Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 1

Welcome to Week 1’s Matchups That Matter

“Start your studs.”

It’s cliche – but generally good advice for Week 1 start/sit decisions.

Actually, I’d change it to “Start your studs and players with relatively safe volume projections.” But that doesn’t have the same ring to it.

Point is: Week 1 isn’t the time to get cute and lean heavily on matchups when making lineup decisions. Because, well, we don’t have any 2024 matchup data.

So the Week 1 version of Matchups That Matter is the least valuable we’ll have all season. 

That doesn’t mean we should ignore the data below completely. Implied totals are calibrated for 2024. And even the 2023 matchup data we’ll be using has some predictive value.

Of course, the Weekly Rankings and Team Intel tool are always your best resources for start/sit decisions.

Good luck in Week 1!

 

Highest Game Totals

1. Rams at Lions (52.5)

t-2. Packers vs. Eagles (49.5)

t-2. Jaguars at Dolphins (49.5)

4. Texans at Colts (49.0)

5. Cardinals at Bills (46.5)

 

Lowest Game Totals

t-11. Panthers at Saints (41.5)

t-11. Broncos at Seahawks (41.5)

t-13. Vikings at Giants (41.0)

t-13. Cowboys at Browns (41.0)

t-13. Patriots at Bengals (41.0)

16. Raiders at Chargers (40.0)

 

Highest Implied Points

1. Lions (28.5)

2. Bills (26.5)

3. Dolphins (26.25)

4. Texans (26.0)

5. Eagles (25.75)

 

Lowest Implied Points

27. Cowboys (19.25)

t-28. Steelers (19.0)

t-28. Panthers (19.0)

30. Raiders (18.5)

31. Broncos (17.75)

32. Patriots (16.75)

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Eagles (65.8)

2. Lions (65.5)

3. Bills (65.3)

4. Jaguars (64.9)

5. Browns (64.7)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

t-28. Broncos (61.5)

t-28. Raiders (61.5)

30. 49ers (61.4)

31. Steelers (60.8)

32. Patriots (60.5)

 

Weather Concerns

Cardinals at Bills

15-20 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph. That might end up impacting a few deep passes and kicks, but we're not making any projections changes.

 

Quarterback

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Baker Mayfield vs. Commanders (+29.4%)

2. Jordan Love vs. Eagles (+28.5%)

3. Gardner Minshew at Chargers (+19.2%)

4. Anthony Richardson vs. Texans (+16.8%)

5. Russell Wilson at Falcons (+16.7%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Aaron Rodgers at 49ers (-17.7%)

29. Dak Prescott at Browns (-18.8%)

30. Derek Carr vs. Panthers (-26.2%)

31. Patrick Mahomes vs. Ravens (-28.7%)

32. Brock Purdy vs. Jets (-29.5%)

Sneaky Starters

Jared Goff, Lions

We start Goff at home.

In 17 home games over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 277 yards and 2.5 TDs on a 68% completion rate and 7.9 yards per attempt. He’s finished as a top eight fantasy QB in 10 of those 17 games (59%). 

Goff is home for the Rams on Sunday night in the week’s highest game total (52.5 points). Detroit’s 28.5-point implied total is the highest of Week 1.

Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith opens at home for a Denver defense that ranked 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs last year. CB Patrick Surtain can contain one of Seattle’s three WRs – but the other two should have their way with this secondary.

The Seahawks’ 23.75-point implied total is 10th highest in Week 1.

 

Running Back

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Seahawks vs. Broncos (+32.2%)

2. Bills vs. Cardinals (+27.8%)

3. Texans at Colts (+25.6%)

4. Buccaneers vs. Commanders (+25.2%)

5. Broncos at Seahawks (+16.4%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Chiefs vs. Ravens (-12.8%)

29. Browns vs. Cowboys (-13.3%)

30. Commanders at Buccaneers (-20.4%)

31. Rams at Lions (-20.9%)

32. Lions vs. Rams (-24.9%)

Sneaky Starters

Jerome Ford, Browns

Nick Chubb is out, and the Browns are so enamored with D’Onta Foreman that they exposed him to the rest of the league by letting him go during final cuts.

Ford should operate as Cleveland’s clear lead back out of the gate – and might see even more work than the 12.1 carries and 4.0 targets he averaged in 14 full games without Chubb last year.

Sunday’s matchup vs. Dallas is difficult. But the Browns are 2.5-point home favorites, so game flow shouldn’t work against Ford.

Devin Singletary, Giants

Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy figures to cut into Singletary’s workload at some point this season. But it’s unlikely to happen in Week 1, especially after Tracy missed some time in August with an ankle injury.

Singletary got workhorse usage in the second preseason game (with Tracy sidelined), playing 88% of the offensive snaps in the first half.

He gets what looks like a neutral matchup in the opener vs. Minnesota.

 

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Buccaneers vs. Commanders (+33.2%)

2. Packers vs. Eagles (+32.5%)

3. Rams at Lions (+17.8%)

4. Jaguars at Dolphins (+16.2%)

5. Raiders at Chargers (+15.5%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Cowboys at Browns (-16.6%)

29. Browns vs. Cowboys (-17.2%)

30. Ravens at Chiefs (-21.7%)

31. Saints vs. Panthers (-22.3%)

32. 49ers vs. Jets (-39.3%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Giants CBs Adoree Jackson and Deonte Banks

Texans WRs Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell vs. Colts CBs JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones

Saints WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Troy Hill

Buccaneers WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Michael Davis, and Mike Sainristil

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Dolphins CB Kader Kohou

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome

49ers WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel vs. Jets WRs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Bears WR D.J. Moore vs. Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell

Sneaky Starters

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, WRs, Seahawks

Don’t be surprised if Broncos CB Patrick Surtain shadows WR D.K. Metcalf this weekend. That’d likely push extra volume towards Smith-Njigba and Lockett in advantageous matchups.

JSN will primarily see slot CB Ja'Quan McMillian, who ranked 72nd among 125 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus coverage grade and 102nd in passer rating allowed in coverage last year.

Lockett will draw Riley Moss, who played just 23 defensive snaps as a rookie last season.

Khalil Shakir, Bills

We’ll see if rookie WR Keon Coleman is ready for a big role out of the gate. WR Curtis Samuel will be playing through turf toe on Sunday (although he’s been a full-go in practice this week).

That leaves Shakir projected to lead Bills WRs in targets this weekend. And he draws a plus matchup vs. an exploitable Cardinals secondary.

Buffalo’s 27.25-point implied total is tied for the highest of the week.

Jameson Williams, Lions

We talked above about the excellent Week 1 spot for QB Jared Goff. That funnels down to Williams, who had a strong offseason by all accounts. He enters the season as Detroit’s clear-cut No. 2 WR.

Williams will see plenty of Rams CB Tre’Davious White on Sunday night. White is 29 now and has played just 10 games over the last two seasons due to ACL and Achilles injuries. He could struggle with Williams’ speed.

 

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Seahawks vs. Broncos (+21.3%)

2. Jaguars at Dolphins (+16.7%)

3. Colts vs. Texans (+15.8%)

4. Texans at Colts (+13.4%)

5. Steelers at Falcons (+9.4%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Bengals vs. Patriots (-12.5%)

29. Cowboys at Browns (-16.1%)

30. Jets at 49ers (-16.6%)

31. Bears vs. Titans (-21.4%)

32. Saints vs. Panthers (-23.7%)

Sneaky Starter

Tyler Conklin, Jets

It’s a tough matchup for Conklin against a San Francisco defense that ranked third in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs last year. (Although they will be without LB Dre Greenlaw.)

But Conklin is a nice target bet if you’re looking outside the top 11 or 12 TEs. WR Mike Williams will be limited in Week 1 coming off his ACL tear. And the Jets are 4-point underdogs, which could mean boosted pass volume in catch-up mode.

Conklin finished 13th among TEs in targets last year. You just didn’t notice because New York’s QB play was so bad.

 

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Vikings at Giants (+76.5%)

2. 49ers vs. Jets (70.8%)

3. Saints vs. Panthers (+59.2%)

4. Buccaneers vs. Commanders (+51.9%)

5. Bengals vs. Patriots (+50.3%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Rams at Lions (-30.0%)

29. Eagles vs. Packers (-30.6%)

30. Cardinals at Bills (-38.2%)

31. Browns vs. Cowboys (-41.2%)

32. Jets at 49ers (-50.1%)

Sneaky Starters

Bengals

The Patriots will be trotting out QB Jacoby Brissett behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

If you could start “DST vs. New England” every week this season, you’d likely have a top-5 unit.

Saints

We’ll see if the Panthers offense takes a step forward under new HC Dave Canales. But the oddsmakers aren’t very optimistic. Carolina’s 19.0-point implied total is tied for fourth-lowest on the week.

Last year’s Panthers were the third-best matchup for opposing DSTs.

Vikings

This is a blitz-happy defense facing QB Daniel Jones in his first regular-season action since last November’s ACL tear.

Sounds like sack and turnover upside to me.

 

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Cairo Santos vs. Titans (+41.0%)

2. Ka’imi Fairbairn at Colts (+35.9%)

3. Chase McLaughlin vs. Commanders (+33.4%)

4. Chris Boswell at Falcons (+30.0%)

5. Jake Moody vs. Jets (+18.6%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Matt Prater at Bills (-14.2%)

29. Jason Sanders vs. Jaguars (-15.1%)

30. Cam Little at Dolphins (-15.5%)

31. Justin Tucker at Chiefs (-24.4%)

32. Brandon Aubrey at Browns (-28.8%)

Sneaky Starter

Jake Bates, Lions

He’s yet to attempt a regular-season kick, but Bates checks every box we’re looking for in a spot-start kicker:

1. He’s kicking indoors
2. His team is a 4.5-point favorite
3. His team has a 28.5-point implied total – highest on the week

Bates spent last year with the UFL’s Michigan Panthers, where he went 17 of 22 on FGs, including a 64-yarder. He made six of seven FG tries this preseason.