Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 2

Trading makes fantasy fun. 

I enjoy a good fantasy draft, but trading will always have my heart. 

And that's why I started to build tools and charts to help people trade more. Trading improves activity, and an active league is a happy league. 

This chart will be a little different. 

This fantasy football trade value chart is all about understanding the market and looking for opportunities to gain profit.

The more value we have on our teams, the better they will be. 

(At least on paper.) 

Check out all our chart options:

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• Tight End Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Process

To make the market version of the fantasy football trade value chart, I aggregate expert consensus rankings and use them to feed my model. The goal is to align players within their positional groups and then look for crossover points across positions. Expert rankings (ECR) feed the market model since most users follow experts (duh). 

I then run the Draft Sharks rankings through the same model and normalize the scale to 100. 

Comparing ECR and Draft Shark’s values generates the VS Market field on the chart. The Trend is the Draft Sharks Values vs. the previous week. 

How to use a trade value chart

Add player values (left column) on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. Add up the values of multiple players on each side, and you can look at larger trades.

That is a basic answer but does not do the question justice.

Trade value charts are designed for one-for-one trades and don’t do a great job when looking at larger or lopsided trades. Two-for-one and three-for-one trades need to account for the benefits a top-tier player adds to a team and for freeing up roster spots. In two-for-one, three-for-one, or three-for-two type trades, the side sending more players needs to overpay for the smaller side.

For example, if you are trading for a player with a value of 75 and want to send two players, they likely need a combined value of 30-50% more than 75 (98-113).

Use trade value charts to look for positional swaps

Let’s say I have a ton of RB depth, and I want to trade an RB of 35 value for a WR. I'll look for WRs around 35 in value and check the rosters to see if they are weak at RB.

I'm looking for “win-win” trades that are likely to get done.

I find sending lopsided and/or nonsense trades that aren’t helping both sides wastes time.

Fantasy Trade Value Chart Vs. Market – Week 2

Fantasy Trade Targets

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Draft Sharks Value: 46
Market: 30
Profit: +16 

The concern was that Zach Charbonnet would take a significant share from Walker right away. That just didn’t happen in Week 1.

Walker handled nearly 71% of the RB carries and got a majority of the passing game work. He dominated the backfield. 

The market is correcting too slowly to the situation. Buy where you can. 

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

DS Value: 66.5
Market: 21
Profit: +45.5 

Did Cooper Kupp’s leg fall off? Is this an overreaction to the breakout Week 1 performance from Puka Nacua (10 catches for 119 yards)?

There is a chance Kupp will return in Week 5 and dominate the rest of the year. Buy LOW on Kupp if the manager is panicking. This gap will be the largest we see all season. 

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

DS Value: 18.5
Market: 10.5
Profit: +8

The market is pricing Njoku like he's a part of the TE wasteland. We price him just above that group. 

Njoku had a forgettable Week 1 (3 catches for 24 yards) in a game seriously affected by weather.

He has the upside to be the second or third target on what we are projecting to be an above-average offense. 

You could do worse. 

Honorable mentions:

Fantasy Sells 

Samaje Perine, RB, Denver Broncos

DS Value: 0.5
Market: 12.5 
Disparity: -12

Throughout his career, Perine has shown he is “fine.” (And he has spent much of it being less than that.)

We aren’t really interested in fine. 

Javonte Williams was the lead RB in his first regular-season game since last year's multi-ligament knee injury.

His role should only grow going forward, at Perine’s expense.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

Draftsharks Value: 52
Market: 59
Disparity: -7

What could have been? That was a sweet, sweet 75 seconds, but that is all we will get of Aaron Rodgers throwing to Garrett Wilson. Zach Wilson is a significant downgrade.

This one is just sad. If you can still get someone to take a shot on Wilson, now might be the best time to cash out.

Honorable mentions:

Fantasy Holds

Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

People who didn't watch the game and only looked at the box score will push Roschon Johnson on you.

Jonson was not the lead back. He was not even the second RB. Herbert started, and even D’Onta Foreman played over Johnson.

The rookie didn't get work until the third quarter, when the Bears were already down several scores. 

Herbert will have better weeks. Hold tight. 

Trading is Just Part of Your In-Season Strategy

Want more strategy tips on how to refine and guide your fantasy football roster throughout the season? Check out this video.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.