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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 5

Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week?

We're four weeks in, and we now have a pretty good idea about our fantasy teams and the NFL landscape. 

We always try not to overreact to the first week or two. Now, we have enough data that we can make some real choices and move forward.  

It's time to really look at your fantasy teams and decide your overall strategy. 

For all but about five teams in your league, the weakness is TE. 

Every. Dang. Year. 

Let’s see what we can do about it.

Check out all our chart options:

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• Tight End Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Process

To make the market version of the fantasy football trade value chart, I aggregate expert consensus rankings and use them to feed my model.

The goal is to align players within their positional groups and then look for crossover points across positions. Expert rankings (ECR) feed the market model since most users follow experts (duh). 

I then run the Draft Sharks rankings through the same model and normalize the scale to 100. 

Comparing ECR and Draft Sharks values generates the VS Market field on the chart. The Trend is the DS values vs. the previous week. 

How to Use a Trade Value Chart

Add player values (left column) on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. Add up the values of multiple players on each side, and you can look at larger trades.

That's a basic answer but doesn't do the question justice.

Trade value charts are designed for one-for-one trades and don’t do a great job when looking at larger or lopsided trades.

Two-for-one and three-for-one trades need to account for the benefits a top-tier player adds to a team and for freeing up roster spots. In two-for-one, three-for-one, or three-for-two type trades, the side sending more players needs to overpay for the smaller side.

For example, if you are trading for a player with a value of 75 and want to send two players, they likely need a combined value of 30-50% more than 75 (98-113).

Use Trade Value Charts to Look for Positional Swaps

Let’s say I have a ton of RB depth, and I want to trade an RB of 35 value for a WR. I'll look for WRs around 35 in value and check the rosters to see if they are weak at RB.

I'm looking for “win-win” trades that are likely to get done.

I find sending lopsided and/or nonsense trades that aren’t helping both sides wastes time.

Fantasy Trade Value Chart Vs. Market - Week 5

Fantasy Trade Targets

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Draft Sharks Value: 35.5
Market: 29.5
Profit: +6

What we said last week holds true: Pacheco is still a buy.

By nearly all advanced metrics, Pacheco is the Chiefs' best RB. On top of that, he is getting the work.

We don’t need to point to yards-per-carry-while-Mars-is-in-retrograde (YPCWMR for short) to justify acquiring Pacheco. 

He’s good. 

He’s getting the work. 

He is on a good offense. 

He is coming off a good week, and his fantasy manager might feel like they are “selling high.” That is OK. Let them think that.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans

DS Value: 31.5
Market:  21.5
Profit: +10

Pierce sits 18th in expected PPR points so far, according to Pro Football Focus. Actual points per game? Tied for 32nd.

Why? Because the workload's been fine. Pierce ranks seventh in the league in carries. He sits 14th among RBs in opportunity share and 15th in carry share.

His O-line has not been fine, ranking just 23rd in adjusted line yards while dealing with multiple injuries. That's bound to improve.

Even with that challenge, the offense has been surprisingly effective: 14th in total DVOA; fifth in passing.

That combo makes this a good setting for Pierce to rebound.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles 

DS Value: 7.5
Market: 10
Profit: None

Draft Sharks is a little under the market for Goedert’s value. But I still want to highlight him as a buy. 

We have years of Goedert being a good player. We know he is talented. 

According to PFF, he is fourth-highest in expected points delta, at -2.6/game. That means, based on his usage and team, we would have expected him to score a full 2.6 more points per game so far.

That would take him from irrelevant to “fine” territory. 

The Goedert manager is likely fed up at this point. They might have grabbed Hunter Henry or Jake Ferguson. 

Send a low offer for Goedert. Don’t overpay. See if the Eagles offense chooses to feature him more -- which it sounds like they want to do -- low cost and worth the risk. 

Honorable mentions:

Running Back

Kyren Williams +29 (good luck)
David Montgomery +20
Breece Hall+ 6
Zach Moss +11 (risky; only buy him at reserve level)

Wide Receiver 

Cooper Kupp +27
Jameson Williams +9

Tight Ends

Sam Laporta +17

Fantasy Sells 

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

DS Value:  5
Market: 15
Disparity: -10

We might not like it, but Najee Harris is here to stay, and he is the lead back for the Steelers. Harris is averaging 12.3 rush attempts per game to Warren’s 6.3. Per Pro Football Reference, Harris is earning a higher success rate on the ground, 47% vs. 44%.

Harris is beating Warren in nearly every advanced rushing metric. 

Harris is not going away. People are wishcasting. 

Warren is dominating the RB target share. Warren is rocking a 15.2% target share. He is leading all RBs in yards after catch and ranks fifth in yards per catch after contact. (Thanks in part to an average target depth of -1.2 yards.) 

The market is valuing Warren like he might overtake Harris and run away with the job. 

Sell that. 

Get away from this trash backfield and move on. 

Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears

DS Value: 0.5
Market:  10.5
Disparity: -10

A wise man once said, “ Get away from this trash backfield and move on.“ 

I present to you: the Chicago Bears’ backfield. 

Roschon Johnson is the backup RB on a bad offense with a bad offensive line. It is smart to roster handcuff RBs, but we want them to be able to drop into a good (or better) situation if the starter went down. 

Zach Moss, Gainwell, Gus Edwards, and Shuba Hubbard are all RBS ranked ahead of Johnson by the market that I would prefer to Roschon. 

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

DS Value: 27.5
Market:  49
Disparity: -21.5

This guy has paid off BIG time already if you drafted him at cost. But how sustainable is that?

Aiyuk has caught 85% of his passes through three appearances. You don't need historical numbers to realize he won't keep that going. Even his career rate of 67.2% is high for the position -- and would mark a drop of nearly 20 percentage points.

Aiyuk is also averaging 18.8 yards per catch, 5.0 higher than his career average and 0.7 higher than 2022 league leader Jaylen Waddle's average. (Gabe Davis and A.J. Brown were the only others to reach 17.0.)

The 49er sits ninth among WRs in PPR points per game so far; tied for just 29th in expected PPR points per game, per PFF.

That, folks, is what you call a clear regression candidate.

Honorable mentions:

Running Back

Travis Etienne -13
Khalil Herber -2
Tajae Spears -7 

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk -21
Jaylen Waddle -21

Fantasy Holds

Hold “mid” Running backs 

Miles Sanders, Rachadd White, James Conner, and Alexander Mattison. 

Welcome to RB Limbo: Guys that we don’t really want to buy and can’t sell for value. Sometimes assets just get to a funky spot where it is hard to move them. 

This year, it's these guys. You can probably throw a couple more in there, too. 

Best to just hold and see if their situations improve.

Trading is Just Part of Your In-Season Strategy

Want more strategy tips on how to refine and guide your fantasy football roster throughout the season? Check out this video.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.