of role stability Kamara brings into 2025, especially at cost. New Orleans returns a thin RB room behind him, and Kamara continues to shine as a pass-catcher with three straight seasons of 57 or more grabs. 

He’ll handle most of the work once again in an offense that could feature rookie QB Tyler Shough. 

Not much needs to be said on Evans. The career-long Buc turns 32 in August but now owns 11 straight seasons with 1,000 yards. He’s hit 11+ TDs in four of his past five seasons.

We’ll see if the offense takes a small step back without OC Liam Coen. But note that the Bucs promoted from within, elevating pass-game coordinator Josh Grizzard to playcaller.

Next Best: James Conner & DJ Moore

James Conner, draft day value …

If that sounds familiar, you’d be correct. Conner delivered on a discounted ADP last year, and he’s positioned to do it again.

Arizona returns the same key pieces (and coaching staff) that helped Conner to an RB11 finish in 2024. He did so despite posting 1.1 TDs below expectation.

Consider 2025 Conner a viable RB2.

Moore enters 2025 with a strong résumé and another opportunity to lead the Bears in receiving. He’s topped 1,100 yards in four of the past six seasons and hasn’t missed a game since 2020. 

Yeah, rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland bring talent, but they’re wild cards compared to Moore. An enticing HC-QB combo (Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams) add appeal to Moore as a Round 4 pick. 

Note: Exiting Round 4 with three RBs is viable given positional scarcity, but it’s not a priority.

Other Options

• George Kittle
• Joe Burrow
• TreVeyon Henderson
• D.K. Metcalf
• Tet McMillan
• Jaylen Waddle

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: Isiah Pacheco & Calvin Ridley

There’s value to be found in Kansas City’s backfield. Why not taken the guy with the best combination of youth and recent production?

Of course, that recency with Pacheco extends back to 2023, when he finished as the RB15 in half PPR. But just look to last year to see what this Chiefs engine can produce on the ground.

A banged up Pacheco and a collection of disappointing backs (Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine, and Carson Steele) combined for 1,313 rushing yards and 15 TDs.

Ridley's poised for a huge target share alongside a QB upgrade in rookie Cam Ward.

Next Best: Deebo Samuel & Kaleb Johnson

Washington targeted Deebo in an offseason trade, so they clearly have a plan for him. If he can stay healthy, a bounce-back season is in play.

Johnson brings a three-down skill set to the Steelers. While he'll share time with Jaylen Warren initially, the rookie may earn more touches as the season progresses. We know OC Arthur Smith wants to lean run.

Other Options

• Chris Olave
• Ricky Pearsall
• David Njoku

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: Justin Fields & Dalton Kincaid

Fields enters Year 5 with a career average of 50 rushing yards per game. 

That type of ground-game production helped him finish as a top-12 fantasy QB in three of his six starts last season. He also recorded six top-eight fantasy finishes in 2023, despite a bad supporting cast in Chicago.

The weapons are still lacking in New York, but if Fields leans on Garrett Wilson and keeps running like he has, top-eight numbers are in play.

How much did a 2024 knee injury affect Kincaid’s fantasy output?

That’s a key question to consider when evaluating his 2025 prospects. 

After a promising rookie year – one where he finished TE12 in fantasy scoring – we’ll take the optimistic view. Kincaid’s tied to an elite QB who’s tied to an offense that finished second in scoring last season.

Also note: Josh Allen has ranked top seven in red zone pass attempts in four of the past five seasons. So Kincaid could pop as a TD threat.

Next Best: Justin Herbert & Josh Downs

Herbert enters 2025 healthy and surrounded by an improved supporting cast. The Chargers added Round 2 WR Tre Harris, veteran WR Keenan Allen, and G Mekhi Becton to boost both the pass game and protection. Even with fewer attempts in 2024, Herbert improved his efficiency across the board, including passer rating, yards per attempt, and INT rate. 

He’s fully capable of delivering top-end fantasy production in spurts.

Downs projects as a high-floor PPR asset, especially with Daniel Jones under center.

Other Options

• Dak Prescott
• Keon Coleman
• Michael Pittman
• Darnell Mooney
• J.K. Dobbins

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: Hollywood Brown & Ray Davis

Brown suffered a shoulder injury early last year, one that required surgery. Still, upon returning in Week 16, he jumped into a role that produced targets shares of 20% and 19% of his first two games.

Sure, the Chiefs’ aren’t short on targets with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce. But Rice is set to miss early-season games, while Kelce’s showed some signs of decline in 2024. His yards per catch, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade all hit career lows.

Ultimately, Brown supplies a cheap way to gain exposure to a productive passing game. He’s ideal as a WR4.

Davis flashed in a 2024 spot-start vs. the Jets, totaling 155 yards on 23 touches. That he earned such a sizable workload as a Round 4 rookie speaks to his rapid ascent in Buffalo.

As for 2025, he clearly remains behind James Cook. But we’ll see what comes of Cook’s contract situation with the team. At a minimum, Davis profiles as a clear handcuff for a top offense.

Next Best: Jake Ferguson & Rashid Shaheed

Ferguson endured a forgettable 2024. The mishaps includes a concussion and MCL sprain, plus a disastrous Dallas offense that lost Dak Prescott in Week 9.

Fortunately, those factors appear remedied. And while George Pickens arrives to lower the target ceiling, Ferguson should benefit from increased red zone opportunities.

In New Orleans, Shaheed enters 2025 as a locked-in No. 2 WR. He’s enjoyed a setback-free offseason following an October meniscus tear.

He brings elite speed, earns targets at a high rate, and fits well in HC Kellen Moore’s up-tempo offense. 

Shaheed’s deep-ball ability adds weekly upside, making him a solid flex option.

Other Options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Trey Benson
• Marvin Mims
• Christian Kirk
• Xavier Legette

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: Chig Okonkwo & Justice Hill

Okonkwo brings sleeper appeal alongside new QB Cam Ward. Tennessee's also thin at pass catcher behind Calvin Ridley.

You know about Derrick Henry’s durability, with back-to-back seasons of 17 games played. But there are no sure things in fantasy, especially at RB.

If an injury strikes the veteran, Hill would see 12+ touches per game on one of the NFL’s best offenses.

Next Best: Keenan Allen & Josh Palmer

Allen returned to the Chargers in August, reuniting him with QB Justin Herbert. There's not a high ceiling to chase, but he figures to earn a sizable target share alongside a WR corps that's unproven behind Ladd McConkey.

Palmer's new contract shows the Bills have high expectations. Maybe his connection with QB Josh Allen takes some time to develop, but at this stage in the draft, it's worth grabbing a starter on one of the NFL's top offenses.

Other Options

• Michael Penix Jr.
• Amari Cooper
• Darius Slayton

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Blake Corum & Dyami Brown

There's a chance Corum sees more work in Year 2. He'll need to beat out rookie Jarquez Hunter.

Brown signed for a sizable sum (one year, $10 million). Now, Jacksonville proceeded to draft Travis Hunter, which explains Brown’s low placement here.

Still, you can view the veteran as a Slayton-like handcuff, playable if Hunter or Brian Thomas Jr. miss time.

Next Best: Kendre Miller & Mike Gesicki

Miller won the No. 2 RB job in New Orleans. A potential in-season trade of Alvin Kamara could vault the youngster into a lead-back role.

Consider Gesicki a TE2 flier who’s usable in the right matchup. He’d likely join the TE1 mix in any game that Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins miss.

We saw some of that last year, when Gesicki went off for 7 catches and 91 yards in a Week 2 game without Higgins.

Also note: The Bengals made it a priority to re-sign the veteran TE, despite clear holes on defense. Gesicki’s deal calls for $6.5 million guaranteed and an average annual value of $8.5 million.

Other Options

• Dontayvion Wicks
• Will Shipley
• DJ Giddens
• Theo Johnson
• Juwan Johnson

Rounds 15 & 16

Here are three DSTs with favorable early-season schedules:

• Broncos (vs. TEN, at IND)
• Steelers (at NYJ, vs. SEA, at NE)
• 49ers (at SEA, at NO)

Discount kicker options include:

• Matt Gay, Commanders
• Daniel Carlson, Raiders
• Cam Little, Jaguars

The Best 16-Team Draft Strategy: A Custom Game Plan to Fit Any League

Round-by-round strategy is a strong start.

But fantasy drafts never go according to plan. One snipe, one run, one panic pick and suddenly you're scrambling.

That's why you need a cheat sheet that adapts as you draft.

It updates in real time as your draft unfolds, using 17 value indicators to make sure you’re making the absolute best pick each time you’re on the clock.

CREATE YOUR DRAFT WAR ROOM TODAY