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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 4

Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week?

Would you have gone for the record if you were Mike McDaniel? 

Just 3 points away from 73. 

I might have. But I'm a bad person.

Anyways …

We lost Mike Williams to a season-ending knee injury. But overall, we otherwise had decent injury success in Week 3.

This means the trade value chart did not change too dramatically. Plus we are one week closer to maybe seeing Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor on a football field.  That should put a smile on your face. 

Just like making charts puts a smile on mine. 

Check out all our chart options:

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• Tight End Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Process

To make the market version of the fantasy football trade value chart, I aggregate expert consensus rankings and use them to feed my model.

The goal is to align players within their positional groups and then look for crossover points across positions. Expert rankings (ECR) feed the market model since most users follow experts (duh). 

I then run the Draft Sharks rankings through the same model and normalize the scale to 100. 

Comparing ECR and Draft Sharks values generates the VS Market field on the chart. The Trend is the DS values vs. the previous week. 

How to Use a Trade Value Chart

Add player values (left column) on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. Add up the values of multiple players on each side, and you can look at larger trades.

That's a basic answer but doesn't do the question justice.

Trade value charts are designed for one-for-one trades and don’t do a great job when looking at larger or lopsided trades.

Two-for-one and three-for-one trades need to account for the benefits a top-tier player adds to a team and for freeing up roster spots. In two-for-one, three-for-one, or three-for-two type trades, the side sending more players needs to overpay for the smaller side.

For example, if you are trading for a player with a value of 75 and want to send two players, they likely need a combined value of 30-50% more than 75 (98-113).

Use Trade Value Charts to Look for Positional Swaps

Let’s say I have a ton of RB depth, and I want to trade an RB of 35 value for a WR. I'll look for WRs around 35 in value and check the rosters to see if they are weak at RB.

I'm looking for “win-win” trades that are likely to get done.

I find sending lopsided and/or nonsense trades that aren’t helping both sides wastes time.

Fantasy Trade Value Chart vs. Market – Week 4

Fantasy Trade Targets

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

DS Value: 24.0
Market: 20.0
Profit: +4

I hope you all got to miss the Chiefs-Bears game last week. It was not a good way to spend a couple of hours.

Assuming you missed it and checked out the box score, it might look like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon were more involved than they really were. 

Pacheco started and led the backfield before the game turned into a complete blowout, playing 32 of Patrick Mahomes' 56 snaps.

CEH got on the field with Blaine Gabbert to close out the third and fourth quarters. 

Pacheco is healthy following offseason surgery. Seems like a prime buy at his market rate. 

Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants

DS Value: 27
Market: 22
Profit: +5 

Waller sits sixth among TEs in target share and tied for fifth in total targets. 

According to PFF, he is scoring 2 PPR points less per game than expected for his usage.

Waller is getting the work. And the hamstring that made him questionable heading into Week 1 hasn't been a problem.

He is the perfect buy-low TE who will have positive TD regression and easier matchups in the future.  

Honorable mentions:

Running Back

Gus Edwards +11
David Montgomery +16
Kyren Williams +18

Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp +16
Mike Evans +9
Christian Kirk +7

Tight Ends

David Njoku +10
Mark Andrews +16

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen +16

Fantasy Sells 

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

DS Value:  13.5
Market: 26.5
Disparity: -16

D.J. Moore had solid outings in Week 2 and Week 3 that are artificially keeping his market price inflated. 

The Chicago Bears are bad, bad. The offense is broken on a fundamental level, and it doesn’t seem likely that the coaching staff and Fields will be able to work it out to maintain top-24 value for Moore. 

The wideout is still somehow being ranked by the market near the WR2 tier. We have him as a low-end WR3. 

Get out while you can. 

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

DS Value: 33.5
Market:  41
Disparity: -7.5

Gibbs is fast (4.36 40-yard dash). But he still has a lot to improve to be a top NFL RB. He has not looked great between the tackles and has the tendency to bounce things outside too often. 

Per PFF, Gibbs is currently graded as the 48th-best RB at pass blocking (26.0), which is leading to inconsistent passing work. 

He is not a must-sell but a “can-sell.”

The market is pricing him to have a big breakout campaign in 2023. But that seems more likely to happen in 2024 or later (if it does).

David Montgomery could return as soon as this week, and figures to lead the team in carries and goal-line work. 

Honorable mentions:

Running Back

Ken Walker -9

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper -18
Garrett Wilson -7

Fantasy Holds

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

Williams is leading the Broncos in rush attempts, rushing success, carries inside the five, missed tackles, explosive carries, yards after contact, and target share. 

He is the dude. 

The market seems to be holding onto Samaje Perine as a prominent piece of this offense. But this is the Williams show. 

He is a hold or soft buy. We are still worried about the Denver offense as a whole. 

Trading is Just Part of Your In-Season Strategy

Want more strategy tips on how to refine and guide your fantasy football roster throughout the season? Check out this video.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.