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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 12

Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week?

If your trade deadline is looming, then this week’s moves become even more important.

Maybe you’re fighting to get into the playoffs.

Or maybe you’re in good shape there and looking to get that final piece to win you the title.

Either way, you should be less concerned with market valuations of players at this point in the fantasy football season. All that matters is optimizing your team.

Win Your Trade

That doesn’t mean we’re ignoring the market. We’re still using those valuations to highlight players who might be over- or under-valued.

Why? Because the gaps in outlook between individual players can often be smaller than most fantasy players perceive. So if two players look close in rest-of-way outlook, let’s chase the cheaper one and try to retain more potential production.

But it’s too late in the season to go shopping for cheap “what ifs.” You should be focused on players who look ready to help your roster now. Or at least during the playoffs.

That’s what we’re focused on here. And we’ll look back on the recommendations of the past couple of weeks to see if those guys still make sense – and/or present opportunity – as well.

Find Your Trade Value Chart

Trade value charts can help you find similarly valued assets and compare the values on proposed trades. We have an array to fit your situation:

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• TE Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Fantasy Trade Targets

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Draft Sharks Half-PPR Rank: 27
Market Rank: 30
Difference: 3

Harris sits tied for just 34th among RBs in expected half-PPR points per game for the season, according to Pro Football Focus. But that has improved recently.

After five weeks, Harris checked in just 42nd. Then came the Week 6 bye. In the five weeks since, he ranks 21st.

After finishing higher than RB35 in half-PPR just once through the first five games (and merely 17th that week), Harris has cracked the top 12 in three of his past five outings.

And those two bad weeks came against the Jaguars and Browns, who now rank second and first in the league in run-defense DVOA.

Pittsburgh’s schedule through Week 11 ranked third-worst for RB scoring by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. The remaining schedule ranks fifth-best.

And even the three weeks that don’t register as strongly positive RB-scoring matchups find opponents the Steelers will likely be favored against (Cincinnati twice and New England). That should mean run-friendly game scripts – against non-scary defenses.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Draft Sharks Half-PPR Rank: 28
Market Rank: 31
Difference: 3

Flowers has had two disappointing target shares among the past three games, including his mere 3-43 receiving line on 4 targets in last Thursday night’s win over the Bengals.

But the rookie still ranks a solid 23rd among all WRs in target share for the season. He has garnered 11 more targets than any other Raven – 30 more than any teammate not named Mark Andrews. And he ranks 20th among qualifying wideouts in Pro Football Reference’s receiving success rate. Among all qualifying Ravens, only Andrews sits higher.

So Flowers has been centrally involved, has been reliable when thrown to … and would probably have a lot more fantasy managers excited right now if his 68-yard catch-and-run TD against Cincinnati hadn’t been negated by a holding penalty.

Take advantage of this week’s chatter surrounding TE Isaiah Likely to snag the biggest difference maker among Ravens pass catchers for this season’s final stretch.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Draft Sharks Half-PPR Rank: 26
Market Rank: 28
Difference: 2

We mentioned D.K. Metcalf in this space last week, and he still makes sense. But he also continues to be valued significantly higher (half-PPR WR21) than Lockett.

Last week gave us Metcalf’s first weekly finish higher than 18th among half-PPR WRs and just his second inside the top 20. Lockett, meanwhile, has finished three of 10 games among the top 12.

Lockett looked worrisome ahead of Week 11, missing all three practices while dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. That situation continues to add risk, as does the triceps injury Geno Smith suffered last week.

Ignore the Risk?

But both situations should also drive down Lockett’s asking price. He played through the hamstring trouble last week for a decent 5-51 receiving line on 7 targets, despite garnering his smallest snap share of the season and dealing with the Smith injury.

For the season, Lockett leads Metcalf by 0.7 receptions per game and ranks fourth among all qualifying WRs in success rate.

He might be challenged this week by Smith’s iffy status. But Seattle’s schedule ranks third-best for WR scoring the rest of the way.

Recent Buys

Let's look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the previous two weeks and how we'd treat those players now ...

• Swift and Smith each had good outings in the win at K.C. We expect more to come.
• Metcalf's dealing with a toe injury but remains an upside play going forward.
• Taylor's coming off his bye, so nothing has changed vs. last week.
• Brown has totaled just 9 targets, 3 receptions, and 46 yards in Kyler Murray's two games back. We expect that to improve, but we're no longer excited to chase him. He can still be a cheap buy at this point -- or a sell if someone else does still covet the upside.

Fantasy Sells

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders

Draft Sharks Half-PPR Rank: 23
Market Rank: 22
Difference: -1

We made the sale case for Robinson in last week’s article. So why bother hitting him again? Because he delivered another high-end fantasy week in an unconventional way.

Robinson ran for a solid 73 yards on 17 carries in a positive matchup with the Giants but didn’t find the end zone at all. He did, however, find a season-high 9 targets for a season-high 7 receptions. Washington couldn’t have been happy to find Robinson leading the receiving at the end of that loss.

Antonio Gibson’s expected to be a game-time decision for Thursday’s test at Dallas. So we might get another amped-up receiving game from Robinson. But Gibson’s bound to return soon. So we’re not betting on that uptick lasting.

And whether Gibson plays or not, that Dallas matchup has a chance to leave Robinson looking significantly worse by Friday than he does right now.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

Draft Sharks Half-PPR Rank: 34
Market Rank: 26
Difference: -8

Cook is coming off two straight positive outings:

• 120 total yards against the Broncos
• 102 total yards and a TD against the Jets

That gives him just six double-digit weeks of half-PPR scoring through 11 games. Cook sits 25th RBs in half-PPR points per game.

So he has just been OK.

Now he gets the league’s worst RB-scoring matchup in Philly this week. Then his bye. Then two more bad matchups.

Altogether, it’s the second-worst remaining schedule in the league for RB scoring. And it doesn’t help that Buffalo doesn’t care a whole lot about involving the RBs. Cook – as backfield leader – sits just 33rd among RBs in opportunity share for the season.

Royce Freeman and Zack Moss have gotten larger shares of their teams’ touches (in games they’ve played) than Cook has.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Draft Sharks Half-PPR Rank: 33
Market Rank: 31
Difference: -2

What?!? But we’re finally about to see the rookie lead the backfield!

That’s what makes him worth a price check this week. We don’t yet know what Charbonnet can do with control of Seattle’s backfield. We do know that plenty of fantasy managers are excited about his opportunity. And we know he’s got a tough matchup with San Francisco.

Ken Walker appears likely to miss Week 12 with his oblique injury. Beyond that, we don’t yet know.

But we do know that Seattle faces the third-worst remaining schedule for RB scoring – and that’s with San Francisco registering as a fairly neutral matchup. The 49ers have posted two of their best total-defense DVOA ratings in the two weeks since their bye.

The unknowns with Charbonnet could mean unseen upside. That’s why you don’t want to give him away for whatever you can get. But there’s downside risk as well. So check in with the Walker team in your league, or any other RB-needy manager.

Recent Sells

• All of these, of course, are contingent on the value you get back. None is a player you should simply unload to the highest bidder even if the bid stinks.
• Wilson and Hopkins figure to be tougher sells now thanks to negative QB play.
• Kamara's playing time and targets rebounded last time out vs. the game before we wrote him up. But he also matched a season low for carries (9) and garnered his second-fewest touches.

Fantasy Holds

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Everything looks darker in Cincinnati after the Bengals lost QB Joe Burrow to a season-ending wrist injury. So it’s sensible this week to think about selling off any pieces you might have.

But the rest of your league is probably thinking the same thing. So you’re not likely to get full price in return for Mixon. And he’s probably not doomed.

Sure, the offense is bound to be less good. But it’s also likely to lean on Mixon more. The Bengals lead the league in pass rate over expected. Do you think that’ll continue with Jake Browning behind center? Neither do we.

Mixon already ranks eighth in the league in opportunity share. Bet on more rushing lean in the Bengals offense, and perhaps even more RB targets (to help the young QB).

That doesn’t mean you should go out and target Mixon. But he should be … OK.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

This one’s a little less sure than Mixon. Chase is probably too good to stink in fantasy the rest of the way, despite the QB downgrade. Just look at Garrett Wilson.

Actually, that’s probably a good point for comparison. Wilson ranks 12th among WRs in expected half-PPR points per game for the season. He ranks 30th in actual half-PPR points per game.

Will Jake Browning be better than Zach Wilson? We don’t yet know. He has attempted 15 NFL passes since hitting the league as an undrafted free agent in 2019.

You don’t need to cling to Chase this week if someone keeps shopping with an offer that looks good, even if they think they’re buying low. And you could even shop Chase if you’re looking to upgrade another spot.

Just make sure you don’t panic-sell for too little.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Robinson drew a season-high 22 carries last time out. And then the Falcons had their bye.

So we don’t know yet if that loss to the Cardinals represented a workload shift or will stand as an outlier. Robinson’s playing time fell right in line with the rest of his season, though RB Tyler Allgeier played his third-smallest snap total and snap share to date.

If you don’t have Robinson and want to buy the chance that his role is shifting positively, you can certainly take that shot. Just do so knowing that we still might see that share switch back to disappointing coming out of the bye.

Proceed with cautious optimism.

Recent Holds

• Pollard finally found the end zone last week for the first time since Week 1. If that has anyone in your league excited for a rebound and paying an RB1-level price for him, feel free to sell. If not, hang on.
• Montgomery looks like a TD-or-bust RB the rest of the way. But he's in a situation that significantly favors the TD side. That included a score -- and 6.3 yards per rush -- against a Chicago D that has played the run tough.
• Mostert remains the only healthy and productive RB in Miami. Don't sell him. And if someone else seems to undervalue the veteran, feel free to buy.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.