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Week 1 Matchups That Matter: Trevor Lawrence Primed For A Fast Start

Welcome to Week 1’s Matchups That Matter

“Start your studs.”

It’s cliche -- but generally good advice for Week 1 start/sit decisions.

Actually, I’d change it to “Start your studs and players with relatively safe volume projections.” But that doesn’t have the same ring to it.

Point is: Week 1 is not the time to get cute and lean heavily on matchups when making lineup decisions. Because, well ... we don’t have any 2025 matchup data.

So the Week 1 version of Matchups That Matter is the least valuable of the season. (How’s that for a sales job?!)

That doesn’t mean we should ignore the data below completely. Implied totals are calibrated for 2025. And even the 2024 matchup data we’ll be using has some predictive value.

Of course, the Weekly Rankings and Team Intel tool are always your best resources for start/sit decisions.

Good luck in Week 1!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Projected Plays
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Ravens at Bills (50.5)
t-2. Chiefs vs. Chargers (47.5)
t-2. Cowboys at Eagles (47.5)
t-2. Bengals at Browns (47.5)
t-2. Buccaneers at Falcons (47.5)
t-2. Lions at Packers (47.5)
t-7. Dolphins at Colts (46.5)
t-7. Panthers at Jaguars (46.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-28. 49ers at Seahawks (43.5)
t-28. Texans at Rams (43.5)
t-28. Vikings at Bears (43.5)
31. Titans at Broncos (42.5)
32. Steelers at Jets (37.5)

Implied Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week (called "implied points").

Here's how each team stacks up this week:

Highest Implied Points

1. Eagles (28.25)
2. Bengals (26.5)
3. Ravens (26.0)
4. Commanders (25.75)
t-5. Broncos (25.5)
t-5. Jaguars (25.0)
t-5. Cardinals (25.0)

Lowest Implied Points

t-26. Cowboys (20.25)
t-26. Texans (20.25)
t-26. Steelers (20.25)
29. Giants (19.75)
30. Saints (19.0)
31. Jets (17.25)
32. Titans (17.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Commanders (64.9)
2. Eagles (64.6)
3. Lions (64.0)
4. Bengals (63.9)
5. Chiefs (63.7)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Packers (61.4)
29. 49ers (61.1)
30. Panthers (61.0)
31. Chargers (60.5)
32. Titans (59.8)

Weather Concerns

Panthers at Jaguars

There's a chance of thunderstorms throughout this game. Rain in Florida, especially this time of year, tends to be spotty and brief. And if there's lightning in the area, we could see this game delayed while the storm passes. Winds are expected to be just 7-10 mph. We're not adjusting projections for this game.

Raiders at Patriots

Rain is expected before and during this game. Winds will come in at just 5 mph, though, so there shouldn't be a significant impact to the passing or kicking games.

Quarterback

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Bryce Young at Jaguars (+29.4%)
2. Trevor Lawrence vs. Panthers (+22.7%)
3. Michael Penix vs. Buccaneers (+21.7%)
4. Baker Mayfield at Falcons (+19.3%)
5. Jalen Hurts vs. Cowboys (+16.2%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jared Goff at Packers (-14.0%)
29. Daniel Jones vs. Dolphins (-14.3%)
30. Dak Prescott at Eagles (-16.4%)
31. Justin Fields vs. Steelers (-19.0%)
32. J.J. McCarthy at Bears (-21.5%)

Running Back

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jaguars vs. Panthers (+39.9%)
2. Panthers at Jaguars (+21.8%)
3. Ravens at Bills (+14.6%)
4. Commanders vs. Giants (+12.4%)
5. Cardinals at Saints (+12.0%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Packers vs. Lions (-14.3%)
29. Bears vs. Vikings (-15.6%)
30. Rams vs. Texans (-15.9%)
31. Cowboys at Eagles (-25.0%)
32. Chargers vs. Chiefs (-27.5%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Bears vs. Vikings (+16.7%)
2. Panthers at Jaguars (+13.7%)
3. Buccaneers at Falcons (+13.5%)
4. Falcons vs. Buccaneers (+11.2%)
5. Bengals at Browns (+10.8%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Lions at Packers (-10.4%)
29. Seahawks vs. 49ers (-10.7%)
30. Cowboys at Eagles (-11.6%)
31. Broncos vs. Titans (-14.8%)
32. Vikings at Bears (-17.2%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Packers CB Javon Bullard

Seahawks WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp vs. 49ers CBs Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green, and Upton Stout

Bears WRs D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze vs. Vikings CBs Jeff Okudah and Isaiah Rodgers

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks, Paulson Adebo, and Andru Phillips

Colts WR Josh Downs vs. Dolphins CB Jason Marshall Jr.

Patriots WRs Stefon Diggs and Demario Douglas vs. Raiders CBs Eric Stokes, Kyu Kelly, and Jeremy Chinn

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Eagles CBs Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson (questionable, calf/groin)

Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and Kristian Fulton

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Steelers CBs Joey Porter and Darius Slay

Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, Brandon Stephens, and Michael Carter

49ers WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon

Titans WR Calvin Ridley vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Dolphins at Colts (+37.4%)
2. Browns vs. Bengals (+26.8%)
3. Patriots vs. Raiders (+21.8%)
4. Panthers at Jaguars (+20.9%)
5. Jaguars vs. Panthers (+19.9%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Seahawks vs. 49ers (-16.4%)
29. Packers vs. Lions (-19.8%)
30. Cowboys at Eagles (-23.7%)
31. Commanders vs. Giants (-25.2%)
32. Chiefs vs. Chargers (-28.0%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Bengals at Browns (+100.0%)
2. Broncos vs. Titans (+86.0%)
3. Commanders vs. Giants (+63.5%)
4. Patriots vs. Raiders (+46.5%)
5. Raiders at Patriots (+46.5%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Titans at Broncos (-33.5%)
29. Lions at Packers (-39.5%)
30. Packers vs. Lions (-62.2%)
31. Ravens at Bills (-76.1%)
32. Bills vs. Ravens (-80.9%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Cam Little vs. Panthers (+29.5%)
2. Spencer Schrader vs. Dolphins (+27.2%)
3. Andres Borregales vs. Raiders (+21.5%)
4. Will Reichard at Bears (+16.1%)
5. Chris Boswell at Jets (+15.9%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Tyler Loop at Bills (-21.3%)
29. Jake Bates at Packers (-21.9%)
30. Cairo Santos vs. Vikings (-22.3%)
31. Cameron Dicker vs. Chiefs (-23.2%)
32. Brandon Aubrey at Eagles (-26.2%)

Next Up

Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups: Get Cedric Tillman Before He Explodes

Next Article  

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.